Tuesday, December 30, 2008
About this Blog
However, if we look at the absolute number of HDB upgraders of 582 in Q4 2008, the number has actually plunged to the lowest level this year and a far cry from the almost 3000 in Q2 2007 during the property peak. The sharp decline in the number of upgraders may reflect that despite the rising HDB resale prices, even HDB upgraders are cooling off from the private property market.
It maybe more accurate to interpret the data as a decline in the proportion of other types of buyers which include speculators, specuvestors, home-buyers etc; rather than an increase in the proportion of upgraders. In a nutshell, I'd see the data as being more reflective of the fleeing of speculators from the private property market, rather than an increased interest in private property among HDB upgraders.
May also want to read:
HDB Upgraders: Lessons learnt from the Property Boom-Bust of the 90s
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
HDB upgraders to private properties increased by proportion but decreased by absolute number: Even HDB upgraders are cooling
BT reported on 30 Dec 2008 that according to DTZ's analysis, the percentage of HDB upgraders continued to grow. In 2008, a higher proportion of purchasers with HDB addresses was registered with 37 per cent of all buyers expected to be HDB upgraders in 2008 compared to 22 per cent in 2007. Based on available caveats in URA's REALIS, the number of buyers with HDB addresses in Q408 is 582. While this is a preliminary number, it represents 43 per cent of total caveats lodged so far in the fourth quarter. DTZ noted that this is higher than the 41 per cent in Q308, 36 per cent in Q208, and 28 per cent in Q108.
However, if we look at the absolute number of HDB upgraders of 582 in Q4 2008, the number has actually plunged to the lowest level this year and a far cry from the almost 3000 in Q2 2007 during the property peak. The sharp decline in the number of upgraders may reflect that despite the rising HDB resale prices, even HDB upgraders are cooling off from the private property market.
It maybe more accurate to interpret the data as a decline in the proportion of other types of buyers which include speculators, specuvestors, home-buyers etc; rather than an increase in the proportion of upgraders. In a nutshell, I'd see the data as being more reflective of the fleeing of speculators from the private property market, rather than an increased interest in private property among HDB upgraders.
May also want to read:
HDB Upgraders: Lessons learnt from the Property Boom-Bust of the 90s
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
This follows two consecutive quarters of declines of around 4.5 per cent each.
The prime districts include District 9, 10 and 11.
Overall average prime prices fell 21.6 per cent year-on-year (yoy) to $1,160 per square foot (psf), below the level of $1,200 psf registered in Q207.
Freehold non-landed homes outside the prime districts fell in Q408 but at a lower rate of 9.3 per cent qoq or 10.5 per cent yoy.
Landed housing prices also fell 5.7 per cent qoq, or 2.9 per cent yoy, islandwide in Q408.
The fall in prices follows dismal developer sales in October and November with only 112 and 192 units sold in the primary market respectively, compared to the monthly average of 444 units sold in the first nine months of the year.
DTZ said that based on caveats lodged, preliminary data from URA's REALIS showed that the number of transactions in the year is only about 35 per cent of last year's 38,100 units.
DTZ is also forecasting a further decline of 15-20 per cent for this segment of the market in 2009.
DTZ said that the downturn in the economy will deter buyers from committing to property purchases and sales are expected to continue to remain low in 2009.
Lower rental returns will not help either.
DTZ said that average monthly rents of prime non-landed homes decreased in Q408 by 9.4 per cent qoq or 9.2 per cent yoy to $4.36 psf.
Outside the prime districts, rents held up better with an increase of 2 per cent yoy, despite a fall of 1.2 per cent qoq.
The extent of price corrections is still uncertain but Nomura has already adjusted its forecasts. In March, it forecast average prices in the luxury sector to fall by 32.3 per cent from the 2007 peak over 2008-2010 - 16.9 per cent in 2008, 10.3 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010.
It now expects luxury prices to fall 43.8 per cent from the peak, and mass residential prices to fall 32.1 per cent as yields move out by an additional 25-50 basis-points.
OCBC analysts also believe that high-end property prices could decline by 15-20 per cent in 2009 due to weak sentiment, unsold inventories and potential risks of buyers' default and fire-sales.
OCBC expects mass market property prices to remain resilient, supported by the stability in HDB prices. For the mid-market properties, it expects prices to fall further in 2009, with a projected decline of 5-10 per cent.
Extracted from BT 30 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Private Property Price in 2009: Analysts forecast further decline of 15%-20%
Based on its preliminary analysis of official data, DTZ said that prices of non-landed freehold private homes in the prime districts fell by 14 per cent quarter-on-quarter (qoq) in the fourth quarter of 2008.This follows two consecutive quarters of declines of around 4.5 per cent each.
The prime districts include District 9, 10 and 11.
Prime property prices fell 21.6% year-on-year
Overall average prime prices fell 21.6 per cent year-on-year (yoy) to $1,160 per square foot (psf), below the level of $1,200 psf registered in Q207.
Freehold non-landed homes outside the prime districts fell in Q408 but at a lower rate of 9.3 per cent qoq or 10.5 per cent yoy.
Landed housing prices also fell 5.7 per cent qoq, or 2.9 per cent yoy, islandwide in Q408.
The fall in prices follows dismal developer sales in October and November with only 112 and 192 units sold in the primary market respectively, compared to the monthly average of 444 units sold in the first nine months of the year.
DTZ said that based on caveats lodged, preliminary data from URA's REALIS showed that the number of transactions in the year is only about 35 per cent of last year's 38,100 units.
DTZ forecast property price to further decline by 15%-20% in 2009
DTZ is also forecasting a further decline of 15-20 per cent for this segment of the market in 2009.
DTZ said that the downturn in the economy will deter buyers from committing to property purchases and sales are expected to continue to remain low in 2009.
Lower rental returns will not help either.
DTZ said that average monthly rents of prime non-landed homes decreased in Q408 by 9.4 per cent qoq or 9.2 per cent yoy to $4.36 psf.
Outside the prime districts, rents held up better with an increase of 2 per cent yoy, despite a fall of 1.2 per cent qoq.
Nomura forecast property price fall of 43.8% in high end market and 32.1% in mass market
The extent of price corrections is still uncertain but Nomura has already adjusted its forecasts. In March, it forecast average prices in the luxury sector to fall by 32.3 per cent from the 2007 peak over 2008-2010 - 16.9 per cent in 2008, 10.3 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010.
It now expects luxury prices to fall 43.8 per cent from the peak, and mass residential prices to fall 32.1 per cent as yields move out by an additional 25-50 basis-points.
OCBC forecast high-end propety price to fall by 15-20% and mass market by 5-10%
OCBC analysts also believe that high-end property prices could decline by 15-20 per cent in 2009 due to weak sentiment, unsold inventories and potential risks of buyers' default and fire-sales.
OCBC expects mass market property prices to remain resilient, supported by the stability in HDB prices. For the mid-market properties, it expects prices to fall further in 2009, with a projected decline of 5-10 per cent.
Extracted from BT 30 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
This, compared to the monthly average of 444 units sold in the first nine months of the year. The October sales volume is the lowest since the release of official monthly sales data by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) in June 2007.
For the full year, DTZ estimated that the number of home sales in the primary and secondary markets will only make up about 35 per cent of last year's sales, which saw some 38,100 units sold. The figure is based on caveats lodged with the URA so far.
At the same time, the fall in private home prices have started to gather pace in the fourth quarter, with prime non-landed properties the hardest hit. Prices of non-landed freehold private homes in the prime districts fell by 14 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months ended December, according to DTZ Research. Overall, average private home prices have fallen 21.6 per cent year-on-year to S$1,160 per square feet, below the level of S$1,200 per sq ft in the second quarter of 2007.
Meanwhile, average monthly rents of prime non-landed homes have fallen 9.2 per cent to S$4.36 per square feet.
DTZ expects home sales to remain low next year as the recession takes its toll and homebuyers are concerned over job security.
Posted by anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Private home sale, price, rent falls SHARPLY Q4 2008
According to a report released Monday by property consultant DTZ, only 112 private homes were sold in the primary market in October, and 192 units sold in November.This, compared to the monthly average of 444 units sold in the first nine months of the year. The October sales volume is the lowest since the release of official monthly sales data by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) in June 2007.
Private property sales in 2008 only 35% of 2007's
For the full year, DTZ estimated that the number of home sales in the primary and secondary markets will only make up about 35 per cent of last year's sales, which saw some 38,100 units sold. The figure is based on caveats lodged with the URA so far.
Prime non-landed properties hardest hit
At the same time, the fall in private home prices have started to gather pace in the fourth quarter, with prime non-landed properties the hardest hit. Prices of non-landed freehold private homes in the prime districts fell by 14 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months ended December, according to DTZ Research. Overall, average private home prices have fallen 21.6 per cent year-on-year to S$1,160 per square feet, below the level of S$1,200 per sq ft in the second quarter of 2007.
Rents of prime non-landed homes have fallen 9.2%
Meanwhile, average monthly rents of prime non-landed homes have fallen 9.2 per cent to S$4.36 per square feet.
DTZ expects home sales to remain low next year as the recession takes its toll and homebuyers are concerned over job security.
Posted by anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Friday, December 26, 2008
About this Blog
FYI,i have been waiting since 2002 but the price of both HDB & private condo had risen almost every year. Recently,i am eyeing a three room HDB flat in clementi, Queentown or even marine parade but all these almost 30yrs old public housing are asking more than 200k. Do you think think if i have to wait for another one or two yrs will the price of these flats will drop by 30%.
Bear:
Don't bluff lah. Condo prices in 2004 and 2005 were so low - I bought one myself from a seller who made 30% loss. I think you are Mr Lan Lan, throwing red herrings to mislead people again.
Bull:
Mislead people????Any HDB three room flat more than 25yrs in Ang Mio Yio ,Clementi,Queentown or marine parade which are selling below 200k.Please let me know.Merry X'mas.
Bear:
HDB price has been going up steadily only from 2007. It's true that 25 yr old 3-rm HDB are selling above $200K now. Private property also recover only in 2007 but has dropped since Q3 2008, and data continues to show falling prices. These are facts.
You can't use rising HDB price to justify that private property price will also rise. Reason? Though there is real demand for housing, private property price has become unaffordable esp in the years to come as economy gets worse, and even the recovery is expected to be slow and spore will be having years of low growth. Income will drop and affordability will drop further. Plus difficulty in getting bank loans with the credit crunch. What will people with real housing needs do? Go for cheaper, smaller HDB flats! So smaller HDB flats will benefit most, that's why govt is building more of such flats. They have foresight and the data to know that people will be downgrading. As people downgrade, private property price will suffer even more..
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Rising HDB Price will support private property price?
Bull:FYI,i have been waiting since 2002 but the price of both HDB & private condo had risen almost every year. Recently,i am eyeing a three room HDB flat in clementi, Queentown or even marine parade but all these almost 30yrs old public housing are asking more than 200k. Do you think think if i have to wait for another one or two yrs will the price of these flats will drop by 30%.
Bear:
Don't bluff lah. Condo prices in 2004 and 2005 were so low - I bought one myself from a seller who made 30% loss. I think you are Mr Lan Lan, throwing red herrings to mislead people again.
Bull:
Mislead people????Any HDB three room flat more than 25yrs in Ang Mio Yio ,Clementi,Queentown or marine parade which are selling below 200k.Please let me know.Merry X'mas.
Bear:
HDB price has been going up steadily only from 2007. It's true that 25 yr old 3-rm HDB are selling above $200K now. Private property also recover only in 2007 but has dropped since Q3 2008, and data continues to show falling prices. These are facts.
You can't use rising HDB price to justify that private property price will also rise. Reason? Though there is real demand for housing, private property price has become unaffordable esp in the years to come as economy gets worse, and even the recovery is expected to be slow and spore will be having years of low growth. Income will drop and affordability will drop further. Plus difficulty in getting bank loans with the credit crunch. What will people with real housing needs do? Go for cheaper, smaller HDB flats! So smaller HDB flats will benefit most, that's why govt is building more of such flats. They have foresight and the data to know that people will be downgrading. As people downgrade, private property price will suffer even more..
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
About this Blog
unfounded wrote:
Even all the uncompleted units are bought under DPS, there is no effect because these speculators or buyers bought under DPS in 2005/2006 are still sitting pretty with between 50% to 250% capital appreciation . Most of these speculators are rich and dont underestimate them, they have more wealth than you think. When they go to the bank, the valuation is still much higher than the purchase price and most of them get financing easily unless they got burnt badly in the stock or currency markets. The full impact of worldwide recession do not seem to hit Singapore too badly. With bank loans, what is the problem ? It is at low interests. Do you think property prices can drop by more than 50%? Impossible in politically safe Singapore, a Global city with IRs, Sport Hubs, YOG, F1,growing foreigners and rich migrants and so much to offer to investors. The Singapore government with billions in reserves will never let this happen and they will intervene strongly to prop up the market as they are also biggest property owners. Property market in Singapore is safe and unique, even for speculators of 2005/2006.
bull wrote:
come next month budget, govt is going to approve S$5B or more for infrastructure projects, the more the better, can create jobs, drive our GDP, eventually these development will make your property appreciate their value much more.
Like Jurong lake, if govt can complete it within 5 yrs from now on, that will be nice when it completes, Punggol marina center, Buona Vista R&D hub, MRT line, expressway.....
Guest wrote:
Buyers under DPS has to pay more in total, so those with cash will not opt for this. We can conclude many of these DPS buyers are shallow-pocket flippers. What makes it worse is the unexpected credit crunch. Besides, flippers are normally people with a risky-income profile like bankers, remisers, property agents ... who make a lot of money in the 2007-boom and became too optimistic about the property market. These people will be faced with sudden loss of income and will find it very hard to get a bank loan.
bear wrote:
DPS buyers cannot just walk away from the deals and think their maximum loss is the 10-20% downpayment. Developers can resell at any lower prices and the defaulting buyers will have to pay the difference plus all legal fees. So these shallow-pocket flippers will have to sell their units at whatever prices the market will pay. I see a property price crash coming from middle 2009.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Will DPS Property Buyers default come 2009-2010? Property buyers' discussion
The following are some forumers' views on the recent news reports on defaulting DPS property buyers ( "Size of the DPS behemoth" and "D-Day for Home-Buyers") extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:unfounded wrote:
Even all the uncompleted units are bought under DPS, there is no effect because these speculators or buyers bought under DPS in 2005/2006 are still sitting pretty with between 50% to 250% capital appreciation . Most of these speculators are rich and dont underestimate them, they have more wealth than you think. When they go to the bank, the valuation is still much higher than the purchase price and most of them get financing easily unless they got burnt badly in the stock or currency markets. The full impact of worldwide recession do not seem to hit Singapore too badly. With bank loans, what is the problem ? It is at low interests. Do you think property prices can drop by more than 50%? Impossible in politically safe Singapore, a Global city with IRs, Sport Hubs, YOG, F1,growing foreigners and rich migrants and so much to offer to investors. The Singapore government with billions in reserves will never let this happen and they will intervene strongly to prop up the market as they are also biggest property owners. Property market in Singapore is safe and unique, even for speculators of 2005/2006.
bull wrote:
come next month budget, govt is going to approve S$5B or more for infrastructure projects, the more the better, can create jobs, drive our GDP, eventually these development will make your property appreciate their value much more.
Like Jurong lake, if govt can complete it within 5 yrs from now on, that will be nice when it completes, Punggol marina center, Buona Vista R&D hub, MRT line, expressway.....
Guest wrote:
Buyers under DPS has to pay more in total, so those with cash will not opt for this. We can conclude many of these DPS buyers are shallow-pocket flippers. What makes it worse is the unexpected credit crunch. Besides, flippers are normally people with a risky-income profile like bankers, remisers, property agents ... who make a lot of money in the 2007-boom and became too optimistic about the property market. These people will be faced with sudden loss of income and will find it very hard to get a bank loan.
bear wrote:
DPS buyers cannot just walk away from the deals and think their maximum loss is the 10-20% downpayment. Developers can resell at any lower prices and the defaulting buyers will have to pay the difference plus all legal fees. So these shallow-pocket flippers will have to sell their units at whatever prices the market will pay. I see a property price crash coming from middle 2009.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
Among the additional information we would have liked are:
Break down between local buyers and foreign buyers is important on the basis that the former are more likely to honor the transactions unless they really can’t afford to. Developers are understandaby reluctant to provide such information on a
project-by-project basis, eg CapitaLand’s Orchard Residences (launched in Apr ‘07), SC Global’s The Marque (Jun ‘07), City Developments’ Cliveden (Jun ‘07); and Keppel
Land’s Marina Bay Residences (Dec ‘06), which would have a higher percentage of foreign buyers.
How many of the 10,450 were the original buyers and how many from sub-sales is not known. URA noted that the number of units still under DPS may change over time as developers may not extend the scheme to sub-purchasers when the original purchasers sub-sell their units.
The percentage of buyers who have secured financing reflects the proportion of buyers who bought for owner occupation since they would likely have arranged for financing at the time of purchase, even if they have opted for DPS.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Important information on Deferred Payment Scheme not released by URA
Last week, URA released information on private housing units sold under the Deferred Payment Scheme. The more useful data, however, have been withheld as requested by developers, which in turn suggest they are not positive.Among the additional information we would have liked are:
Break down between local buyers and foreign buyers
,Break down between local buyers and foreign buyers is important on the basis that the former are more likely to honor the transactions unless they really can’t afford to. Developers are understandaby reluctant to provide such information on a
project-by-project basis, eg CapitaLand’s Orchard Residences (launched in Apr ‘07), SC Global’s The Marque (Jun ‘07), City Developments’ Cliveden (Jun ‘07); and Keppel
Land’s Marina Bay Residences (Dec ‘06), which would have a higher percentage of foreign buyers.
How many original buyers and how many from sub-sales
How many of the 10,450 were the original buyers and how many from sub-sales is not known. URA noted that the number of units still under DPS may change over time as developers may not extend the scheme to sub-purchasers when the original purchasers sub-sell their units.
Percentage of DPS buyers who have secured financing
The percentage of buyers who have secured financing reflects the proportion of buyers who bought for owner occupation since they would likely have arranged for financing at the time of purchase, even if they have opted for DPS.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Monday, December 22, 2008
About this Blog
The increasing number of en bloc sites put back on the rental market is expected to further depress already weakening rentals.
The latest of these is Lucky Tower at Grange Road which was bought by City Developments Ltd (CDL) in May 2006. A CDL spokesman said that the entire development of 91 units has been leased to a master tenant that intends to sub-let the units.
According to data complied by Savills Singapore, Lucky Tower was expected to be redeveloped into a 178-unit condominium. However, with redevelopment pushed back, these units are not expected to come on to the market anytime soon.
Another development, the 192-unit The Grangeford at Leonie Hill, acquired by OUE in 2007, has also been put back on the rental market.
OUE is controlled by the Lippo Group and Malaysian tycoon Ananda Krishnan. Lippo Realty executive director Thio Gim Hock said that approximately 70 per cent of the units have already been leased, mainly to expatriates.
On why it decided to defer redevelopment, Mr Thio said: 'The market does not look good for this year or the next.'
It is understood that asking rents for The Grangeford start at about $3,500 for 1,110 square foot two-bedroom units and about $4,500 for a 1,700 sq ft three-bedroom unit.
The Pontiac Land Group has also started to lease out Pin Tjoe Court, which it acquired in September 2006. Senior vice-president (residential leasing) William Teh said that it expects to redevelop the site next year. 'Till then, we are offering very short-term leases, and this is not representative of typical rental in the market,' he added.
Frasers Centrepoint said that Flamingo Valley, which it acquired in early 2007, has been put on the rental market with close to 60 per cent of the 185 units leased out.
Other en bloc developments back on the rental market include Furama Towers, Fairways Condominium, Sophia Court, and Lincoln Lodge.
Referring to this 'hidden leasing supply', Japanese investment house Nomura said: 'The move by developers to return en bloc units back to the leasing market to cover to a degree of the holding costs is not unanticipated.'
Regardless of 'hidden leasing supply', rentals are already expected to fall. Still, Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak believes that the 'hidden supply' of leasing units will not make much of a dent on the rental market. For starters, he notes, many of these en bloc developments have already reached a state of disrepair.
Pointing out that the 108-unit Fairways is about 10 per cent leased, he says that many of the units have been 'stripped bare'.
He also noted that these units have short leases and tenants may be given only one-month's notice to vacate
In the case of Grangeford, assuming a gross rent of $3.40 psf for the 396,483 sq ft apartment block, Nomura estimates that it could secure net income of $14.6 million, equating to a 2.3 per cent yield over its $625 million acquisition price, 'providing some relief to covering the site's holding costs'.
Continue with Deferred Enbloc Redevelopment cuts supply of 1000 new units
Extract:BT 22 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Enbloc Properties put back on rental market: Expected to further depress rental market
At least 1,000 projected new apartment units can be expected to be withdrawn from immediate supply in Singapore's property market, as properties that were sold en bloc in recent years are put back on the market for rental.Enbloc sites rental units expected to further depress rental market
The increasing number of en bloc sites put back on the rental market is expected to further depress already weakening rentals.
CDL: Lucky Tower @ Grange Road leased to master tenant
The latest of these is Lucky Tower at Grange Road which was bought by City Developments Ltd (CDL) in May 2006. A CDL spokesman said that the entire development of 91 units has been leased to a master tenant that intends to sub-let the units.
According to data complied by Savills Singapore, Lucky Tower was expected to be redeveloped into a 178-unit condominium. However, with redevelopment pushed back, these units are not expected to come on to the market anytime soon.
192-unit The Grangeford at Leonie Hill on the rental market
Another development, the 192-unit The Grangeford at Leonie Hill, acquired by OUE in 2007, has also been put back on the rental market.
OUE is controlled by the Lippo Group and Malaysian tycoon Ananda Krishnan. Lippo Realty executive director Thio Gim Hock said that approximately 70 per cent of the units have already been leased, mainly to expatriates.
On why it decided to defer redevelopment, Mr Thio said: 'The market does not look good for this year or the next.'
It is understood that asking rents for The Grangeford start at about $3,500 for 1,110 square foot two-bedroom units and about $4,500 for a 1,700 sq ft three-bedroom unit.
Pontiac Land Group started to lease out Pin Tjoe Court
The Pontiac Land Group has also started to lease out Pin Tjoe Court, which it acquired in September 2006. Senior vice-president (residential leasing) William Teh said that it expects to redevelop the site next year. 'Till then, we are offering very short-term leases, and this is not representative of typical rental in the market,' he added.
Frasers Centrepoint: Flamingo Valley 60% leased out
Frasers Centrepoint said that Flamingo Valley, which it acquired in early 2007, has been put on the rental market with close to 60 per cent of the 185 units leased out.
Other en bloc developments back on the rental market include Furama Towers, Fairways Condominium, Sophia Court, and Lincoln Lodge.
Rental yield helps cover developers' holding costs
Referring to this 'hidden leasing supply', Japanese investment house Nomura said: 'The move by developers to return en bloc units back to the leasing market to cover to a degree of the holding costs is not unanticipated.'
Regardless of 'hidden leasing supply', rentals are already expected to fall. Still, Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak believes that the 'hidden supply' of leasing units will not make much of a dent on the rental market. For starters, he notes, many of these en bloc developments have already reached a state of disrepair.
Pointing out that the 108-unit Fairways is about 10 per cent leased, he says that many of the units have been 'stripped bare'.
He also noted that these units have short leases and tenants may be given only one-month's notice to vacate
Rental Yield of 2.3%
In the case of Grangeford, assuming a gross rent of $3.40 psf for the 396,483 sq ft apartment block, Nomura estimates that it could secure net income of $14.6 million, equating to a 2.3 per cent yield over its $625 million acquisition price, 'providing some relief to covering the site's holding costs'.
Continue with Deferred Enbloc Redevelopment cuts supply of 1000 new units
Extract:BT 22 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
Another consequence of deferred en bloc redevelopment is the impact this has on future supply.
Savills Singapore estimates that based on the en bloc deals between 2005 and 2007, over 23,000 new units could be added to the market.
But, as Nomura notes, supply has been increasingly pushed to 2012. As at the third quarter of this year, it found that some 16,762 units are scheduled for completion in 2012, versus the previous quarter's estimate of 14,179 units.
Based on an analysis of official data since Q499, it also found that actual completions lagged behind forecast completions.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has also clarified that while developments are deemed 'under construction' in its database, this does not necessarily mean construction has begun.
A spokesman for URA said that it considers a project to be 'under construction' once the Building and Construction Authority records indicate that a project has been issued a permit to commence structural works.
As at Q308, there are 10,007 units under construction. URA said: 'As developers do not have to inform the government of actual ground-breaking after obtaining the permit to commence structural works, URA does not have information on the number of units, expected to be completed in 2009, which have actually broken ground.'
However, it added that it understands that actual construction for a project typically begins within 1-3 months after the developer obtains the permit to commence structural works for the project.
The number of developments that could be deferred will remain unknown. CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake pointed out: 'Even if the property has been demolished, a meaningful number of projects will be delayed as construction costs are expected to fall over the next 18 months.'
Extract:BT 22 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Deferred Enbloc redevelopment cuts supply of 1,000 new apartments
Continue from Enbloc Properties put back on Rental Market: Expected to further depress rental marketAnother consequence of deferred en bloc redevelopment is the impact this has on future supply.
Savills Singapore estimates that based on the en bloc deals between 2005 and 2007, over 23,000 new units could be added to the market.
But, as Nomura notes, supply has been increasingly pushed to 2012. As at the third quarter of this year, it found that some 16,762 units are scheduled for completion in 2012, versus the previous quarter's estimate of 14,179 units.
Based on an analysis of official data since Q499, it also found that actual completions lagged behind forecast completions.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has also clarified that while developments are deemed 'under construction' in its database, this does not necessarily mean construction has begun.
A spokesman for URA said that it considers a project to be 'under construction' once the Building and Construction Authority records indicate that a project has been issued a permit to commence structural works.
As at Q308, there are 10,007 units under construction. URA said: 'As developers do not have to inform the government of actual ground-breaking after obtaining the permit to commence structural works, URA does not have information on the number of units, expected to be completed in 2009, which have actually broken ground.'
However, it added that it understands that actual construction for a project typically begins within 1-3 months after the developer obtains the permit to commence structural works for the project.
The number of developments that could be deferred will remain unknown. CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake pointed out: 'Even if the property has been demolished, a meaningful number of projects will be delayed as construction costs are expected to fall over the next 18 months.'
Extract:BT 22 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Saturday, December 20, 2008
About this Blog
SOME 10,450 sold and uncompleted private homes are now under the deferred payment scheme (DPS), according to official data released yesterday.
Of the amount, close to half - 4,560 units - will be completed in 2009, while another 2,540 homes will be completed in 2010, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said. Under the DPS, which was introduced by the government in October 1997 and withdrawn in October 2007, the bulk of the purchase price of a property is due only after a project obtains its temporary occupation permit (TOP).
The data was welcomed by both analysts and the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas). Over the past several months, many market watchers and analysts have been estimating how big an impact the DPS will have on developers' cashflow and earnings if buyers default on their homes as TOP approaches.
'I think it provides a clearer picture as to the extent of the problem,' said Citigroup's head of Singapore equity research, Chua Hak Bin. 'And it is good that the government acted to stop the system when it did. If not, things would have got a lot worse.'
Said Redas: 'URA data, together with data compiled by Redas, helps to allay concerns that speculators may repudiate their DPS purchases at below-market prices as the completion date nears.' In its statement, Redas highlighted 10 projects - including City Developments' The Sail and Keppel Land's Park Infinia - where the DPS was offered but full payment was still made to the developers once TOP was obtained.
For now, the real area of concern is thought to be the 2,540 units under the DPS that will obtain TOP in 2010.
Redas also said that while units may be affected by market sentiments, sales contracts cannot be repudiated easily.
URA's data proves that the DPS scheme was 'very popular', Citigroup's Dr Chua said. To arrive at its numbers, URA did a survey among property developers of uncompleted DPS-approved projects. In total, developers of 605 projects, comprising 72,384 units, were granted approval to offer the DPS. Of this amount, there were 18,208 sold but uncompleted units as at end-November this year. And of this figure, 10,450 (57 per cent) were still under the DPS.
The fact that the bulk of DPS units will be completed in 2009 is cause for some concern, analysts said. '2009 is going to be a tough year for the economy, and there are 4,650 units under the DPS that will be completed,' said Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.
But assuming a three-year construction period, a large proportion of the units that will obtain TOP in 2009 were probably launched and sold in 2006 and early 2007, at prices that are relatively lower than today's level or the expected level in 2009. So even if the property market continues to weaken in 2009, the owners of these 4,560 units could still lease out the homes or sell them, analysts said. However, if developers had offered the DPS to many sub-purchasers when the original purchasers sub-sell the units, then defaults could be expected.
But for now, the real area of concern is thought to be the 2,540 units under the DPS that will obtain TOP in 2010. Of this number, 1,270 of the units are located in the core central region (CCR), which includes Sentosa and Marina Bay.
'Generally, I'm more concerned over the units which will receive TOP in 2010-2011, which could have been purchased in 2007 at the peak of the property market,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee.
And while developers have the legal right to pursue buyers who walk away from their deals, it could be harder to do this when it comes to foreigners, said Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng.
Normally, about 75-90 per cent of uncompleted private residential units will be bought by Singaporeans, said DMG's Mr Lee. But in 2007, the proportion fell to 63-68 per cent, with the remaining purchases made by PRs, foreigners and companies. 'We see this segment as the most likely to return their units,' he said. His back-of-the-envelope figure puts the amount expected to be returned as possibly somewhere between 20-30 per cent.
URA said that it provided the data to enable the public to make a better assessment of the private housing market. 'This information was provided by developers in confidence and with the understanding that data for individual projects would not be released to the public. Hence URA is only releasing aggregated data and not data for individual projects,' the government agency said.
'Conducting a survey of developers of all uncompleted DPS-approved projects requires a lot of time and resources from the developers as well as the government. Given that the number of uncompleted units sold under DPS is likely to decline as projects are completed over time, we will monitor the situation and consider whether there is a need to conduct further surveys in future,' URA said in response to a query from BT.
BT 20 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Size of the DPS behemoth
10,450 sold & uncompleted private homes under the DPS now; analysts worried about those getting TOP in 2010-11SOME 10,450 sold and uncompleted private homes are now under the deferred payment scheme (DPS), according to official data released yesterday.
Of the amount, close to half - 4,560 units - will be completed in 2009, while another 2,540 homes will be completed in 2010, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said. Under the DPS, which was introduced by the government in October 1997 and withdrawn in October 2007, the bulk of the purchase price of a property is due only after a project obtains its temporary occupation permit (TOP).
The data was welcomed by both analysts and the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas). Over the past several months, many market watchers and analysts have been estimating how big an impact the DPS will have on developers' cashflow and earnings if buyers default on their homes as TOP approaches.
'I think it provides a clearer picture as to the extent of the problem,' said Citigroup's head of Singapore equity research, Chua Hak Bin. 'And it is good that the government acted to stop the system when it did. If not, things would have got a lot worse.'
Said Redas: 'URA data, together with data compiled by Redas, helps to allay concerns that speculators may repudiate their DPS purchases at below-market prices as the completion date nears.' In its statement, Redas highlighted 10 projects - including City Developments' The Sail and Keppel Land's Park Infinia - where the DPS was offered but full payment was still made to the developers once TOP was obtained.
For now, the real area of concern is thought to be the 2,540 units under the DPS that will obtain TOP in 2010.
Redas also said that while units may be affected by market sentiments, sales contracts cannot be repudiated easily.
URA's data proves that the DPS scheme was 'very popular', Citigroup's Dr Chua said. To arrive at its numbers, URA did a survey among property developers of uncompleted DPS-approved projects. In total, developers of 605 projects, comprising 72,384 units, were granted approval to offer the DPS. Of this amount, there were 18,208 sold but uncompleted units as at end-November this year. And of this figure, 10,450 (57 per cent) were still under the DPS.
The fact that the bulk of DPS units will be completed in 2009 is cause for some concern, analysts said. '2009 is going to be a tough year for the economy, and there are 4,650 units under the DPS that will be completed,' said Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.
But assuming a three-year construction period, a large proportion of the units that will obtain TOP in 2009 were probably launched and sold in 2006 and early 2007, at prices that are relatively lower than today's level or the expected level in 2009. So even if the property market continues to weaken in 2009, the owners of these 4,560 units could still lease out the homes or sell them, analysts said. However, if developers had offered the DPS to many sub-purchasers when the original purchasers sub-sell the units, then defaults could be expected.
But for now, the real area of concern is thought to be the 2,540 units under the DPS that will obtain TOP in 2010. Of this number, 1,270 of the units are located in the core central region (CCR), which includes Sentosa and Marina Bay.
'Generally, I'm more concerned over the units which will receive TOP in 2010-2011, which could have been purchased in 2007 at the peak of the property market,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee.
And while developers have the legal right to pursue buyers who walk away from their deals, it could be harder to do this when it comes to foreigners, said Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng.
Normally, about 75-90 per cent of uncompleted private residential units will be bought by Singaporeans, said DMG's Mr Lee. But in 2007, the proportion fell to 63-68 per cent, with the remaining purchases made by PRs, foreigners and companies. 'We see this segment as the most likely to return their units,' he said. His back-of-the-envelope figure puts the amount expected to be returned as possibly somewhere between 20-30 per cent.
URA said that it provided the data to enable the public to make a better assessment of the private housing market. 'This information was provided by developers in confidence and with the understanding that data for individual projects would not be released to the public. Hence URA is only releasing aggregated data and not data for individual projects,' the government agency said.
'Conducting a survey of developers of all uncompleted DPS-approved projects requires a lot of time and resources from the developers as well as the government. Given that the number of uncompleted units sold under DPS is likely to decline as projects are completed over time, we will monitor the situation and consider whether there is a need to conduct further surveys in future,' URA said in response to a query from BT.
BT 20 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
JUST how vulnerable is Singapore’s :souring economy to a wave of defaults from private home buyers who had made use of the popular Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS)?
.
:It’s a question that continues to split analysts, even as the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA): on Friday released, for the first time, data on private homes sold under the DPS, a decade-old plan scrapped in October last year.
.
To “provide transparency”, the agency revealed that 10,450 uncompleted private homes had been sold under the scheme as at end-November.
.
As the DPS tends to be used by speculators, the data breakdown reflects the potential number of homes that could be returned to developers, should buyers fail to secure financing by the time a project is completed and receives the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
.
For many, D-day approaches: Most of the units — 4,560 — will be ready next year, followed by another 2,540 units in 2010.
.
With these two years likely to be weighed down by a global economic slump, buyers with shallow pockets will have difficulty coughing up the bulk of the price tag by the TOP date, especially as banks have become tight-fisted. If the purchase falls through, units will return to the market, possibly depressing prices.
.
To Chesteron Suntec International research director Colin Tan, the statistics paint a grim picture.
.
“If we assume all the people buying under DPS meant to flip, the 4,560 units represent one year of supply for a bad year. It’s bad,” Mr Tan told Today.
.
Only 4,000 to 5,000 new private homes are expected to be sold this year, he said, way below last year’s 14,800.
.
Under the DPS, the downpayment is :only 10 to 20 per cent of the unit’s price and the customer makes no other payments during the construction period — typically two to three years — until completion. The arrangement appeals to speculators who, during boom time, made just a small payment upfront and managed to “flip” the unit for a quick buck before the TOP date.
.
:Some feel the DPS may create a local version of a sub-prime meltdown. Will the market soon be flooded with desperados cancelling purchases or defaulting? Developers are putting up a brave front.
.
:“We note that DPS cases will peak in 2009. These units would have been purchased in 2005/6 before property prices peaked in late 2007. As the purchase prices of these units are likely to be below current market price, we are confident that such property purchasers will want to proceed with completion of ====:their sale, upon their unit’s grant of the TOP,” the Real Estate Developers’ :Association of Singapore (Redas) said in a statement.
.
:Redas also stressed that buyers have no right to cancel sale-and-purchase agreements; only the developer does. So if the buyer fails to adhere to the contract, the developer could not only keep the downpayment but also demand claims and resell the property.
.
:Redas did not say if their members were witnessing an increase in customers asking to repudiate contracts.
.
:According to Knight Frank director of consultancy and research Nicholas Mak, people who bought units outside the Core Central Region – plum areas including Orchard and Sentosa – are “less at risk of default because a relatively higher proportion of these homes were bought for owners’ occupation”.
.
:Two-thirds of the unfinished homes bought on DPS are outside the Core Central Region.
.
:In the first place, said Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong, DPS customers do include genuine home buyers, not just speculators.
.
:Mr Mak said even if the property market weakened further next year, homebuyers collecting their keys “could either lease out the homes at relatively good returns or sell the homes at their breakeven level or with a profit”.
.
:As for those taking delivery in 2010, they are unlikely to be pressured to sell at distress prices as “we expect the property market to stabilise in 2010 and may show some signs of recovery”:.
CNA 20 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
D-Day for homebuyers
7,100 units ready in next two years, buyers may face difficulties: AnalystsJUST how vulnerable is Singapore’s :souring economy to a wave of defaults from private home buyers who had made use of the popular Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS)?
.
:It’s a question that continues to split analysts, even as the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA): on Friday released, for the first time, data on private homes sold under the DPS, a decade-old plan scrapped in October last year.
.
To “provide transparency”, the agency revealed that 10,450 uncompleted private homes had been sold under the scheme as at end-November.
.
As the DPS tends to be used by speculators, the data breakdown reflects the potential number of homes that could be returned to developers, should buyers fail to secure financing by the time a project is completed and receives the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
.
For many, D-day approaches: Most of the units — 4,560 — will be ready next year, followed by another 2,540 units in 2010.
.
With these two years likely to be weighed down by a global economic slump, buyers with shallow pockets will have difficulty coughing up the bulk of the price tag by the TOP date, especially as banks have become tight-fisted. If the purchase falls through, units will return to the market, possibly depressing prices.
.
To Chesteron Suntec International research director Colin Tan, the statistics paint a grim picture.
.
“If we assume all the people buying under DPS meant to flip, the 4,560 units represent one year of supply for a bad year. It’s bad,” Mr Tan told Today.
.
Only 4,000 to 5,000 new private homes are expected to be sold this year, he said, way below last year’s 14,800.
.
Under the DPS, the downpayment is :only 10 to 20 per cent of the unit’s price and the customer makes no other payments during the construction period — typically two to three years — until completion. The arrangement appeals to speculators who, during boom time, made just a small payment upfront and managed to “flip” the unit for a quick buck before the TOP date.
.
:Some feel the DPS may create a local version of a sub-prime meltdown. Will the market soon be flooded with desperados cancelling purchases or defaulting? Developers are putting up a brave front.
.
:“We note that DPS cases will peak in 2009. These units would have been purchased in 2005/6 before property prices peaked in late 2007. As the purchase prices of these units are likely to be below current market price, we are confident that such property purchasers will want to proceed with completion of ====:their sale, upon their unit’s grant of the TOP,” the Real Estate Developers’ :Association of Singapore (Redas) said in a statement.
.
:Redas also stressed that buyers have no right to cancel sale-and-purchase agreements; only the developer does. So if the buyer fails to adhere to the contract, the developer could not only keep the downpayment but also demand claims and resell the property.
.
:Redas did not say if their members were witnessing an increase in customers asking to repudiate contracts.
.
:According to Knight Frank director of consultancy and research Nicholas Mak, people who bought units outside the Core Central Region – plum areas including Orchard and Sentosa – are “less at risk of default because a relatively higher proportion of these homes were bought for owners’ occupation”.
.
:Two-thirds of the unfinished homes bought on DPS are outside the Core Central Region.
.
:In the first place, said Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong, DPS customers do include genuine home buyers, not just speculators.
.
:Mr Mak said even if the property market weakened further next year, homebuyers collecting their keys “could either lease out the homes at relatively good returns or sell the homes at their breakeven level or with a profit”.
.
:As for those taking delivery in 2010, they are unlikely to be pressured to sell at distress prices as “we expect the property market to stabilise in 2010 and may show some signs of recovery”:.
CNA 20 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Friday, December 19, 2008
About this Blog
Citizen wrote:
if US$crash and very likely it will, interest rates will skyrocket and a panic ensue, creating a BIG rush out of US$ assets in billions and even trillions. The market will be in another turmoil Assets and economies invested heavily in US$ can be destroyed and the consequences are disastrous. Dont dream that Singapore overpriced property is a hedge and all these major economies and investors cannot find a safe heaven and divert to Singapore. when investors are so badly hit, there is a spiral effect and it will create even more fear. Affected economies will look after their domestic problems and investment before looking outside. Look around and do some serious research in other countries, there are far more safer, cheaper and attractive options than investing in Singapore overpriced properties. Even our Temasek and GIC if you see are investing overseas and they haven proven correctly that their return is still better so far. Think about it carefully what so attractive and competitive of overpriced properties in Singapore. It has not even fallen to meaningful level and probably not because the budget next month should again likely to aim at propping up properties prices and improve sentiment and some unwary speculators and investors can be trapped or does it really matter. Better to stay away from such BIG financial commitment. No big deal to miss the boat except for the wealthy and rich speculators who always want more. Ordinary citizens and small invesors :Be safe than sorry, no need so much or show off or envious about. Humble opinion.
Anonymous wrote:
US$ crash is for sure, funds of US$Trillin will flow to Asia for sure, this is the reverse of 1997 Asia financial crisis. China will push demand till 2-4x of current US demand, want to do biz, want infrastructure projects....80% is in Asia. RMB$4Trillion development is just the beginning, another 5 round of bigger size stimulus packegae is on the way in coming months to years.
Why US property drive to big bubble in 2007? The bubble started to build up in 1998, influx of Millions of Asian flew to US afetr Asia crisis, that is the beginnig of Silicon Valley...wall st.....every corner of US, you will immigrants & foreign talents. US property up all the way from 1998 to 2007. When Asia crisis started for 1 yr, US property escalate. So later next year, we will start to see influx of ang mo.
Quesstion now is US drop in demand can be pick up by Asia? US drop in dmand is the most 1-2%, is not drop by 10-20%, with China + India= 10x US population, can't the govt stimulate the economy to achieve a small drop in US demand?
Cheap US$ with 0% rate is everywhere in the world next year, they are printing it unlimitedly, Obama will have to print more, when the effect of these money surface, tyhe begin of another big bubble, especially in Asia which have US$Trillion of reserved & is going to cash out when times come, plus all the rush of coneversion of US$ to asian currency to flock here.....worse than tsunami when it triggers....
Guest wrote;
Money needs to be constantly circulated as efficiently as possible to maintain economic productivity. Right now, too much money is idle in banks and reserves, and not being put to productive use.
As Americans spend less, China knows already that it needs to start spending more to hasten economic recovery, else if this trend continues, it will lead to ever slowing growth and eventually social instability as more people go out of work and can't afford basic necessities.
The US can only do so much as reduce their interest rates to near-zero so it needs China to do it's part as well as all the economies are interconnected. I expect in the next one year we will start seeing increased spending from the Asian powers, better flow of liquidity and recovery in the health of the global economy.
So what does this mean for Singapore property 2009? Prices will probably remain above 2006 levels, but not as exuberant as 2007. A good time to upgrade or purchase for own-stay, especially if there are urgent sales from owners of multiple properties (and there are plenty of such these days). I see a great future for Singapore as a global city for the wealthy, but private property is still too expensive an investment option for most people, and unlikely to be able to "flip" for quick profits.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Impact of US Dollar Crash on Property Price
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum :Citizen wrote:
if US$crash and very likely it will, interest rates will skyrocket and a panic ensue, creating a BIG rush out of US$ assets in billions and even trillions. The market will be in another turmoil Assets and economies invested heavily in US$ can be destroyed and the consequences are disastrous. Dont dream that Singapore overpriced property is a hedge and all these major economies and investors cannot find a safe heaven and divert to Singapore. when investors are so badly hit, there is a spiral effect and it will create even more fear. Affected economies will look after their domestic problems and investment before looking outside. Look around and do some serious research in other countries, there are far more safer, cheaper and attractive options than investing in Singapore overpriced properties. Even our Temasek and GIC if you see are investing overseas and they haven proven correctly that their return is still better so far. Think about it carefully what so attractive and competitive of overpriced properties in Singapore. It has not even fallen to meaningful level and probably not because the budget next month should again likely to aim at propping up properties prices and improve sentiment and some unwary speculators and investors can be trapped or does it really matter. Better to stay away from such BIG financial commitment. No big deal to miss the boat except for the wealthy and rich speculators who always want more. Ordinary citizens and small invesors :Be safe than sorry, no need so much or show off or envious about. Humble opinion.
Anonymous wrote:
US$ crash is for sure, funds of US$Trillin will flow to Asia for sure, this is the reverse of 1997 Asia financial crisis. China will push demand till 2-4x of current US demand, want to do biz, want infrastructure projects....80% is in Asia. RMB$4Trillion development is just the beginning, another 5 round of bigger size stimulus packegae is on the way in coming months to years.
Why US property drive to big bubble in 2007? The bubble started to build up in 1998, influx of Millions of Asian flew to US afetr Asia crisis, that is the beginnig of Silicon Valley...wall st.....every corner of US, you will immigrants & foreign talents. US property up all the way from 1998 to 2007. When Asia crisis started for 1 yr, US property escalate. So later next year, we will start to see influx of ang mo.
Quesstion now is US drop in demand can be pick up by Asia? US drop in dmand is the most 1-2%, is not drop by 10-20%, with China + India= 10x US population, can't the govt stimulate the economy to achieve a small drop in US demand?
Cheap US$ with 0% rate is everywhere in the world next year, they are printing it unlimitedly, Obama will have to print more, when the effect of these money surface, tyhe begin of another big bubble, especially in Asia which have US$Trillion of reserved & is going to cash out when times come, plus all the rush of coneversion of US$ to asian currency to flock here.....worse than tsunami when it triggers....
Guest wrote;
Money needs to be constantly circulated as efficiently as possible to maintain economic productivity. Right now, too much money is idle in banks and reserves, and not being put to productive use.
As Americans spend less, China knows already that it needs to start spending more to hasten economic recovery, else if this trend continues, it will lead to ever slowing growth and eventually social instability as more people go out of work and can't afford basic necessities.
The US can only do so much as reduce their interest rates to near-zero so it needs China to do it's part as well as all the economies are interconnected. I expect in the next one year we will start seeing increased spending from the Asian powers, better flow of liquidity and recovery in the health of the global economy.
So what does this mean for Singapore property 2009? Prices will probably remain above 2006 levels, but not as exuberant as 2007. A good time to upgrade or purchase for own-stay, especially if there are urgent sales from owners of multiple properties (and there are plenty of such these days). I see a great future for Singapore as a global city for the wealthy, but private property is still too expensive an investment option for most people, and unlikely to be able to "flip" for quick profits.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
There are 144 two-room flats priced between $76,000-$90,000; and 216 three-room flats priced between $120,000 to $146,000.
The board said that in pricing new flats, it considers several factors such as location, individual attributes of the flats, design of the project and the prevailing market conditions.
'To ensure public housing is affordable for first- time home buyers, new HDB flats are priced below their equivalent market prices,' it added.
HDB says that prices of nearby resale flats (which are about 20 years old) are about $175,000 to $180,000 (on a pro-rated basis with units of the same 65 square metre size). As such, HDB has priced the three-room flats at about 20%-30% less than comparable resale prices.
There are 504 four- room flats and these have been priced between $197,000 and $238,000. HDB says that resale prices are between $225,000 and $257,000 (on a pro-rated basis with units of the same 90 sq m size) for the four-room flats nearby. As such, Dew Spring four-room flats are about 7%-12% cheaper.
HDB did not have comparable resale prices for two-room flats.
Including Dew Spring, HDB has launched a total of 883 units of two-room and three-room flats this year and plans to launch another 100 smaller flats soon. It also plans to offer about 4,000 smaller units over the next two years. The launch of Dew Spring follows National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan's announcement in Parliament on Nov 18 that lower-income families and those who need to downgrade to smaller flats can look forward to a steady supply of smaller flats.
Extract: BT, 19 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB's Dew Spring @ Yishun: Supply of more smaller flats at affordable prices
THE Housing and Development Board (HDB) has launched Dew Spring @ Yishun where a good number of units are smaller two and three-room flats.2-room at $76,000-$90,000 and 3-room at $120,000 to $146,000
There are 144 two-room flats priced between $76,000-$90,000; and 216 three-room flats priced between $120,000 to $146,000.
The board said that in pricing new flats, it considers several factors such as location, individual attributes of the flats, design of the project and the prevailing market conditions.
'To ensure public housing is affordable for first- time home buyers, new HDB flats are priced below their equivalent market prices,' it added.
HDB priced 3-room flats 20%-30% less than resale flat prices
HDB says that prices of nearby resale flats (which are about 20 years old) are about $175,000 to $180,000 (on a pro-rated basis with units of the same 65 square metre size). As such, HDB has priced the three-room flats at about 20%-30% less than comparable resale prices.
HDB priced 4-room flats 7%-12% less than resale flat prices
There are 504 four- room flats and these have been priced between $197,000 and $238,000. HDB says that resale prices are between $225,000 and $257,000 (on a pro-rated basis with units of the same 90 sq m size) for the four-room flats nearby. As such, Dew Spring four-room flats are about 7%-12% cheaper.
HDB did not have comparable resale prices for two-room flats.
HDB's supply of smaller flats for Lower Income families & Downgraders
Including Dew Spring, HDB has launched a total of 883 units of two-room and three-room flats this year and plans to launch another 100 smaller flats soon. It also plans to offer about 4,000 smaller units over the next two years. The launch of Dew Spring follows National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan's announcement in Parliament on Nov 18 that lower-income families and those who need to downgrade to smaller flats can look forward to a steady supply of smaller flats.
Extract: BT, 19 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
About this Blog
Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) monthly real estate data also revealed that the number of launch-ready units hit 6,512 units in November, a marginal rise over October but an increase of 3,840 units from a year ago.
Rosewood Suites in Woodlands by EL Development (ELD) sold 42 units in November, the most units sold, followed by Newton Edge (34 units) and RV Suites (19 units).
ELD is a unit of local builder Evan Lim & Co. Managing director Lim Yew Soon said that the pricing - at an average of $580 psf - 'may be on the low side' but added, 'We expect construction costs to come down next year so we took a bit of a risk with a lower margin'.
Still, Mr Lim conceded that, 'the price may not be sustainable in the long run', and ELD could begin to raise prices.
He also believes that a price war among developers is not likely because most developers bought sites at about the same price. 'And unless a developer goes bust, there is no reason for them to sell at a loss,' he added.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail said that prices for existing developments in the same area such as Casablanca are going for between $500-$550 psf. He said that Rosewood Suites is 'extremely attractive in today's market' especially considering that new public housing flats are about $300 psf with Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flats at about $450 psf.
PropNex was the marketing agent for Rosewood Suites and Mr Ismail added that most of the buyers were HDB upgraders.
Already, Knight Frank notes that the lowest priced non-landed unit sold in November was in Rosewood Suites at $512 psf while the highest priced non-landed unit is Orchard Scotts, which sold for $2,006 psf (The highest-priced unit sold in Orchard Scotts was $2,407 psf).
Both Newton Edge and RV Suites are in the core central region (CCR) and Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying noted that more than half the 382 units launched were in the CCR.
She added: 'Developers have been stepping up launches of prime properties since August 2008, in a reversal of the first half's trend where developers tended to hold back launches of prime properties. This could be an indication of weakening holding power amongst smallish and mid-tier developers with prime development sites.'
Ms Tay believes developers are likely to continue with the current launch momentum and could launch some 450-500 new units in December 2008, bringing the total launch volume for 2008 to some 6,500 units, less than half of last year's launch volume of more than 14,000 units.
Ms Tay expects developers' sale volume to hover between 150-200 units. This would bring sales volume for the year to less than 4,500 units, or less than a third of last year's volume of more than 14,000 units.
Other developments that registered better sales in November were Evania at Upper Paya Lebar Road and a landed housing project at Andrews Terrace.
CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said: 'Price remains a critical factor to move sales, as seen by the good response to these projects.' He also said that prices for units in Evania have apparently been reduced from above $800 psf when it was first launched in March to $610 psf-$650 psf.
'Buyers will remain very cautious even if some re-pricing sets in,' he added. 'Since the economic drag is expected to persist into 2009, developers may be increasingly open to considering creative marketing tactics and soft discounts to attract buyers,' Nicholas Mak added.
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak expects home-buying sentiments and launch activity to remain subdued until after the Chinese New Year in January.
DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah also reckons the market is seeking 'clarity' on the economy and could wait for the January Budget measures before moving.
Extract:BT,16 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
Newton Edge: Buyers' Review
Launch of Rosewood Suite at $580 psf
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Private Property Sales increases in November: Rosewood Suites and Newton Edge sold most
The launch of new developments helped pull up developer sales to 192 units in November, up from just 112 units in October. The number of units launched by developers increased from 159 units in October to 382 units in November.Launch-ready units hit 6,512 units in November
Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) monthly real estate data also revealed that the number of launch-ready units hit 6,512 units in November, a marginal rise over October but an increase of 3,840 units from a year ago.
Rosewood Suites and Newton Edge sold most
Rosewood Suites in Woodlands by EL Development (ELD) sold 42 units in November, the most units sold, followed by Newton Edge (34 units) and RV Suites (19 units).
ELD is a unit of local builder Evan Lim & Co. Managing director Lim Yew Soon said that the pricing - at an average of $580 psf - 'may be on the low side' but added, 'We expect construction costs to come down next year so we took a bit of a risk with a lower margin'.
Developer says may raise price and price war not likely
Still, Mr Lim conceded that, 'the price may not be sustainable in the long run', and ELD could begin to raise prices.
He also believes that a price war among developers is not likely because most developers bought sites at about the same price. 'And unless a developer goes bust, there is no reason for them to sell at a loss,' he added.
Rosewood Suites' Prices extremely attractive: Property Agents
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail said that prices for existing developments in the same area such as Casablanca are going for between $500-$550 psf. He said that Rosewood Suites is 'extremely attractive in today's market' especially considering that new public housing flats are about $300 psf with Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flats at about $450 psf.
PropNex was the marketing agent for Rosewood Suites and Mr Ismail added that most of the buyers were HDB upgraders.
Already, Knight Frank notes that the lowest priced non-landed unit sold in November was in Rosewood Suites at $512 psf while the highest priced non-landed unit is Orchard Scotts, which sold for $2,006 psf (The highest-priced unit sold in Orchard Scotts was $2,407 psf).
Rosewood Suites and Newton Edge both in Central Core Region
Both Newton Edge and RV Suites are in the core central region (CCR) and Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying noted that more than half the 382 units launched were in the CCR.
Launch of Prime Properties may indicate small developers' weak holding power
She added: 'Developers have been stepping up launches of prime properties since August 2008, in a reversal of the first half's trend where developers tended to hold back launches of prime properties. This could be an indication of weakening holding power amongst smallish and mid-tier developers with prime development sites.'
Launch momemtum expected to continue
Ms Tay believes developers are likely to continue with the current launch momentum and could launch some 450-500 new units in December 2008, bringing the total launch volume for 2008 to some 6,500 units, less than half of last year's launch volume of more than 14,000 units.
Ms Tay expects developers' sale volume to hover between 150-200 units. This would bring sales volume for the year to less than 4,500 units, or less than a third of last year's volume of more than 14,000 units.
Other developments that registered better sales in November were Evania at Upper Paya Lebar Road and a landed housing project at Andrews Terrace.
Price remains a critical factor to move sales
CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said: 'Price remains a critical factor to move sales, as seen by the good response to these projects.' He also said that prices for units in Evania have apparently been reduced from above $800 psf when it was first launched in March to $610 psf-$650 psf.
'Buyers will remain very cautious even if some re-pricing sets in,' he added. 'Since the economic drag is expected to persist into 2009, developers may be increasingly open to considering creative marketing tactics and soft discounts to attract buyers,' Nicholas Mak added.
Home-buying sentiments to remain subdued to Jan after Chinese New Year
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak expects home-buying sentiments and launch activity to remain subdued until after the Chinese New Year in January.
DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah also reckons the market is seeking 'clarity' on the economy and could wait for the January Budget measures before moving.
Extract:BT,16 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
Newton Edge: Buyers' Review
Launch of Rosewood Suite at $580 psf
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Thursday, December 18, 2008
About this Blog
ann wrote:
Certainly, indiscriminate printing of US$ will lead to devaluation of the US$. Thus far, Asians have picked up the slack, but recent comments from China and Singapore seem to indicate Asia's patience is wearing thin....
PM Lee:
www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_307925.html
imbalances which had built up over the past five to seven years between the United States, which has run up huge budget deficits, and Asia, with burgeoning surpluses.
'We can't go back to where we were before, which is, Asians lend money to Americans... Americans borrow money to spend,' said Mr Lee. 'So how do we get savings and consumption back in balance?'
With the American consumer cutting back, someone else - whether the Chinese or the Indians - has to pick up the slack. The whole world would need to adjust to the new situation forced upon it by the crisis, he said.
The China Daily
www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_315471.html
BEIJING - CHINA warned on Wednesday it would not keep lending money to the US economy indefinitely, even as new data showed it had consolidated its position as the top buyer of American government bonds.
'China's increased purchase of US Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the US can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis,' the China Daily said in an editorial.
The warning from the state-run newspaper, an English-language daily that mainly addresses a foreign audience, came after the US Treasury Department reported a steep increase in Chinese holding of US Treasury bonds.
The China Daily said that, given the global economic crisis, the consequences would be serious if China and other nations stopped channelling money into the US economy.
'Interest rates in the US would rise to undermine that government's efforts to bailout distressed financial institutions and companies,' it said.
Anonymous wrote:
Much as China, and perhaps, Singapore, are getting impatient and possibly, fed-up with being at the mercy's of the US economy, their economies are so entrenched that to stop lending to US is easier say than done. The middle class populations in India and China are still too small to pick up the slack. The way I see it, it'll take another decade at least to balance the savings and consumptions imbalances in the current global economy.
Guest wrote:
Money needs to be constantly circulated as efficiently as possible to maintain economic productivity. Right now, too much money is idle in banks and reserves, and not being put to productive use.
As Americans spend less, China knows already that it needs to start spending more to hasten economic recovery, else if this trend continues, it will lead to ever slowing growth and eventually social instability as more people go out of work and can't afford basic necessities.
The US can only do so much as reduce their interest rates to near-zero so it needs China to do it's part as well as all the economies are interconnected. I expect in the next one year we will start seeing increased spending from the Asian powers, better flow of liquidity and recovery in the health of the global economy.
So what does this mean for Singapore property 2009? Prices will probably remain above 2006 levels, but not as exuberant as 2007. A good time to upgrade or purchase for own-stay, especially if there are urgent sales from owners of multiple properties (and there are plenty of such these days). I see a great future for Singapore as a global city for the wealthy, but private property is still too expensive an investment option for most people, and unlikely to be able to "flip" for quick profits.
Contine with: Impact of US Dollar Crash on Property Price
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Impact of US Dollar Crash on Property Market
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum :ann wrote:
Certainly, indiscriminate printing of US$ will lead to devaluation of the US$. Thus far, Asians have picked up the slack, but recent comments from China and Singapore seem to indicate Asia's patience is wearing thin....
PM Lee:
www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_307925.html
imbalances which had built up over the past five to seven years between the United States, which has run up huge budget deficits, and Asia, with burgeoning surpluses.
'We can't go back to where we were before, which is, Asians lend money to Americans... Americans borrow money to spend,' said Mr Lee. 'So how do we get savings and consumption back in balance?'
With the American consumer cutting back, someone else - whether the Chinese or the Indians - has to pick up the slack. The whole world would need to adjust to the new situation forced upon it by the crisis, he said.
The China Daily
www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_315471.html
BEIJING - CHINA warned on Wednesday it would not keep lending money to the US economy indefinitely, even as new data showed it had consolidated its position as the top buyer of American government bonds.
'China's increased purchase of US Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the US can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis,' the China Daily said in an editorial.
The warning from the state-run newspaper, an English-language daily that mainly addresses a foreign audience, came after the US Treasury Department reported a steep increase in Chinese holding of US Treasury bonds.
The China Daily said that, given the global economic crisis, the consequences would be serious if China and other nations stopped channelling money into the US economy.
'Interest rates in the US would rise to undermine that government's efforts to bailout distressed financial institutions and companies,' it said.
Anonymous wrote:
Much as China, and perhaps, Singapore, are getting impatient and possibly, fed-up with being at the mercy's of the US economy, their economies are so entrenched that to stop lending to US is easier say than done. The middle class populations in India and China are still too small to pick up the slack. The way I see it, it'll take another decade at least to balance the savings and consumptions imbalances in the current global economy.
Guest wrote:
Money needs to be constantly circulated as efficiently as possible to maintain economic productivity. Right now, too much money is idle in banks and reserves, and not being put to productive use.
As Americans spend less, China knows already that it needs to start spending more to hasten economic recovery, else if this trend continues, it will lead to ever slowing growth and eventually social instability as more people go out of work and can't afford basic necessities.
The US can only do so much as reduce their interest rates to near-zero so it needs China to do it's part as well as all the economies are interconnected. I expect in the next one year we will start seeing increased spending from the Asian powers, better flow of liquidity and recovery in the health of the global economy.
So what does this mean for Singapore property 2009? Prices will probably remain above 2006 levels, but not as exuberant as 2007. A good time to upgrade or purchase for own-stay, especially if there are urgent sales from owners of multiple properties (and there are plenty of such these days). I see a great future for Singapore as a global city for the wealthy, but private property is still too expensive an investment option for most people, and unlikely to be able to "flip" for quick profits.
Contine with: Impact of US Dollar Crash on Property Price
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
Is there sufficient government regulation to deter a subprime crisis in Singapore
Such checks would minimise impact of sudden economic downturn on investors
MANY Singaporeans who bought properties during the boom years have since been caught up by the sudden financial turmoil and found themselves in a bind as the property market has taken an about-turn and some banks have frozen lending.
.
Such investors stand to lose a lot of money should they sell in this declining market. The problem is compounded for “flippers” who are stuck with properties bought under deferred payment schemes, which they had every intention of selling as soon as prices went up. At its worst, economic turmoil can bring about the collapse of the property market, causing severe consequences to the economy at large.
.
Many people do not consider whether they can truly afford a long-term asset such as property when prices skyrocket, and blindly jump into the market hoping to get a good bargain — either to buy a dream home while it’s available, or to make a windfall by flipping the unit.
.
As with the financial advisory and insurance industries, maybe it is time that the Government and the relevant industry body implement a fact-finding process for potential home buyers. Under the Financial Advisers Act/Financial Advisers Regulations, the fact-finding process is mandatory before any investment product can be sold. The objective is to ensure consumers buy what they can afford, taking into account their needs and risk profiles.
.
Buying a property involves substantial financial resources and, for the Average Joe, probably a lifetime of commitment to service the loans. Many could end up enslaved to their properties. They could face significant financial losses when a negative equity situation occurs, in that their outstanding mortgage loans could exceed the market values of their properties.
.
It is high time a more rigorous regulatory regime, one with a focus on educating consumers, be added to help Singaporeans in their financial decisions.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property agents to do financial risk-profiling of potential property buyers?
The following letter is published in several mainstream media. I've reproduced it for blog visitors' comments. For discussion of this topic, read also the post:Is there sufficient government regulation to deter a subprime crisis in Singapore
Risk profiling for homebuyers? - Letter from Ee Teck Siew
Such checks would minimise impact of sudden economic downturn on investors
MANY Singaporeans who bought properties during the boom years have since been caught up by the sudden financial turmoil and found themselves in a bind as the property market has taken an about-turn and some banks have frozen lending.
.
Such investors stand to lose a lot of money should they sell in this declining market. The problem is compounded for “flippers” who are stuck with properties bought under deferred payment schemes, which they had every intention of selling as soon as prices went up. At its worst, economic turmoil can bring about the collapse of the property market, causing severe consequences to the economy at large.
.
Many people do not consider whether they can truly afford a long-term asset such as property when prices skyrocket, and blindly jump into the market hoping to get a good bargain — either to buy a dream home while it’s available, or to make a windfall by flipping the unit.
.
As with the financial advisory and insurance industries, maybe it is time that the Government and the relevant industry body implement a fact-finding process for potential home buyers. Under the Financial Advisers Act/Financial Advisers Regulations, the fact-finding process is mandatory before any investment product can be sold. The objective is to ensure consumers buy what they can afford, taking into account their needs and risk profiles.
.
Buying a property involves substantial financial resources and, for the Average Joe, probably a lifetime of commitment to service the loans. Many could end up enslaved to their properties. They could face significant financial losses when a negative equity situation occurs, in that their outstanding mortgage loans could exceed the market values of their properties.
.
It is high time a more rigorous regulatory regime, one with a focus on educating consumers, be added to help Singaporeans in their financial decisions.
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
About this Blog
Mr Lim: Says the nation's monetary policy stance is conducive to growth
'The economy is very volatile and very vulnerable to global conditions,' Mr Lim told reporters here yesterday.
'We believe that the growth for this year will come slightly below our earlier projections of 2.5 per cent because since September, there has been an unprecedented drop in world market conditions.'
Still, the nation's monetary policy stance is conducive to growth, he said.
The island's economy has shrunk for two straight quarters and companies such as DBS Group Holdings Ltd and Parkway Holdings Ltd have announced job and wage cuts.
The export-dependent country has been battered by declining orders from its biggest customers in the recession-hit nations of the US and Europe, as well as emerging markets.
The South-east Asian nation will expand 2.5 per cent in 2008, lower than an October forecast for 3 per cent growth and less than a third of 2007's pace, the trade ministry said last month.
The economy, already in recession, may shrink by as much as one per cent next year, the first time since 2001, it predicted then. -- Bloomberg
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Growth may be below 2.5% in '08: Hng Kiang
SINGAPORE'S economic growth this year may miss the government's forecast as the global economy worsens amid a credit crisis, Trade Minister Lim Hng Kiang said.Mr Lim: Says the nation's monetary policy stance is conducive to growth
'The economy is very volatile and very vulnerable to global conditions,' Mr Lim told reporters here yesterday.
'We believe that the growth for this year will come slightly below our earlier projections of 2.5 per cent because since September, there has been an unprecedented drop in world market conditions.'
Still, the nation's monetary policy stance is conducive to growth, he said.
The island's economy has shrunk for two straight quarters and companies such as DBS Group Holdings Ltd and Parkway Holdings Ltd have announced job and wage cuts.
The export-dependent country has been battered by declining orders from its biggest customers in the recession-hit nations of the US and Europe, as well as emerging markets.
The South-east Asian nation will expand 2.5 per cent in 2008, lower than an October forecast for 3 per cent growth and less than a third of 2007's pace, the trade ministry said last month.
The economy, already in recession, may shrink by as much as one per cent next year, the first time since 2001, it predicted then. -- Bloomberg
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Monday, December 15, 2008
About this Blog
‘We do feel they are a shade conservative now. It used to be easy if you wanted to buy a second property,’ said Mr Eugene Lim, associate director of real estate firm ERA Asia-Pacific.
‘Now, they actually pay more attention to the buyer - like the stability of his income, whether the household is one or dual income,’ he said.
Property loans, which used to take three days to be approved, may now take a week, noted MrReeve Ho, senior vice-president of property firm HSR International.
There is now more to-ing and fro-ing in processing loans too, he observed.
‘In the past, they would give the nod if all the documents were in order. Now, even with all the documents in order, they may grant a smaller loan,’ he said.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) allows a home buyer to take a loan of up to 90% of the home’s purchase price or valuation, whichever is lower.
But banks are granting 60%-70% of the price, said those in the property business.
ERA’s Mr Lim added that a salaried applicant with not more than one property, and hence less likely to be a speculator or to be overstretched, would find it easier to get a loan than someone whose income is commission-based.
But banks such as DBS, OCBC, UOB and Citibank insisted that it is business as usual and they have not tightened credit.
‘Our prudent consumer credit assessment process helps us evaluate the applicant’s ability to service a credit facility such as a car or housing loan, regardless of market conditions,’ said a UOB spokesman.
‘These credit facilities should never become a financial burden to our customers, in good or bad times. Customers with good credit records and stable income should not face problems getting a credit facility from us.’
Citibank said it continues to see steady growth for its credit card and personal credit line, Ready Credit, applications.
‘While we are cognisant of the environment, we make every credit line assignment tailored to the individual customer’s situation.
‘We continue to use rigorous credit criteria which take into account credit history, sources of income and employment status, among others,’ said Mr John Denhof, its business director for credit payment products.
Extract:Sunday Times, 14 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Bank Loans for Property see Credit Crunch
Financial institutions are not admitting to it, but they appear to have turned shy in granting loans, especially for property and motor vehicles, some observers say.‘We do feel they are a shade conservative now. It used to be easy if you wanted to buy a second property,’ said Mr Eugene Lim, associate director of real estate firm ERA Asia-Pacific.
Banks pay more attention to stability of income for loans assessment
‘Now, they actually pay more attention to the buyer - like the stability of his income, whether the household is one or dual income,’ he said.
Mortgage take longer to be approved
Property loans, which used to take three days to be approved, may now take a week, noted MrReeve Ho, senior vice-president of property firm HSR International.
There is now more to-ing and fro-ing in processing loans too, he observed.
‘In the past, they would give the nod if all the documents were in order. Now, even with all the documents in order, they may grant a smaller loan,’ he said.
Banks grant mortgage only 60%-70%, instead of 90%
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) allows a home buyer to take a loan of up to 90% of the home’s purchase price or valuation, whichever is lower.
But banks are granting 60%-70% of the price, said those in the property business.
ERA’s Mr Lim added that a salaried applicant with not more than one property, and hence less likely to be a speculator or to be overstretched, would find it easier to get a loan than someone whose income is commission-based.
DBS, OCBC, UOB and Citibank say no credit tightening
But banks such as DBS, OCBC, UOB and Citibank insisted that it is business as usual and they have not tightened credit.
‘Our prudent consumer credit assessment process helps us evaluate the applicant’s ability to service a credit facility such as a car or housing loan, regardless of market conditions,’ said a UOB spokesman.
‘These credit facilities should never become a financial burden to our customers, in good or bad times. Customers with good credit records and stable income should not face problems getting a credit facility from us.’
Citibank said it continues to see steady growth for its credit card and personal credit line, Ready Credit, applications.
‘While we are cognisant of the environment, we make every credit line assignment tailored to the individual customer’s situation.
‘We continue to use rigorous credit criteria which take into account credit history, sources of income and employment status, among others,’ said Mr John Denhof, its business director for credit payment products.
Extract:Sunday Times, 14 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
‘This number may increase given the weak homebuying sentiment which is expected to persist,’ said Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak.
Going ahead, there could also be a pool of sellers of newly completed, unoccupied developments eager to let go of their units. Because of the economic uncertainty, some owners of newly completed developments may be looking to offload their property instead of holding on to a big investment.
Although most of the projects targeted for completion next year received a good take-up rate during the good years in 2006 and last year, some of them would have been sold at high prices.
‘Some buyers who have stretched their financial limits and bought multiple units may sell these units on the resale market, so potential buyers will have more choices,’ said Mr Mak.
For example at The Sea View, a recently completed condo near the bustling Parkway Parade mall, there are unoccupied high-floor units going for $930 per sq ft (psf). Caveats filed this year showed that deals had been done at $1,000 psf and above.
Other recently completed condos that still have new units available include Lakeshore in Jurong West, Icon in Tanjong Pagar, Park Infinia at Wee Nam in Lincoln Road and St Regis Residences Singapore in Cuscaden Road.
Extract:Sunday Times, 15 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Unsold condo units increase with TOP at The Sea View, Lakeshore, Icon, Park Infinia, St Regis Residences
At the end of the third quarter, the number of unsold units in completed non-landed developments stood at 759, up from 461 a year ago.Number of unsold condo units may continue to increase with weak sentiment
‘This number may increase given the weak homebuying sentiment which is expected to persist,’ said Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak.
Seller of TOP condos eager to let go of unoccupied units
Going ahead, there could also be a pool of sellers of newly completed, unoccupied developments eager to let go of their units. Because of the economic uncertainty, some owners of newly completed developments may be looking to offload their property instead of holding on to a big investment.
Potential Buyers may have more choices by 2009
Although most of the projects targeted for completion next year received a good take-up rate during the good years in 2006 and last year, some of them would have been sold at high prices.
‘Some buyers who have stretched their financial limits and bought multiple units may sell these units on the resale market, so potential buyers will have more choices,’ said Mr Mak.
Unsold completed units at The Sea View, Lakeshore, Icon, Park Infinia, St Regis Residences
For example at The Sea View, a recently completed condo near the bustling Parkway Parade mall, there are unoccupied high-floor units going for $930 per sq ft (psf). Caveats filed this year showed that deals had been done at $1,000 psf and above.
Other recently completed condos that still have new units available include Lakeshore in Jurong West, Icon in Tanjong Pagar, Park Infinia at Wee Nam in Lincoln Road and St Regis Residences Singapore in Cuscaden Road.
Extract:Sunday Times, 15 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Saturday, December 13, 2008
About this Blog
'HDB plans to offer about 3,000 flats for sale annually in Punggol, subject to demand,' said Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan yesterday. 'By end-2011, there will be about 23,000 flats completed. Our plans to launch the first sale site at the Town Centre for a mixed commercial and private residential development are also on track. We will be launching this waterfront site by 2010/2011.'
Right now, there are about 17,000 HDB flats in Punggol. Since August last year, HDB has launched over 5,000 flats under seven Build-To-Order (BTO) projects in the town.
Construction on the $25 million project to revamp the waterway will begin next year and be completed by 2010, HDB said.
After that, plans for special housing designs that will capitalise on the views along the waterway will be developed, Mr Mah said. The idea, he said, is to bring the waterway closer to residents. 'With the waterway landscape proposals completed, we can focus on another important milestone in our Punggol journey: shaping the housing along the Punggol Waterway.'
With this in mind, HDB yesterday launched a new design competition for Punggol's Waterfront public housing. Competing firms will have to come up with a masterplan for some 6,000 HDB flats during the first stage. Five finalists will be chosen to proceed to the second stage, where they will have to come up with a more detailed plan for a smaller plot of land, with an estimated 1,300 units, within the bigger site.
Extract: BT, 13 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Punggol's waterfront HDB flats and private homes from 2010
PUNGGOL, which started out as a sleepy fishing village, will get a new lease of life from 2010 onwards, with thousands of waterfront HDB flats and private homes planned alongside the soon-to-be bustling 4.2km Punggol Waterway.Launch of Punggol waterfront site by 2010/2011
'HDB plans to offer about 3,000 flats for sale annually in Punggol, subject to demand,' said Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan yesterday. 'By end-2011, there will be about 23,000 flats completed. Our plans to launch the first sale site at the Town Centre for a mixed commercial and private residential development are also on track. We will be launching this waterfront site by 2010/2011.'
Right now, there are about 17,000 HDB flats in Punggol. Since August last year, HDB has launched over 5,000 flats under seven Build-To-Order (BTO) projects in the town.
Construction on the $25 million project to revamp the waterway will begin next year and be completed by 2010, HDB said.
Housing along the Punggol Waterway
After that, plans for special housing designs that will capitalise on the views along the waterway will be developed, Mr Mah said. The idea, he said, is to bring the waterway closer to residents. 'With the waterway landscape proposals completed, we can focus on another important milestone in our Punggol journey: shaping the housing along the Punggol Waterway.'
With this in mind, HDB yesterday launched a new design competition for Punggol's Waterfront public housing. Competing firms will have to come up with a masterplan for some 6,000 HDB flats during the first stage. Five finalists will be chosen to proceed to the second stage, where they will have to come up with a more detailed plan for a smaller plot of land, with an estimated 1,300 units, within the bigger site.
Extract: BT, 13 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
Mr Liew added: 'Now that the bulk of the units has been sold, our next goal is to make sure we deliver a quality home, and on time, to our customers.'
Park Central @ AMK is expected to get TOP (temporary occupation permit) in mid-2011.
The development is the third Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) development in Singapore.
The Housing and Development Board ( HDB ) scheme, which allows private developers to sell homes under HDB terms, was first announced in 2005.
UE says that since the launch in July, Park Central @ AMK received more than 2,300 applications. Its showflats also saw more than 23,000 visitors in the first two weeks.
A spokesman for UE added that most of the buyers have opted for HDB loans.
Last month, Chinese firm QingJian Realty launched the fourth DBSS development, Natura Loft at Bishan, with units going for around $450-$570 psf.
On Nov 14, it was reported that Natura Loft received about 600 applications for 480 flats a day before the close of applications.
BT, 12 Dec 2008
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HDB DBSS 6 Sites Detail Information
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Park Central @ AMK 70% sold
UE managing director of integrated facility management and property development business David Liew said that all the four-bedroom and penthouse units in the 578-unit development have been sold with only five-room units left.Mr Liew added: 'Now that the bulk of the units has been sold, our next goal is to make sure we deliver a quality home, and on time, to our customers.'
Park Central @ AMK is expected to get TOP (temporary occupation permit) in mid-2011.
The development is the third Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) development in Singapore.
The Housing and Development Board ( HDB ) scheme, which allows private developers to sell homes under HDB terms, was first announced in 2005.
UE says that since the launch in July, Park Central @ AMK received more than 2,300 applications. Its showflats also saw more than 23,000 visitors in the first two weeks.
A spokesman for UE added that most of the buyers have opted for HDB loans.
Last month, Chinese firm QingJian Realty launched the fourth DBSS development, Natura Loft at Bishan, with units going for around $450-$570 psf.
On Nov 14, it was reported that Natura Loft received about 600 applications for 480 flats a day before the close of applications.
BT, 12 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
HDB DBSS 6 Sites Detail Information
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Friday, December 12, 2008
About this Blog
The weak property market sentiment and tight financing have combined to compress the total investment sales of Singapore real estate to just $17.8 billion, year-to-date. This is a third of the record $54 billion achieved for the whole of last year, according to CB Richard Ellis data.
Just $290 million of investment sales have taken place in Q4 this year (up to Dec 9).
What is Investment Sales
Investment sales are a gauge of developers' and investors' medium- to long-term confidence in the property sector.
CBRE defines such deals as transactions with a value of at least $5 million, comprising government and private sales of land and buildings (both strata and en bloc). It also includes change of ownership of real estate via share sales.
Market watchers are not upbeat about the investment sales climate in the near future. CBRE forecasts the tally for next year could come in at a modest $5-10 billion, a level last seen in 2004.
Investors will remain on the sidelines
CBRE executive director Jeremy Lake says: 'With market uncertainty and economic risks appearing to be on the downside, many investors will remain on the sidelines of the property market, waiting for signs of price stabilisation before investing. With the global economy likely to enter a protracted downturn on the back of the deepening financial crisis, transaction volumes in property are expected to remain low over the next few quarters.'
Agreeing, DTZ senior director Shaun Poh says: 'I would not be surprised if we don't see any major transactions for the next three to six months. Potential investors are waiting for property prices to come down. Even property funds that have raised money can't make acquisitions because of the difficulty of raising the debt component to pay for the purchase - despite trying to source for financing in overseas markets like Hong Kong and London in some instances.'
Capital available for property investment become even scarcer
CBRE's Mr Lake too notes that 'as credit market conditions worsen and lenders further reduce their risk appetite, capital available for property investment would become even scarcer'.
'In addition, cheap investment opportunities may arise in other asset classes, diverting capital away from property,' he added.
The property consultancy group's quarterly breakdown of investment sales shows that they have been sliding since Q3 last year, when a whopping $16.5 billion of deals were sealed. The performance in each quarter of this year has been lower than the corresponding periods of 2007, sliding to $290 million this quarter.
Residential sector still accounted for the lion's share
While the residential sector still accounted for the lion's share or 35 per cent of total investment sales deals so far this year, this was lower than the 61 per cent share last year. Also, the $6.25 billion transacted value of residential investment sales year-to-date (as of Dec 9) was 81 per cent below the full-year 2007 figure.
Collective sales market was dormant
The collective sales market was dormant as developers remained mindful of the lukewarm response to new residential launches, rising construction costs and tighter credit measures, CBRE observed. Only seven collective sales worth a total $371 million have been sealed so far this year, against the record $12.4 billion from 111 transactions in 2007.
Landed property sale slows
The Good Class Bungalow (GCB) market has also slowed considerably in 2008. A total of 48 GCB transactions worth $763.7 million have been done this year, down from $1.2 billion from 90 deals in 2007.
Office investment sales in 2008 62% below 2007
Office investment sales of $5.4 billion so far this year are 62 per cent below the $14.3 billion for full-year 2007. Ongoing turmoil in the global economy contributed to further deterioration in business sentiment, which subsequently had an impact on the office leasing market and capital flows in the local office sector.
'This resulted in no major en bloc office transactions in the second half of 2008. Hence, the office investment market is expected to remain quiet in the next few months,' CBRE said.
Sizeable office investment deals in the first half of this year included One George Street ($1.7 billion or $2,600 per square foot of net lettable area), Singapore Power Building ($1.01 billion or $1,836 psf), The Atrium @ Orchard ($839.8 million or $2,249 psf), Hitachi Tower ($811 million or $2,901 psf) and 71 Robinson Road ($743.75 million or $3,125 psf).
Industrial property sector in 2008 66% higher than 2007
Bucking the trend was the industrial property sector which contributed $3.32 billion of investment sales deals this year, 66 per cent higher than last year and also the best showing since 2002. About half of the tally for this year was accounted for by JTC Corporation's $1.7 billion divestment of its industrial portfolio to a joint venture involving Mapletree Investments, Arcapita and Mapletree Industrial Fund.
BT, 12 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property investment sales slow to a trickle
Players wary of big bang deals amid weaker sentiment, tighter financingThe weak property market sentiment and tight financing have combined to compress the total investment sales of Singapore real estate to just $17.8 billion, year-to-date. This is a third of the record $54 billion achieved for the whole of last year, according to CB Richard Ellis data.
Just $290 million of investment sales have taken place in Q4 this year (up to Dec 9).
What is Investment Sales
Investment sales are a gauge of developers' and investors' medium- to long-term confidence in the property sector.
CBRE defines such deals as transactions with a value of at least $5 million, comprising government and private sales of land and buildings (both strata and en bloc). It also includes change of ownership of real estate via share sales.
Market watchers are not upbeat about the investment sales climate in the near future. CBRE forecasts the tally for next year could come in at a modest $5-10 billion, a level last seen in 2004.
Investors will remain on the sidelines
CBRE executive director Jeremy Lake says: 'With market uncertainty and economic risks appearing to be on the downside, many investors will remain on the sidelines of the property market, waiting for signs of price stabilisation before investing. With the global economy likely to enter a protracted downturn on the back of the deepening financial crisis, transaction volumes in property are expected to remain low over the next few quarters.'
Agreeing, DTZ senior director Shaun Poh says: 'I would not be surprised if we don't see any major transactions for the next three to six months. Potential investors are waiting for property prices to come down. Even property funds that have raised money can't make acquisitions because of the difficulty of raising the debt component to pay for the purchase - despite trying to source for financing in overseas markets like Hong Kong and London in some instances.'
Capital available for property investment become even scarcer
CBRE's Mr Lake too notes that 'as credit market conditions worsen and lenders further reduce their risk appetite, capital available for property investment would become even scarcer'.
'In addition, cheap investment opportunities may arise in other asset classes, diverting capital away from property,' he added.
The property consultancy group's quarterly breakdown of investment sales shows that they have been sliding since Q3 last year, when a whopping $16.5 billion of deals were sealed. The performance in each quarter of this year has been lower than the corresponding periods of 2007, sliding to $290 million this quarter.
Residential sector still accounted for the lion's share
While the residential sector still accounted for the lion's share or 35 per cent of total investment sales deals so far this year, this was lower than the 61 per cent share last year. Also, the $6.25 billion transacted value of residential investment sales year-to-date (as of Dec 9) was 81 per cent below the full-year 2007 figure.
Collective sales market was dormant
The collective sales market was dormant as developers remained mindful of the lukewarm response to new residential launches, rising construction costs and tighter credit measures, CBRE observed. Only seven collective sales worth a total $371 million have been sealed so far this year, against the record $12.4 billion from 111 transactions in 2007.
Landed property sale slows
The Good Class Bungalow (GCB) market has also slowed considerably in 2008. A total of 48 GCB transactions worth $763.7 million have been done this year, down from $1.2 billion from 90 deals in 2007.
Office investment sales in 2008 62% below 2007
Office investment sales of $5.4 billion so far this year are 62 per cent below the $14.3 billion for full-year 2007. Ongoing turmoil in the global economy contributed to further deterioration in business sentiment, which subsequently had an impact on the office leasing market and capital flows in the local office sector.
'This resulted in no major en bloc office transactions in the second half of 2008. Hence, the office investment market is expected to remain quiet in the next few months,' CBRE said.
Sizeable office investment deals in the first half of this year included One George Street ($1.7 billion or $2,600 per square foot of net lettable area), Singapore Power Building ($1.01 billion or $1,836 psf), The Atrium @ Orchard ($839.8 million or $2,249 psf), Hitachi Tower ($811 million or $2,901 psf) and 71 Robinson Road ($743.75 million or $3,125 psf).
Industrial property sector in 2008 66% higher than 2007
Bucking the trend was the industrial property sector which contributed $3.32 billion of investment sales deals this year, 66 per cent higher than last year and also the best showing since 2002. About half of the tally for this year was accounted for by JTC Corporation's $1.7 billion divestment of its industrial portfolio to a joint venture involving Mapletree Investments, Arcapita and Mapletree Industrial Fund.
BT, 12 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
“Developers are more likely to launch projects in suburban areas or projects with smaller units so that the absolute amount is affordable,” an analyst said.
.
However, others believe there are likely to be better bargains in the secondary market, where individuals may be under pressure to offload their properties in a downturn.
.
Noting that prices for mass-market condos now average between $650 to $750 per square foot in suburban locations, ERA Asia-Pacific’s assistant vice-president Eugene Lim said that developers, especially those with the financial strength, will probably not cut prices until after the 2009 Budget at the end of January next year.
Extracted from BT 11 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Developers to woo HDB Upgraders as foreign buyers pull out
WITH foreign buyers pulling out of Singapore’s property market on the back of deteriorating global economic conditions, Housing Development Board upgraders are forming an increasingly important group of buyers here.“Developers are more likely to launch projects in suburban areas or projects with smaller units so that the absolute amount is affordable,” an analyst said.
.
However, others believe there are likely to be better bargains in the secondary market, where individuals may be under pressure to offload their properties in a downturn.
.
Noting that prices for mass-market condos now average between $650 to $750 per square foot in suburban locations, ERA Asia-Pacific’s assistant vice-president Eugene Lim said that developers, especially those with the financial strength, will probably not cut prices until after the 2009 Budget at the end of January next year.
Extracted from BT 11 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Thursday, December 11, 2008
About this Blog
'The uncertainty has to go away first. Companies will make a lot of decisions after the Singapore Budget in January.'
'Hopefully after that, some of the dust will settle and things will get clearer.'
Agreeing, the seasoned property agent said: 'It's easier to match buyers and sellers when things are more stable and we should start to see volumes improving from mid-next year.'
Extracted from Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Repricing expected after Jan's Spore Budget to break stalemate
Overall current thin private residential transaction volume is being caused by a 'price mismatch between unwilling sellers and unwilling buyers' and the stalemate is expected to last 'until repricing takes place', DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah says.'The uncertainty has to go away first. Companies will make a lot of decisions after the Singapore Budget in January.'
'Hopefully after that, some of the dust will settle and things will get clearer.'
Agreeing, the seasoned property agent said: 'It's easier to match buyers and sellers when things are more stable and we should start to see volumes improving from mid-next year.'
Extracted from Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
About this Blog
Market watchers note that high-end residential property prices climbed much earlier during the bull-cycle and the price gains recorded were also much steeper. In contrast, mass-market home prices have lagged. 'So what goes up faster during the bull-run also tends to fall faster during the downturn; its physics,' as one seasoned residential property consultant put it.
Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh feels that high-end condo prices tend to be more elastic in relation to property cycles compared with mass-market projects. This is partly due to differing buyer profiles in the two segments. 'Suburban condo buyers usually make their purchases for their own use and less as a tool for investment or speculation, unlike buyers in the high-end segment,' Mr Singh says.
'Prices are not a perfect science at the high-end due to the profile of the rich and foreign buyers who make up a good proportion of demand. They're less price sensitive and the products are less homogeneous; if there's something they like, even if it is priced at a premium, they're quite happy to buy it,' Mr Singh says.
Agreeing, another property consultant says that during the downward slide, 'investors, if they need to keep themselves liquid, will exit. In many cases, they may still make a profit even if price drops, as they entered the market early. But even if they need to cut losses, they will. Suburban home buyers, however, are likely to have purchased for their own occupation or upgrading, so they can't sell so readily.'
Credo's Mr Singh points out that the dramatic volatility in high-end prices over the past three years has also been shaped by the large number of prime district en bloc sales in 2006-07. This led to a chunk of the physical stock being withdrawn and driving high-end prices up astronomically. On the flip side, this global crisis in 2007-08 has actually impacted the rich much more than the man in the street, thereby dampening demand for high-end homes.
Credo's sample looked at Four Seasons Park condo, Ardmore Park and Cairnhill Crest in the Orchard Road belt, which showed average transacted prices fell 27, 12 and 17 per cent respectively in H2 2008 over H2 2007.
At Sentosa Cove, Credo's sample basket comprised The Azure, The Berth and The Oceanfront condos. The declines were 22 per cent for The Azure and 28 per cent for The Oceanfront. The sole unit transacted this half for The Berth was at $1,590 psf, down 5 per cent from the $1,679 psf average price achieved for 20 deals in H2 last year.
In the city centre, the average price at Marina Bay Residences fell 17 per cent to $1,985 psf in H2 2008 with five deals done. At The Sail @ Marina Bay, the average price slipped 14 per cent to $1,811 psf, with 42 deals in H2 2008.
In the mid-priced segment - defined as the low-$1,000 psf price range - One Amber, Sky@Eleven and The Tessarina - saw average transacted prices fall 19, 21 and 17 per cent respectively.
However, suburban Singapore demonstrated greater price resilience. Average transacted prices of eight of nine projects studied in the west, east and north posted 1 to 7 per cent gains in H2 2008 over H2 2007.
Credo's analysed caveats captured by Urban Redevelopment Authority's Realis system up to early November. 'We selected projects we felt symbolise their respective location-based categories, are large enough with sufficient transactions relative to the project size to reflect a clear trend, and were ideally not affected by en bloc sales initiatives last year as that could distort price patterns,' Mr Singh explains.
Property analysts generally expect the trend of high-end home prices being less resilient than mass-market prices to continue in 2009.
However, DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah argues that the decline in the high-end segment has to slow down at some stage. 'There has to be a price gap between the mass-market and high-end; otherwise, we'll start seeing a trade-off and demand may shift to the upper segments under market dynamics,' Mrs Ong says.
Extracted from Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Spore High End Properties merely High-Priced
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Repricing Expected After Jan's Singapore Budget
High-End Condos fared worse than Mass Market Condos
Credo's study shows that average prices of high-end projects generally posted declines, ranging from 12%-28% during the period. In contrast, the average prices of units in selected projects in the mass market generally rose 1%-7% between second-half 2007 and second-half 2008.What goes up faster will come down faster
Market watchers note that high-end residential property prices climbed much earlier during the bull-cycle and the price gains recorded were also much steeper. In contrast, mass-market home prices have lagged. 'So what goes up faster during the bull-run also tends to fall faster during the downturn; its physics,' as one seasoned residential property consultant put it.
High-End Condos' Demand More Elastic
Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh feels that high-end condo prices tend to be more elastic in relation to property cycles compared with mass-market projects. This is partly due to differing buyer profiles in the two segments. 'Suburban condo buyers usually make their purchases for their own use and less as a tool for investment or speculation, unlike buyers in the high-end segment,' Mr Singh says.
'Prices are not a perfect science at the high-end due to the profile of the rich and foreign buyers who make up a good proportion of demand. They're less price sensitive and the products are less homogeneous; if there's something they like, even if it is priced at a premium, they're quite happy to buy it,' Mr Singh says.
Mass Market Buyers for own occupation
Agreeing, another property consultant says that during the downward slide, 'investors, if they need to keep themselves liquid, will exit. In many cases, they may still make a profit even if price drops, as they entered the market early. But even if they need to cut losses, they will. Suburban home buyers, however, are likely to have purchased for their own occupation or upgrading, so they can't sell so readily.'
Global crisis impacted the rich much more than the man in the street
Credo's Mr Singh points out that the dramatic volatility in high-end prices over the past three years has also been shaped by the large number of prime district en bloc sales in 2006-07. This led to a chunk of the physical stock being withdrawn and driving high-end prices up astronomically. On the flip side, this global crisis in 2007-08 has actually impacted the rich much more than the man in the street, thereby dampening demand for high-end homes.
High-End Property Price Fell 12%-28%, Mass Market Condos Up 1%-7%
Credo's sample looked at Four Seasons Park condo, Ardmore Park and Cairnhill Crest in the Orchard Road belt, which showed average transacted prices fell 27, 12 and 17 per cent respectively in H2 2008 over H2 2007.
At Sentosa Cove, Credo's sample basket comprised The Azure, The Berth and The Oceanfront condos. The declines were 22 per cent for The Azure and 28 per cent for The Oceanfront. The sole unit transacted this half for The Berth was at $1,590 psf, down 5 per cent from the $1,679 psf average price achieved for 20 deals in H2 last year.
In the city centre, the average price at Marina Bay Residences fell 17 per cent to $1,985 psf in H2 2008 with five deals done. At The Sail @ Marina Bay, the average price slipped 14 per cent to $1,811 psf, with 42 deals in H2 2008.
In the mid-priced segment - defined as the low-$1,000 psf price range - One Amber, Sky@Eleven and The Tessarina - saw average transacted prices fall 19, 21 and 17 per cent respectively.
However, suburban Singapore demonstrated greater price resilience. Average transacted prices of eight of nine projects studied in the west, east and north posted 1 to 7 per cent gains in H2 2008 over H2 2007.
Trends to continue to 2009
Credo's analysed caveats captured by Urban Redevelopment Authority's Realis system up to early November. 'We selected projects we felt symbolise their respective location-based categories, are large enough with sufficient transactions relative to the project size to reflect a clear trend, and were ideally not affected by en bloc sales initiatives last year as that could distort price patterns,' Mr Singh explains.
Property analysts generally expect the trend of high-end home prices being less resilient than mass-market prices to continue in 2009.
Price gap between high-end property and mass market will eventually close
However, DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah argues that the decline in the high-end segment has to slow down at some stage. 'There has to be a price gap between the mass-market and high-end; otherwise, we'll start seeing a trade-off and demand may shift to the upper segments under market dynamics,' Mrs Ong says.
Extracted from Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Spore High End Properties merely High-Priced
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Repricing Expected After Jan's Singapore Budget
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
About this Blog
Eric Cheng, executive director, HSR Property Consultants, said: “They are afraid that the current loans may not sustain the current price which they bought. There’s also concern that the banks may not want to loan them at least an 80% loan. So they are afraid they have to top up more cash.”
Calculations, however, show that these sellers will still make marginal profits or break even if they cash in on their properties now. Agents expect the market to hold up without heading to a fire sale situation where assets go at 20% to 30% below valuation.
Despite the negative sentiment, market players said there’s still demand for properties especially those that are realistically priced. These are sold at between 3%-5% below market value. Eugene Lim, associate director, ERA Asia Pacific, said: “There are cases of fire sales but they are confined to sellers who generally need to raise cash fast. For example, they may be running a business and run into some cashflow problems.”
Extract from CNA - 9 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS) buyers to unload properties on credit crunch
HSR Property Consultants said there’s been an 8% jump in the number of private homes being put up for sale recently compared to previous two quarters; and about half of the sellers have bought units under the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS).Eric Cheng, executive director, HSR Property Consultants, said: “They are afraid that the current loans may not sustain the current price which they bought. There’s also concern that the banks may not want to loan them at least an 80% loan. So they are afraid they have to top up more cash.”
Sellers still make marginal profits or breakeven
Calculations, however, show that these sellers will still make marginal profits or break even if they cash in on their properties now. Agents expect the market to hold up without heading to a fire sale situation where assets go at 20% to 30% below valuation.
No widespread fire sales, said property agents
Despite the negative sentiment, market players said there’s still demand for properties especially those that are realistically priced. These are sold at between 3%-5% below market value. Eugene Lim, associate director, ERA Asia Pacific, said: “There are cases of fire sales but they are confined to sellers who generally need to raise cash fast. For example, they may be running a business and run into some cashflow problems.”
Extract from CNA - 9 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Monday, December 8, 2008
About this Blog
New HDB flats are subsidised and priced below those of resale flats in the same area. But there has been a shift in the market cycle, and the HDB resale market is seen heading south because of the current recession. ‘This is more or less the peak for HDB flat prices,’ said C&H Realty managing director Albert Lu.
While new flats have always been a safe bet, some who bought or are buying them now may find themselves with a paper loss soon.
The situation is similar to that in the previous 1996 peak. Back then, those who bought new flats in the new town of Sengkang found themselves ‘under water’ a few years later, said Mr Eugene Lim, an associate director of ERA Asia Pacific. The prices they paid were higher than those of resale flats in the area.
Experts say that as the HDB resale market slowly inches down, this scenario may present itself again. ‘Those who buy new flats when resale prices are high may have a higher probability of losing out,’ said Mr Leong Sze Hian, president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals.
‘In contrast, those who buy when resale prices are low may have a higher probability of a price appreciation. So, maybe a balanced cost-approach pricing may be better instead of market subsidy.’
The balanced cost-approach is based on pricing the cost of building the flats. It will give rise to more stable prices that reflect inflation and wage increases, he explained.
Buyers of new build-to-order flats will have to wait about three years, by which time the market may have changed completely. They may end up in a position where their new flat’s price is similar or higher than resale prices, MrLu said.
Experts, though, are quick to add that it will be only a paper loss, if any. ‘If you don’t sell your flat, you will not see any loss,’ explained ERA’s Mr Lim. ‘There is a downside risk to buying a new flat, but it is very small.’
In any case, buyers of new flats have to occupy their units for at least five years before they can sell them. Many often continue to live in them for years after that, experts say.
In the next five to 10 years, if the world economy strengthens, the next peak for HDB flat prices may be higher than where they are right now, said Mr Lu.
There is, therefore, the possibility of a capital appreciation, but any gains will likely be smaller than before, since today’s buyers are paying a lot more for their HDB flats.
‘It’s no longer the $100,000 to $200,000 types of gains that were easily attainable in the past,’ said Mr Lim.
Mr Lu said that for those seeking a new flat to live in, it would not really matter when they buy. If they were to buy high and sell low, they would also be able to buy a replacement home at a low price, he pointed out.
Ultimately, new HDB flats remain the cheapest form of housing in Singapore.
Still, buyers have to work out their sums first.
Regardless of the economic situation or any potential capital appreciation gains, the key is to buy a flat that one can afford, experts advise.
Extracted from Sunday Times - 7 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
HDB New Flats not a safe bet as Resale HDB prices fall
It used to be that one could never lose out buying a new HDB flat from the Government. It was a sure-win bet to a better life for many as they sold their flats for windfall gains after five years, as allowed under HDB rules, and upgraded to newer or bigger and nicer homes. This, however, may no longer be the case these days.New HDB flats are subsidised and priced below those of resale flats in the same area. But there has been a shift in the market cycle, and the HDB resale market is seen heading south because of the current recession. ‘This is more or less the peak for HDB flat prices,’ said C&H Realty managing director Albert Lu.
New HDB flats not a safe bet as seen in 1996 Peak
While new flats have always been a safe bet, some who bought or are buying them now may find themselves with a paper loss soon.
The situation is similar to that in the previous 1996 peak. Back then, those who bought new flats in the new town of Sengkang found themselves ‘under water’ a few years later, said Mr Eugene Lim, an associate director of ERA Asia Pacific. The prices they paid were higher than those of resale flats in the area.
Experts say that as the HDB resale market slowly inches down, this scenario may present itself again. ‘Those who buy new flats when resale prices are high may have a higher probability of losing out,’ said Mr Leong Sze Hian, president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals.
‘In contrast, those who buy when resale prices are low may have a higher probability of a price appreciation. So, maybe a balanced cost-approach pricing may be better instead of market subsidy.’
Cost-Approach Pricing for HDB New flats
The balanced cost-approach is based on pricing the cost of building the flats. It will give rise to more stable prices that reflect inflation and wage increases, he explained.
Buyers of new build-to-order flats will have to wait about three years, by which time the market may have changed completely. They may end up in a position where their new flat’s price is similar or higher than resale prices, MrLu said.
Experts, though, are quick to add that it will be only a paper loss, if any. ‘If you don’t sell your flat, you will not see any loss,’ explained ERA’s Mr Lim. ‘There is a downside risk to buying a new flat, but it is very small.’
In any case, buyers of new flats have to occupy their units for at least five years before they can sell them. Many often continue to live in them for years after that, experts say.
HDB flats capital appreciation likely be smaller than in the past
In the next five to 10 years, if the world economy strengthens, the next peak for HDB flat prices may be higher than where they are right now, said Mr Lu.
There is, therefore, the possibility of a capital appreciation, but any gains will likely be smaller than before, since today’s buyers are paying a lot more for their HDB flats.
‘It’s no longer the $100,000 to $200,000 types of gains that were easily attainable in the past,’ said Mr Lim.
Mr Lu said that for those seeking a new flat to live in, it would not really matter when they buy. If they were to buy high and sell low, they would also be able to buy a replacement home at a low price, he pointed out.
Ultimately, new HDB flats remain the cheapest form of housing in Singapore.
Still, buyers have to work out their sums first.
Regardless of the economic situation or any potential capital appreciation gains, the key is to buy a flat that one can afford, experts advise.
Extracted from Sunday Times - 7 Dec 2008
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
We can roughly said that there are some events which will likely to derail whatever efforts the world governments have done. The repercussions to the world and small city like Singapore will be very serious:
1) the financial system in the world have been broken so severely that it impairs the US and Europe economy ability to relevage and completely mute the strength of its cyclical recovery. These are major economies and the richest of the richest in the past. THis is very bad for Singapore who is totally dependent on the two sinful casinos and constructional activities to spur economic growth and jobs. Singapore do not have a motherland like HK or Sydney to fall back and we are just compliant citizens and not entreprenuers. We need the government to hold our hands.
2) as more jobs are lost (soon in millions) in major economies, it is a liquidity trap and any fiscal or interest cuts have no effects resulting in fear and people not spending or hoarding cash. More layoffs is coming to Singapore as Singaoreans will be hard hit. Worst in Singapore, people are heavy in assets and as they age and easily "kiasu" they become more conservative, lonely and withdraw, not willing to spend. They will save for fear of ill health (high hospital bills) thanks to our non-welfare state.
3) the US is now a debtor nation and owes the rest of the world more than US$2trillions. the US$ can crash and there is a real risk of a major currency crisis as investors shun dollar based assets resulting in more deflation of assets denominated in US$. Another crisis is now looming as the rise in US$ is too steep like another bubble in the making.
4) Look at China, yes mighty and GDP of 7 to 9 % growth even at this time. But they have to generate 24m jobs every year. It is a very difficult country to manage (nothing compare to managing Singapore) and how you expect a slowdown will bring jobless youth and workers there with no social problems in a billion population country? Factories after factories are closing and some places are ghost towns and white elephants. Dont forget the Chinese are smarter and sophisticated than compliant Singaporeans and their talent is unlimited. We have so much investments privately and publicly there. The repercussion is unimaginable and our country could be swamped by them and rich and educated FTs.
5) we have invested so heavily in ailing overseas banks and corporates overseas at a "rock bottom" prices for the "long term" and left with the choice of selling Power Seraya and SFI (which are jewels in Singapore) to raise cash or improve our finance. THis is a very sad state as i cant imagine that we have to tap our foreign reserves sooner or later.
6) We have not discounted the political and social or even terrorists lurking around at our door steps. Where is MAS SELAMAT? You think he just relax under a coconut tree> Such dangerous man who can outwit our world class security system, could possibly be inspired by the Mumbai attack and planning for a return in an more organised and intricate manner? We cannot rule this out. It can be a serious threat!
Our government can introduce a string of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate property demand to help the cash rich developers preserve their cash and capital gains but we have to set priority on helping the people, the aged, sick, the national servicemen and true Singaporeans instead of investing, investing, property, property, Casinos and Casinos, F1 and F1 or FT or FT, and always wants to be the best in the world. We dont really need all these. We just hope that there is no nasty surprise to derail everything otherwise the bottom could really be unreachable in the coming years. Not trying to be pessimistic but really we dont know and it looks like a recovery will be a long long long one.
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Recovery from Recession a long, long one
Posted by Concerned Singaporean in the Singapore Property ForumWe can roughly said that there are some events which will likely to derail whatever efforts the world governments have done. The repercussions to the world and small city like Singapore will be very serious:
1) the financial system in the world have been broken so severely that it impairs the US and Europe economy ability to relevage and completely mute the strength of its cyclical recovery. These are major economies and the richest of the richest in the past. THis is very bad for Singapore who is totally dependent on the two sinful casinos and constructional activities to spur economic growth and jobs. Singapore do not have a motherland like HK or Sydney to fall back and we are just compliant citizens and not entreprenuers. We need the government to hold our hands.
2) as more jobs are lost (soon in millions) in major economies, it is a liquidity trap and any fiscal or interest cuts have no effects resulting in fear and people not spending or hoarding cash. More layoffs is coming to Singapore as Singaoreans will be hard hit. Worst in Singapore, people are heavy in assets and as they age and easily "kiasu" they become more conservative, lonely and withdraw, not willing to spend. They will save for fear of ill health (high hospital bills) thanks to our non-welfare state.
3) the US is now a debtor nation and owes the rest of the world more than US$2trillions. the US$ can crash and there is a real risk of a major currency crisis as investors shun dollar based assets resulting in more deflation of assets denominated in US$. Another crisis is now looming as the rise in US$ is too steep like another bubble in the making.
4) Look at China, yes mighty and GDP of 7 to 9 % growth even at this time. But they have to generate 24m jobs every year. It is a very difficult country to manage (nothing compare to managing Singapore) and how you expect a slowdown will bring jobless youth and workers there with no social problems in a billion population country? Factories after factories are closing and some places are ghost towns and white elephants. Dont forget the Chinese are smarter and sophisticated than compliant Singaporeans and their talent is unlimited. We have so much investments privately and publicly there. The repercussion is unimaginable and our country could be swamped by them and rich and educated FTs.
5) we have invested so heavily in ailing overseas banks and corporates overseas at a "rock bottom" prices for the "long term" and left with the choice of selling Power Seraya and SFI (which are jewels in Singapore) to raise cash or improve our finance. THis is a very sad state as i cant imagine that we have to tap our foreign reserves sooner or later.
6) We have not discounted the political and social or even terrorists lurking around at our door steps. Where is MAS SELAMAT? You think he just relax under a coconut tree> Such dangerous man who can outwit our world class security system, could possibly be inspired by the Mumbai attack and planning for a return in an more organised and intricate manner? We cannot rule this out. It can be a serious threat!
Our government can introduce a string of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate property demand to help the cash rich developers preserve their cash and capital gains but we have to set priority on helping the people, the aged, sick, the national servicemen and true Singaporeans instead of investing, investing, property, property, Casinos and Casinos, F1 and F1 or FT or FT, and always wants to be the best in the world. We dont really need all these. We just hope that there is no nasty surprise to derail everything otherwise the bottom could really be unreachable in the coming years. Not trying to be pessimistic but really we dont know and it looks like a recovery will be a long long long one.
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Saturday, December 6, 2008
About this Blog
At the same forum, Manu Bhaskaran, CEO of economic consulting and advisory firm Centennial Asia Advisors, painted a gloomy outlook for the economy, noting that trade financing has been badly affected, with shipping rates falling over 90 per cent from their peak. This would have a significant impact on Singapore's trade-dependent economy, he noted. Monetary and fiscal easing by governments around the world, while appropriate, would take around 12 months to start having positive effects, he said. 'But we need more demand right now,' he added.
In the local context, Mr Bhaskaran pointed out that banks are being extremely cautious about approving loans, and thus foreign investors - even if they are interested in coming into Singapore - might have problems getting the funding they need for projects here. Many large projects have already been postponed, and more are likely to suffer the same fate, which would put further downward pressure on growth. He added that the IMF's forecast of 2 per cent growth for Singapore next year was 'highly optimistic'.
Mr Chua pointed out that up to 60 per cent of the world - China and India being the exceptions - is now in recession, which points to the slowest global growth since the global recession of 1981. He pointed out that in the US, asset values are still dropping, with housing prices set to fall about 33 per cent from their peak before bottoming out. He estimated this would happen by around the end of 2009.
With the sharp cutbacks in spending by Americans as well as Europeans, Asia would inevitably be affected. There would also be downward pressure on some Asian currencies, including the Singapore dollar, he said, which could go to 1.60-1.65 to the US dollar next year.
Extracted from BT
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore's current recession will last to 2009 making it the longest recession ever
THE current recession here will last till at least the middle of 2009, making it Singapore's longest recession ever, according to Chua Hak Bin, Head of Equity Research, Citigroup. Speaking at a forum organised by the Singapore Press Club yesterday, he added however that there could be a few silver linings for Singapore.Shipping rates falling over 90 per cent
At the same forum, Manu Bhaskaran, CEO of economic consulting and advisory firm Centennial Asia Advisors, painted a gloomy outlook for the economy, noting that trade financing has been badly affected, with shipping rates falling over 90 per cent from their peak. This would have a significant impact on Singapore's trade-dependent economy, he noted. Monetary and fiscal easing by governments around the world, while appropriate, would take around 12 months to start having positive effects, he said. 'But we need more demand right now,' he added.
banks are being extremely cautious about approving loans
In the local context, Mr Bhaskaran pointed out that banks are being extremely cautious about approving loans, and thus foreign investors - even if they are interested in coming into Singapore - might have problems getting the funding they need for projects here. Many large projects have already been postponed, and more are likely to suffer the same fate, which would put further downward pressure on growth. He added that the IMF's forecast of 2 per cent growth for Singapore next year was 'highly optimistic'.
60% of the world now in recession
Mr Chua pointed out that up to 60 per cent of the world - China and India being the exceptions - is now in recession, which points to the slowest global growth since the global recession of 1981. He pointed out that in the US, asset values are still dropping, with housing prices set to fall about 33 per cent from their peak before bottoming out. He estimated this would happen by around the end of 2009.
Downward pressure on some Asian currencies
With the sharp cutbacks in spending by Americans as well as Europeans, Asia would inevitably be affected. There would also be downward pressure on some Asian currencies, including the Singapore dollar, he said, which could go to 1.60-1.65 to the US dollar next year.
Extracted from BT
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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