Showing posts with label 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - sept. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - sept. Show all posts
Monday, September 29, 2008
About this Blog
"With land costing easily between $250 & $350 psf coupled with high, construction costs, developers' break-even cost is at least $700psf. Livia's average price of $650psf is definitely a steal" Jack Chua, President, ERA; Peter Ow, Executive Director, Knight Frank
Implicit in this sort of sale pitch is that with the soaring construction costs, property price must inevitably rise. To this, we've the responses of property sellers and buyers in the Singapore Property Forum:
Seller:
"yes it is absolutely true that land price, construction costs, labour costs, etc have all gone up which means developers will not be able to sell at less than their cost, that will be plain stupid and not in the interest of shareholders. knowing that demand now is weak, deveopers will not launch aggressively as they are not stupid."
Buyer:
"it is plain stupid to be stuck with a big stack of hot potatoes and paying interests and affecting cashflow which is definitely not in the interest of the shareholders. They are not stupid, but they miscalculated.
How many people stuck with hot potatoes are stupid? They are just greedy and miscalculated."
Another Buyer:
"since when are developers so generous to sell cheap just because land and construction are cheap?... in 1996 (property peak) construction cost is definitely cheaper than today but price was high until people go bankrupt ... developers will sell high high if buyers are suckers enough to pay high high price... if nobody is willing to pay or just cannot find bank loan to pay for high high price, then nobody buys ... then developers will have to sell at price people can pay or willing to pay .. so dont keep on talking about construction cost going up ... only stupid people believe you "
Seller:
"so be careful when you read about comments by bearish people. just think about it, if they are so bearish they would have sold their own homes and renting now. do they do that? NO. these people already own their own property and want to buy a second property and hence they go around shouting for prices to go down. they use the US credit crisis as reasons for prices to go down."
Buyer:
"There is no point in selling and renting now as we are not property speculators. We do not shout for prices to drop and to buy cheap. It is to tell people not to be SUCKERED to buy expensive as what you wanted them to do."
Seller:
"so if you own a home and can afford your mortgage there is no need to be afraid. as long as you are not overleveraged and live within your means, you should do ok."
Buyer:
"Unfortunately a lot of people are over-leveraged and greedy. For these people, what advice do you have? Isn't it the same advice as bears? Be prudent, don't over-leverage or just sell if you have a chance?....If you have made a mistake and then you try to cover it up (by being in self-denial or telling others that market will continue to go up) you have made another mistake."
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Livia Condominium @ Pasir Ris 160 units sold during Launch
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Higher Construction Costs means Property Price must rise ?
There's this Ad in Straits Times (13 Sept 2008) on Livia Condominium for Sale:"With land costing easily between $250 & $350 psf coupled with high, construction costs, developers' break-even cost is at least $700psf. Livia's average price of $650psf is definitely a steal" Jack Chua, President, ERA; Peter Ow, Executive Director, Knight Frank
Implicit in this sort of sale pitch is that with the soaring construction costs, property price must inevitably rise. To this, we've the responses of property sellers and buyers in the Singapore Property Forum:
Seller:
"yes it is absolutely true that land price, construction costs, labour costs, etc have all gone up which means developers will not be able to sell at less than their cost, that will be plain stupid and not in the interest of shareholders. knowing that demand now is weak, deveopers will not launch aggressively as they are not stupid."
Buyer:
"it is plain stupid to be stuck with a big stack of hot potatoes and paying interests and affecting cashflow which is definitely not in the interest of the shareholders. They are not stupid, but they miscalculated.
How many people stuck with hot potatoes are stupid? They are just greedy and miscalculated."
Another Buyer:
"since when are developers so generous to sell cheap just because land and construction are cheap?... in 1996 (property peak) construction cost is definitely cheaper than today but price was high until people go bankrupt ... developers will sell high high if buyers are suckers enough to pay high high price... if nobody is willing to pay or just cannot find bank loan to pay for high high price, then nobody buys ... then developers will have to sell at price people can pay or willing to pay .. so dont keep on talking about construction cost going up ... only stupid people believe you "
Seller:
"so be careful when you read about comments by bearish people. just think about it, if they are so bearish they would have sold their own homes and renting now. do they do that? NO. these people already own their own property and want to buy a second property and hence they go around shouting for prices to go down. they use the US credit crisis as reasons for prices to go down."
Buyer:
"There is no point in selling and renting now as we are not property speculators. We do not shout for prices to drop and to buy cheap. It is to tell people not to be SUCKERED to buy expensive as what you wanted them to do."
Seller:
"so if you own a home and can afford your mortgage there is no need to be afraid. as long as you are not overleveraged and live within your means, you should do ok."
Buyer:
"Unfortunately a lot of people are over-leveraged and greedy. For these people, what advice do you have? Isn't it the same advice as bears? Be prudent, don't over-leverage or just sell if you have a chance?....If you have made a mistake and then you try to cover it up (by being in self-denial or telling others that market will continue to go up) you have made another mistake."
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Livia Condominium @ Pasir Ris 160 units sold during Launch
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Saturday, September 27, 2008
About this Blog
Business Times - 25 Sep 2008 on the meltdown of the China property market:
"After months of steely resistance, Chinese property developers have finally thrown in the towel and slashed prices as sales fall. Whether the move succeeds in putting a floor under the market will help determine the fate of the economy over the coming year, especially because China needs to spur domestic demand to counter weakening exports as the global credit crunch intensifies."
On the "steely resistance" put up by developers in the initial stage of the property downturn, forumers at the Singapore Property Forum have these views to share with property buyers still waiting on the sideline:
ann:
"This pattern is observed in many countries. Price booms, but after market changes, bust is delayed whilst sellers remain in denial or act tough. All the while, sales volumes are threadbare. Finally, they give up and lower prices. Same thing here in Singapore. Thankfully, most buyers/upgraders/investors can wait. They can wait indefinitely. All the while, the supply glut /TOPs grows closer and closer. Why buy now when you can buy later for less? China carried a myth that prices could not fall because of rapid growth, Olympics etc. What myths do we carry? Yes, IR, F1, YOG etc. "
aitan:
"Agreed with you, Ann. Your boom to bust cycle pattern is part and parcel of this game. Only problem is our bulls in this forum thread refuse to understand the rule of the game and are trying their very best to hold the market, as if they can, by shouting and screaming at all the bears. They refused to admit that our mythology of F1, IRs, YOG and Global City presentation had already been factored in during the last Bull run that ended last year. Hope when they finally realize the rule of the game, they can survive with enough seed money to play the next bust to boom game. "
anonymous:
"Agree with both of you.
The longer the bulls wait, the louder the crash. Because when they finally realise that nobody is buying all those hypes of F1, IRs, YOG and Global City; it'll be too late. They'll find themselves having to live with the reality of the economic downturn - low rental yield if they're lucky to find a tenant at all, higher mortgage rate and some will face downright problem with even securing a bank loan, lower bonuses or even pay freeze if not retrenchment ... by which time most buyers have already vanished !!!
The long term outlook of Singapore is not as rosy as all the media would like us believe. Both US presidential candidates have vowed to bring back jobs to America. It's going to be a world threatened by protectionism. That can spell doom for an exporter like Singapore. China and India are getting most of the foreign capital inflow with the attraction of their huge domestic market. So how do we compete ? Until we figure out a workable strategy, at the very least, we'll have to become cheaper or be squeezed out of the global market."
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Buying Advice: Lesson from Boom-Bust Property Cycles of the World
While Singapore property buyers are wondering why property prices in Singapore haven't fallen yet, property prices have already been falling all over the world. The Global Property Guide, a property research group, reported that for the first half of year 2008, property prices fell in 21 of the 33 countries. We have been getting similar gloomy news about the China property market too.Business Times - 25 Sep 2008 on the meltdown of the China property market:
"After months of steely resistance, Chinese property developers have finally thrown in the towel and slashed prices as sales fall. Whether the move succeeds in putting a floor under the market will help determine the fate of the economy over the coming year, especially because China needs to spur domestic demand to counter weakening exports as the global credit crunch intensifies."
On the "steely resistance" put up by developers in the initial stage of the property downturn, forumers at the Singapore Property Forum have these views to share with property buyers still waiting on the sideline:
ann:
"This pattern is observed in many countries. Price booms, but after market changes, bust is delayed whilst sellers remain in denial or act tough. All the while, sales volumes are threadbare. Finally, they give up and lower prices. Same thing here in Singapore. Thankfully, most buyers/upgraders/investors can wait. They can wait indefinitely. All the while, the supply glut /TOPs grows closer and closer. Why buy now when you can buy later for less? China carried a myth that prices could not fall because of rapid growth, Olympics etc. What myths do we carry? Yes, IR, F1, YOG etc. "
aitan:
"Agreed with you, Ann. Your boom to bust cycle pattern is part and parcel of this game. Only problem is our bulls in this forum thread refuse to understand the rule of the game and are trying their very best to hold the market, as if they can, by shouting and screaming at all the bears. They refused to admit that our mythology of F1, IRs, YOG and Global City presentation had already been factored in during the last Bull run that ended last year. Hope when they finally realize the rule of the game, they can survive with enough seed money to play the next bust to boom game. "
anonymous:
"Agree with both of you.
The longer the bulls wait, the louder the crash. Because when they finally realise that nobody is buying all those hypes of F1, IRs, YOG and Global City; it'll be too late. They'll find themselves having to live with the reality of the economic downturn - low rental yield if they're lucky to find a tenant at all, higher mortgage rate and some will face downright problem with even securing a bank loan, lower bonuses or even pay freeze if not retrenchment ... by which time most buyers have already vanished !!!
The long term outlook of Singapore is not as rosy as all the media would like us believe. Both US presidential candidates have vowed to bring back jobs to America. It's going to be a world threatened by protectionism. That can spell doom for an exporter like Singapore. China and India are getting most of the foreign capital inflow with the attraction of their huge domestic market. So how do we compete ? Until we figure out a workable strategy, at the very least, we'll have to become cheaper or be squeezed out of the global market."
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Friday, September 19, 2008
About this Blog
"Nowadays not many investment options. FD - rates too low Stocks - going down all the way. Money market and structured product - can you trust them? Commodities - going down because hedge funds are selling. So property is best - noone can short your physical property, can collect rent and price stable and slowly going up Spore's property is best long term investment."
"Buying property NOW is the fastest way to commit suicide."
"you are out of touch...dont buy expensive new properties. look for cheap RESALE properties and buy only if you can afford it... shares and structured products - suicide if you are not financially intelligent"
"Wrong! New property price go down, resale property also go down. Just wait for the Great Singapore Sale. Cheap old private properties will get even cheaper. Right! Stay away from financial and structured stocks. Also stay away from property stocks. Wait for another fear-grip day like yesterday to buy stocks. Fact: Good stocks always go up within 5 yrs and always go up faster than property price.
Diversify. Don't always property, property.. Singapore private property makes lousy investment .. most are 99LH consumption good, not investment... Keep your HDB flat for long term property investment is a wiser and lower risk choice. "
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Investment is Best Long Term Investment?
The following is a forum exchange on property investment as the best long term investment:"Nowadays not many investment options. FD - rates too low Stocks - going down all the way. Money market and structured product - can you trust them? Commodities - going down because hedge funds are selling. So property is best - noone can short your physical property, can collect rent and price stable and slowly going up Spore's property is best long term investment."
"Buying property NOW is the fastest way to commit suicide."
"you are out of touch...dont buy expensive new properties. look for cheap RESALE properties and buy only if you can afford it... shares and structured products - suicide if you are not financially intelligent"
"Wrong! New property price go down, resale property also go down. Just wait for the Great Singapore Sale. Cheap old private properties will get even cheaper. Right! Stay away from financial and structured stocks. Also stay away from property stocks. Wait for another fear-grip day like yesterday to buy stocks. Fact: Good stocks always go up within 5 yrs and always go up faster than property price.
Diversify. Don't always property, property.. Singapore private property makes lousy investment .. most are 99LH consumption good, not investment... Keep your HDB flat for long term property investment is a wiser and lower risk choice. "
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Thursday, September 18, 2008
About this Blog
The following forum exchanges on property investment vs buying stocks in the light of the stock market crash today is extracted from the Singapore Property Market:
"smart investors are now buying property as property price is more stable and likely to rise ..now they are collecting rentals and not afraid their property will be SHORTED cos share you can short but physical property you cant short"
"This is a dumbest investor. this is the time to buy stocks and sell properties. So you bought property this year .. condemned already"
"SHARES???!!!!!!! DONT BE STUPID LAH. NOW NO COMPANY IS SAFE. NO GUARANTEE COMPANY WONT GO BANKRUPT. BLUE CHIPS LIKE AIG, LEHMAN SHARES ALL DROP TO ZERO AND ALMOST ZERO. YOU ARE DUMP. SHARES CAN GO DOWN EVEN FURTHER. PROPERTY - YES PRICE CAN GO DOWN BUT NOT MUCH. AND I STILL COLLECT RENT!!!!!!!! "
"BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS GREEDY (some ppl are still greedy about property) .. BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS FEARFUL (most ppl are now fearful about stocks, be selective and you will reap handsome profits)"
"property prices will remain strong. stocks very risky.. yes i am surprised even US blue chips can go bankrupt"
"Ya, please help the developers by buying up the properties and be the suckers, property prices will remain strong, yeah right! "
Capitaland 3.750 -0.210
CITYDEV 8.450 -0.410
GuocoLand 1.710 -0.150
Ho Bee 0.585 -0.025
KepLand 3.060 -0.130
SCGlobal 0.600 -0.010
Wing Tai 1.120 -0.030
"shares got shorted down but physical property can't be shorted .. therefore it makes sense for property to be the most superior investment asset - you get to enjoy good rental cashflow without much worry. unlike shares dividends are not guaranteed as company can go bankrupt any time. any fall in property prices in spore (not US as US property prices will remain low for many years) will rebound as spore economy will grow higher with the opening of two mega global IRs "
"short sighted!! property will crash worse than stocks ... just 40% off $1M and you'd lose $400K, $1M then would be enough to buy two properties instead of one ... "
May also want to read:
Warren Buffet Investment Tips
Bill Gross Investment Tip on preserving your capital for the next bull run
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Stock Market Crash: BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL.
"ST Index 2,341.40 -77.89 Volume 140.7 M Gainers/Losers 32 / 245 SGX 5.850 -0.100. Not looking good ..... "The following forum exchanges on property investment vs buying stocks in the light of the stock market crash today is extracted from the Singapore Property Market:
"smart investors are now buying property as property price is more stable and likely to rise ..now they are collecting rentals and not afraid their property will be SHORTED cos share you can short but physical property you cant short"
"This is a dumbest investor. this is the time to buy stocks and sell properties. So you bought property this year .. condemned already"
"SHARES???!!!!!!! DONT BE STUPID LAH. NOW NO COMPANY IS SAFE. NO GUARANTEE COMPANY WONT GO BANKRUPT. BLUE CHIPS LIKE AIG, LEHMAN SHARES ALL DROP TO ZERO AND ALMOST ZERO. YOU ARE DUMP. SHARES CAN GO DOWN EVEN FURTHER. PROPERTY - YES PRICE CAN GO DOWN BUT NOT MUCH. AND I STILL COLLECT RENT!!!!!!!! "
"BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS GREEDY (some ppl are still greedy about property) .. BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS FEARFUL (most ppl are now fearful about stocks, be selective and you will reap handsome profits)"
"property prices will remain strong. stocks very risky.. yes i am surprised even US blue chips can go bankrupt"
"Ya, please help the developers by buying up the properties and be the suckers, property prices will remain strong, yeah right! "
Capitaland 3.750 -0.210
CITYDEV 8.450 -0.410
GuocoLand 1.710 -0.150
Ho Bee 0.585 -0.025
KepLand 3.060 -0.130
SCGlobal 0.600 -0.010
Wing Tai 1.120 -0.030
"shares got shorted down but physical property can't be shorted .. therefore it makes sense for property to be the most superior investment asset - you get to enjoy good rental cashflow without much worry. unlike shares dividends are not guaranteed as company can go bankrupt any time. any fall in property prices in spore (not US as US property prices will remain low for many years) will rebound as spore economy will grow higher with the opening of two mega global IRs "
"short sighted!! property will crash worse than stocks ... just 40% off $1M and you'd lose $400K, $1M then would be enough to buy two properties instead of one ... "
May also want to read:
Warren Buffet Investment Tips
Bill Gross Investment Tip on preserving your capital for the next bull run
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
About this Blog
"It is the median property price that will go up steadily with economic growth in the long run. But peak price, not necessarily, cos the subsequent peak/s maybe lower than the previous one .. Plus you have to add your mortgage cost and consider time value of money. E.g. if you bought a property in 1996 peak, the value of your property today is most likely still below the price you bought in 1996 in absolute term. Add your mortgage interest, the actual amt you'd have paid may be double. If you sell it now, it probably fetches about 70% of the price you paid in 1996, but that 70% is worthed still today than 1996 given the high inflation now, that's the time-value of money has declined. So buying at a property peak could see your asset condemned to a life sentence of being a negative asset."
(The graph below shows the private property price index from 1990 -2008, with an "imaginary" graph drawn in red to represent the trend of the median price)
From the graph above,
"You will see that the 2000 peak was below the 1996 peak, so that supports my proposition that peak price may not necessary be higher than the previous one. The 1996 peak is a sharp, anomalous spike. Here's the warning: The current developer's price is well-above this spike. Try drawing a graph for the median price, superimposed on this graph, you'd see that the current price level is destined to moderate. Btw, we are in another financial crisis now. According to economists and bankers, it is the worst in a century. So it's definitely worse than the Asian Financial Crisis. We may only be at the beginning of it. "
Posted by Anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resales Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Property Investment Advice: Property Price always go up in the long term?
Here is an enlightening look at this widely established wisdom:"It is the median property price that will go up steadily with economic growth in the long run. But peak price, not necessarily, cos the subsequent peak/s maybe lower than the previous one .. Plus you have to add your mortgage cost and consider time value of money. E.g. if you bought a property in 1996 peak, the value of your property today is most likely still below the price you bought in 1996 in absolute term. Add your mortgage interest, the actual amt you'd have paid may be double. If you sell it now, it probably fetches about 70% of the price you paid in 1996, but that 70% is worthed still today than 1996 given the high inflation now, that's the time-value of money has declined. So buying at a property peak could see your asset condemned to a life sentence of being a negative asset."
(The graph below shows the private property price index from 1990 -2008, with an "imaginary" graph drawn in red to represent the trend of the median price)
From the graph above,
"You will see that the 2000 peak was below the 1996 peak, so that supports my proposition that peak price may not necessary be higher than the previous one. The 1996 peak is a sharp, anomalous spike. Here's the warning: The current developer's price is well-above this spike. Try drawing a graph for the median price, superimposed on this graph, you'd see that the current price level is destined to moderate. Btw, we are in another financial crisis now. According to economists and bankers, it is the worst in a century. So it's definitely worse than the Asian Financial Crisis. We may only be at the beginning of it. "
Posted by Anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resales Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Monday, September 15, 2008
About this Blog
Home buyer wrote:
Dear Forumers,
Just sharing a reality. I have recently had an offer of $820k accepted for a 999-yr leasehold condo along upper Bukit Timah Road. That works out to be abt $740psf.
The initial asking price for the unit is $795psf. Some of the units are even asking for $850psf and above. Good luck to them.
I actually made 3 offers to different units in the project and all of a sudden, all 3 came back on the same day. I guess the owners must have just received the notification of TOP from the developer and is panicking to get their loans approved.
My point is, prices are slowly, but surely coming down. I would not have committed on the unit if I was not shopping for a home to stay in the vincinity due to vested interest.
I would rather wait till next year.
So dear bulls aka. property agents in this forum, please provide facts when you are trying to push across a message.
Do not flood this forum with contruction costs, MM's vision of the golden years, IR dream, etc.......
The harder one tries to wipe away an ink smudge, the worse it gets.....
Home Owner replied:
It's truely generous of you to tell us your experience and honest view of the market outlook, despite just having bought a unit yourself. I'm a home owner along the same district too and I share your view. To say that property price is moderating is not only being just downright honest but as a home owner with no intention to sell my home, I actually welcome the moderation, rather than see the price get chased up to the sky by speculators and then crash sharply. The only people who will go on talking up the market are the property agents and the desperate hot potatoe sellers which are the so called "bulls" here.
Anonymous wrote:
It's refreshing to hear from you guys. I must say the seller of the Upper Bukit Timah unit is a fortunate fellow in times like this, even thoough he has been quick to seize the scant opportunities in a falling market. Anyway, I have seen expectations drop by 10% in areas like Thomson and Bishan too.
In the end, it all boils down to incomes. It doesn't matter if lots of FT's flood the market but if their incomes don't match, prices cannot be sustained. And FT's are even more averse to taking heavy mortgages.
Posted by anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
A Home-Buyer and Home-Owner honest view of the private property market outlook
The following forum discussion provides a candid view of the outlook of the Singapore private property market from the perspective of a home buyer who has recently bought his home; and a home-owner who, like many other home-owners, has no intention of selling his home.Home buyer wrote:
Dear Forumers,
Just sharing a reality. I have recently had an offer of $820k accepted for a 999-yr leasehold condo along upper Bukit Timah Road. That works out to be abt $740psf.
The initial asking price for the unit is $795psf. Some of the units are even asking for $850psf and above. Good luck to them.
I actually made 3 offers to different units in the project and all of a sudden, all 3 came back on the same day. I guess the owners must have just received the notification of TOP from the developer and is panicking to get their loans approved.
My point is, prices are slowly, but surely coming down. I would not have committed on the unit if I was not shopping for a home to stay in the vincinity due to vested interest.
I would rather wait till next year.
So dear bulls aka. property agents in this forum, please provide facts when you are trying to push across a message.
Do not flood this forum with contruction costs, MM's vision of the golden years, IR dream, etc.......
The harder one tries to wipe away an ink smudge, the worse it gets.....
Home Owner replied:
It's truely generous of you to tell us your experience and honest view of the market outlook, despite just having bought a unit yourself. I'm a home owner along the same district too and I share your view. To say that property price is moderating is not only being just downright honest but as a home owner with no intention to sell my home, I actually welcome the moderation, rather than see the price get chased up to the sky by speculators and then crash sharply. The only people who will go on talking up the market are the property agents and the desperate hot potatoe sellers which are the so called "bulls" here.
Anonymous wrote:
It's refreshing to hear from you guys. I must say the seller of the Upper Bukit Timah unit is a fortunate fellow in times like this, even thoough he has been quick to seize the scant opportunities in a falling market. Anyway, I have seen expectations drop by 10% in areas like Thomson and Bishan too.
In the end, it all boils down to incomes. It doesn't matter if lots of FT's flood the market but if their incomes don't match, prices cannot be sustained. And FT's are even more averse to taking heavy mortgages.
Posted by anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
About this Blog
Reality returns to Singapore Property Market...
In a market severely distorted by speculation, people buy with over-optimism that their property 'll make money, and less thought is put into whether the property is really worthed that much.
Take for example the enbloc fever. Old HUDC price soared by as much as 80% in a year because people were buying the "enbloc potential". Now that most enbloc potential has vanished, people look at the old and run down HUDC and ask how could it be worthed more than a million.
Now that reality has returned to the market, home buyers will think whether they want to sacrifice so much of their lifestyle just for a roof over their heads. Investors will make their calculations in terms of rental return and the risks of property investment as compared to their other investments.
Displaced enbloc sellers looking for replacement homes may keep the market going for a little longer, but the market will be mostly dominated by rational thinking rather than promises of a rosy dream.
The cooling market has exposed the weaknesses of the many arguments for the continuous climb in property price, like the simplistic view that IRs will bring so many people and therefore so many more housing uints will be needed. People begin to see the reality that it's not just the number of people who will be coming to Singapore but the sort of spending power these people have will eventually determine the sustainable property price.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Reality returns to Singapore Property Market 2008
This happened in 1998...will it happen again?Reality returns to Singapore Property Market...
In a market severely distorted by speculation, people buy with over-optimism that their property 'll make money, and less thought is put into whether the property is really worthed that much.
Take for example the enbloc fever. Old HUDC price soared by as much as 80% in a year because people were buying the "enbloc potential". Now that most enbloc potential has vanished, people look at the old and run down HUDC and ask how could it be worthed more than a million.
Now that reality has returned to the market, home buyers will think whether they want to sacrifice so much of their lifestyle just for a roof over their heads. Investors will make their calculations in terms of rental return and the risks of property investment as compared to their other investments.
Displaced enbloc sellers looking for replacement homes may keep the market going for a little longer, but the market will be mostly dominated by rational thinking rather than promises of a rosy dream.
The cooling market has exposed the weaknesses of the many arguments for the continuous climb in property price, like the simplistic view that IRs will bring so many people and therefore so many more housing uints will be needed. People begin to see the reality that it's not just the number of people who will be coming to Singapore but the sort of spending power these people have will eventually determine the sustainable property price.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Friday, September 12, 2008
About this Blog
anonymous 1 wrote:
to all forumers here
i am concerned of some people who speculate with their home. they sold off their home hoping to buy back later cheaper. this is stupid and dangerous. your home is precious. do not speculate. now many who sold off earlier in 2006 hoping the market to go down are panicking because prices are not falling instead have risen since then. property prices will not go down instead are going up. pls think. dont be stupid.
anonymous 2 wrote:
I agree that it's too speculative to sell your home hoping for a gain but it's equally speculative to say that price will go up and start buying in. The best thing to do is stay put. Don't sell, if you don't have to sell unless you forsee cash flow problem. Don't buy if you don't have to buy because the economic downturn is going to be prolonged and the impact can be severe...
Ann wrote
The problem is that for many of us, we only do own one property, and that property is our home. That's not something you want to gamble with. Don't gamble with what you cannot afford to lose.
If you're a HOME buyer, you may have a stronger reason to commit such a large sum of money. (Even then, timing is important).
But if you're an INVESTOR/speculator, unless you have a SPARE million dollars that YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, then I think don't its wise to play the property GAME, ESPECIALLY AT THIS POINT soon after prices have just shot up 50%-100% in 2 years, are starting to retrace, at the brink of a global recession/slowdown, and with the excesses (sales and building) of 2007 coming onstream in 1-2 yrs.
You can still invest in property via REITs, at a level that you can afford. Don't bet your life, you could lose it.
anonymous 4 wrote:
YES SOME ARE IRRESPONSIBLE ... SELL THEIR HOMES AND THEN APPLY FOR HDB RENTAL FLAT!!!!!!!!!!!!
THESE PEOPLE ARE TAKING AWAY PRECIOUS RESOURCES AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY POOR AND DESTITUTE WHO REALLY NEED THE RENTAL FLATS ...
Anonymous 5 wrote:
Good advice. Point taken.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Investment Advice: Only Invest with money you can afford to lose
The following forum exchanges is extracted from the Singapore Property Forumanonymous 1 wrote:
to all forumers here
i am concerned of some people who speculate with their home. they sold off their home hoping to buy back later cheaper. this is stupid and dangerous. your home is precious. do not speculate. now many who sold off earlier in 2006 hoping the market to go down are panicking because prices are not falling instead have risen since then. property prices will not go down instead are going up. pls think. dont be stupid.
anonymous 2 wrote:
I agree that it's too speculative to sell your home hoping for a gain but it's equally speculative to say that price will go up and start buying in. The best thing to do is stay put. Don't sell, if you don't have to sell unless you forsee cash flow problem. Don't buy if you don't have to buy because the economic downturn is going to be prolonged and the impact can be severe...
Ann wrote
The problem is that for many of us, we only do own one property, and that property is our home. That's not something you want to gamble with. Don't gamble with what you cannot afford to lose.
If you're a HOME buyer, you may have a stronger reason to commit such a large sum of money. (Even then, timing is important).
But if you're an INVESTOR/speculator, unless you have a SPARE million dollars that YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, then I think don't its wise to play the property GAME, ESPECIALLY AT THIS POINT soon after prices have just shot up 50%-100% in 2 years, are starting to retrace, at the brink of a global recession/slowdown, and with the excesses (sales and building) of 2007 coming onstream in 1-2 yrs.
You can still invest in property via REITs, at a level that you can afford. Don't bet your life, you could lose it.
anonymous 4 wrote:
YES SOME ARE IRRESPONSIBLE ... SELL THEIR HOMES AND THEN APPLY FOR HDB RENTAL FLAT!!!!!!!!!!!!
THESE PEOPLE ARE TAKING AWAY PRECIOUS RESOURCES AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY POOR AND DESTITUTE WHO REALLY NEED THE RENTAL FLATS ...
Anonymous 5 wrote:
Good advice. Point taken.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
Money can be seen as a surrogate of energy, so the principle of conservation of energy applies to wealth/debt.
US has been using more money than it actually earns (boom). This has been going on for years. But all that debt doesn't disappear. It merely gets hidden. Sooner or later, the equations have to balance (bust).
Because wealth like energy doesn't come from nothing, all that debt cannot just disappear. What the US government is doing now is simply redistributing that debt around, first from the bank to Fannie/Freddie, then the US treasury, then the US dollar, and hence to all who own US dollars, including Asia.
Posted by Ann in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Economic Outlook 2008: US Exporting Subprime Problem to the World
I may be no expert in economics, but one thing I do know, there is a universal law of conservation of energy.Money can be seen as a surrogate of energy, so the principle of conservation of energy applies to wealth/debt.
US has been using more money than it actually earns (boom). This has been going on for years. But all that debt doesn't disappear. It merely gets hidden. Sooner or later, the equations have to balance (bust).
Because wealth like energy doesn't come from nothing, all that debt cannot just disappear. What the US government is doing now is simply redistributing that debt around, first from the bank to Fannie/Freddie, then the US treasury, then the US dollar, and hence to all who own US dollars, including Asia.
Posted by Ann in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
About this Blog
Posted in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Property Market laden with too much debt
Property is "bad" space for investment because there is a lot of debt in it - built up from Deferred Payment Scheme, speculation and low interest rates.Posted in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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