Saturday, February 7, 2009

About this Blog

Can government resilient package save the property market?

"I am not a bull and want overpriced property prices in singapore to come to some sense. Unfortunately, prices will possibly rise because our pragmatic Government will get involved in helping whatever companies to obtain financing by taking a major amount of risk on their defaults.

Companies big or small or medium will rush in to get easy credit nowadays up to 4 years from S$5m to S$50m on the pretext of working capital needs and started to use this spare cash to speculate in shares and properties. The resilient packages have alot of loopholes and it is easy to exploit.

The abuse is starting and how you expect the bank or government going to control. Then the government has waived and help developers to delay their launching of projects by extension of construction dates and postpone land sales indefinitely.

You see all these are calculated to help the developers, the rich and vested people. We have the public funds and reserves to help them.

Then the developers will given a freehand to start to blow the horn about singapore growing into a GLOBAL CITY, Jurong, Kallang and Paya Lebar regional centres and MRTs, IRs, F1 and a Swiss standard of living in the making. Singaporeans all easily buy these and rush and drive property prices up and up.

You see it is all planned.

So if you want to speculate or buy, go go at your timing. But why when it is already overpriced and so artificial. If it goes up, it is not for the average, it is for the rich and speculators. "

"It is a scary situation because there are billions available for speculation now and ready to be abused. it is going to be messy, deceptive, pretentious, greed and fear of losing out . Banks are swarmed with thousands and thousands of applications to process. More and more such loans are released into the system and the companies are rushing in to use these companies to speculate. Companies even Ok are pretending to be wanting to retrench and expand. They are taking advantage of the RESILIENT PACKAGES to speculate.
Good news for developers and speculators!!!!! Sorry bears! "

"You think our govt is stupid or what? or are you stupid? You think our govt will lend money for companies to speculate? They only lend to companies with sound business lah!! Sorry bulls! Property crashing liao!!!! "

"I am RICH, BASTARD i am very illiquid. DAMN if I can't sell my property at 2008 price and over time when I lost my holding power, I sure beome poor SHIT. "

"I don't think the govt resilient package will cause property price to rise. It may help developers to delay launches but ultimately, developers must sell properties to be in business. With jobless rate climbing and household income dropping, demand will shrink, esp for private property. How long can the developers hold on to their unsold properties? How long can the speculators hold on? Even if economic recovery comes by the end of 2009, it will be slow. Household income will take a long time to catch up with sky-high property price. So the way I see it, either developers stop selling properties and be out of business for a long time or lower their prices to a more affordable level to move sale. The days of wild speculation using easy credits from the banks are over!!! So what's there to sustain the current high price even if govt gives developers more time? It'll take years for household income to catch up with current high property price and can the developers wait for years?"

Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum

May also want to read:
99 Leasehold Property: Calculation of Depreciation Rate based on Singapore Land Authority Data
Spore Property History 1960-2008
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resale Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart


Leroy said...

Economic fundamentals still key. Govt can only do so much... read below... The second tsunami wave of US subprime problem is coming....



Saturday, 07 February 2009

US aid for homeowners not workingMore than half of struggling property owners in the US who have been given a break with their mortgages quickly end up in trouble again, a growing problem that is hampering a recovery in the real estate industry, it is claimed.

Research from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency shows that more than 50% of property owners who get help end up missing at least one payment within six months.

The high default rate on reworked mortgages is complicating efforts to address a property crisis that is already among the worst on record. It has sent government and industry officials scrambling to find new fixes as President Obama's administration pledges to spend $50 billion to $100 billion to help property owners.

The high default rate is an indication of severe problems according to John Dugan, comptroller of the currency, whose office regulates some mortgage lenders. It is not just that the number is high, but that it keeps getting worse each month,' he said.

'It is troubling to see a large number aren't staying current and we don't know why,' said Faith Schwartz, executive director of Hope Now, an alliance of lenders.

Most modifications aimed at preventing foreclosure and they succeed in the short term. But experts are pointing out that in the long term this is not the case.

According to a Credit Suisse report on subprime loans, those that were modified by lowering the interest rate or the principal balance owed were the least likely to become delinquent again.

Modifications in which lenders simply gave homeowners time to catch up but raised monthly payments to cover missed amounts and late fees, or lowered interest rates for a time but then restored the rates to their previous level, were the least successful.

Alan White, an assistant law professor at Valparaiso University, has found that even with property prices dropping rapidly, lenders have been reluctant to lower the borrower's principal. Instead, the average modification adds $10,000 to the main amount owed.

This has contributed to a higher re-default rate, White said. 'Negative equity is the biggest predictor of re-default. If you have equity, you can always sell your house and you get some money and get a fresh start. They are less motivated to struggle to make payments if they are underwater on their house,' he added.

Even with the government's largest foreclosure programme, known as Hope for Homeowners, about 40% of homeowners are expected to fall behind on payments again.

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The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.

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