Thursday, November 27, 2008
Developers want sales, Drop the Price
"There, official slap in the face for REDAS. Good riddance to their hubris. See what $2 COE has done for cars? You want sales, drop prices. "; was Ann's straight-forward response to the following news report (extracted from the Singapore Property Forum) :Property market to soften
PROPERTY prices are set to soften and demand will weaken as the Singapore economy slows down, Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan said on Wednesday evening. Private housing prices have declined by 2.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year, and further price movements will 'depend on the severity of the economic slowdown', he added. Speaking at the 49th anniversary dinner of the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (REDAS) at the Shangri-La Hotel, Mr Mah said: 'Going forward, price movements will depend on the...ability of the industry to make adjustments in response to the changes in economic conditions.' The good news is that home-ownership rate is high in Singapore - at more than 90 per cent - and the government has an important role in ensuring the long-term stability and smooth functioning of the property market, he said. Among the measures it should take, he said, is to guard against 'irrational market behaviour such as excessive speculation that is not in sync with economic fundamentals.' But there are limits to what the government can do. The government cannot, for example, dictate to banks that they should extend loans to companies or individuals with weak financial standing. It also cannot work against market forces and try to prop up property prices artificially. Mr Mah explained: 'Such efforts are not sustainable and will not be beneficial to the health of the property market in the long-run. Any measure seen to be knee-jerk or excessive might even weigh market sentiment down further. 'It is in our interest to ensure that the property prices move in line with economic fundamentals, as it affects home ownership, asset values, retirement savings and other sectors of the economy.'
The situation is so obvious that the govt has never felt the need to say it. The speech is probably in response to the recent calls to prop up prices, and of course, it's a big NO because the fundamentals reveal a big property bubble. And bubbles have to burst before the economy can move ahead. The high housing cost makes Singapore business uncompetitive and the govt worries that FT are leaving. (Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum)
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
3
comments
Labels: 0.3 Property News Analysis Nov 2008, 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - nov
Singapore Property Market Outlook in a Nutshell
SUMMARY:GDP down
Manufacturing down
Exports down
Tourism down
Hotels down
Jobs lost
Bonuses cut
FTs going home
Debts rising
Buyers not buying
Rents falling
Housing prices falling
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
0
comments
Monday, November 17, 2008
PM Lee: Singapore in recession .. expect a U-shaped recovery with a fat U
Forum discussion extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:"Just read in today Straits Times "Surge in layoffs expected" and numbers likely to jump beyond the peak suffered during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. About 30,000 jobs were lost then... This spells doom for Singapore private property market, most people will go for HDB be it for newly weds or down grading, it's a safer choice."
"Singapore has yet to feel the full force of the ongoing crisis but there are already signs that it would be ugly and long—drawn. Apart from sharp dips in export figures, job cuts have already hit the manufacturing, finance and banking sectors. "
"With unemployment expected to rise, Singaporeans are bracing themselves for more bad news on the job front... Be prepared for the worst don't commit to those overpriced condo."
"Agreed .....save for a rainy day buying HDB is a safer choice. "
"Agree .. PM just said this recession is going to be a fat-U recession ... it's haunting"
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
1 comments
Labels: 0.3 Property News Analysis Nov 2008, 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - nov
Monday, November 10, 2008
MM Lee: Property Price will continue to rise in the long term
In response to the news reportby CNA 9 Nov 2008, "MM Lee believes property values will continue to rise in long term"; forumers in the Singapore Property Forum wrote:"Here are the good words of our own MM Lee whom some Bears had reminded us that property will go down in cyclical..seems like MM Lee is very optimistic of Singapore property market. And the fact that the government is controlling supply and ensuring stability, a crash is extremely unlikely. So who to believe now? The bears or MM Lee? Hahaha ... Minister Mentor Lee said property values are bound to go up in the long run because the government is continuously building more infrastructure and attracting higher-value investments that provide higher wages to employees. "
"well said, MM. The surge time will come, swift & just happen overnight.
Global rate cut is good for property, globally is trying to flood US$10 Trillion... Spore govt also will come out with a stimulus budget to drive Spore economy. Once engine starts, you will see buyers coming back."
"the mean property price of a country with sound economy will rise in tandem with its economic growth is pretty much common sense .. MM Lee said property price will rise in the long run .. he didn't say it'll surge from where it is now, in fact he implies that it'll crash in the short term .. and he's trying reassure ppl that after the crash, it'll again rise in the long run. "
"MM Lee mentioned of our reserve to see us through this crisis is chilling. He has said NO to touching the reserve in past recessions...global rate cut is not going to save spore overvalued-property price because banks are tight with their lendings because of a credibility crisis, not just a credit crisis .. China stimulus is to boost its domestic economy ... if it can save itself is already very good .. don't depend on china to save our economy, much less our property...Spore stimulus package is likely for public spendings on long-term infrastructure as we have seen in the past .. and as tharman mentioned, to help business's cash flow .. we've never seen a recession this bad that cash flow of business is severely impaired that it needs to be in our budget .. it's frightening .. the more the govt is doing way more than past recessions, the more it signals the severity of this recession. BEWARE!"
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
4
comments
Labels: 0.3 Property News Analysis Nov 2008, 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - nov
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Impact of Singapore Government's Land Sales Halt
The Singapore government recent announcement to halt land sales in view of the plunging sales of private property market bring to mind the same measure that was carried out during the 97-Asian Financial Crisis. The following is a forum-exchange on the impact of the measure extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:"我 已 經 說 過 , 那 股已 經 上 岸 的 心 態 使 到 自 己 已 無 當年 之 勇 , 更 何 況 金 融 海 嘯 的 確 是 生 平 所 未 見 , 多 年來 幸 運 地 賺 到 一 些 錢 , 目 前 想 買樓 的 念 頭 可 能 強 過 買 股 票 , 仍 打 不 定 主 意 。 樓 價 只要 特 區 政 府 堅 守 「 勾 地 」 政 策 ,土 地 供 應 有 限 , 價 格 不 可 能 大 跌 。
買樓 與 買 股 最 大 的 分 別 是 : 股 價 波 幅 太 大 , 影 響 心 理 健 康 , 樓 價 只 要 能 夠 做 到 毋 須樓按 , 則 不 會 有 甚 麼 壓 力 。 買 樓 收 租 是 我 將 來 的 退 休 大 計 , 兩 千 年 來 , 中 國 的 地 方鄉紳 就 是 靠 買 地 收 租 當 地 主 而 一 代 傳 一 代 , 這 是 最 簡 單 的 保 護 財 富 方 法 。"
"He is right.
As long as Govt stop selling land, cut out the supply in near future, property price wil be sustainable.
Demand will still be there, new family, marriage, FT, immigrants, 6.5M population, Sporean back from US & Europe......
Market just waiting for signal to up again."
"govt also stop land sales during the 97-Asian financial crisis but private property price plunged neverthelessly by 40%-50% by developers and in some cases, 70% by sellers ... when the govt acts, it's usually because they already see the crash!!!
in fact, in the 97-crisis, the overhanging supply is only half of what we see today .. it took more than 10 years for property price to recover .."
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
4
comments
Labels: 0.5 Property News Analysis Nov 2008, 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - nov
Private Property Buyers' Tip: Points to consider before buying
Let me state based on my own understanding why I think prices have not bottomed out and it is worth it to wait a little longer at this current time.Singapore Economy heading towards "real" recession
1. Singapore is an open economy that is export driven. We are in a technical recession and heading towards a "real" recession. Jobs will be lost and people displaced. It is not wise to buy private property when your rice bowl is uncertain.
Credit Crunch
2. Banks have necessarily tightened credit conditions. Buyers may not be able to get the amount of loan that they want. Instead of 80%, they may only get 60-70%. Cash/CPF upfront payments will get bigger and current prices therefore will have to fall to a sustainable level.
Global Crisis Still Cloudy
3. The global financial crisis is unprecedented. We still do not know the full effects of the bailouts yet. The current euphoria regarding the US election will eventually wear off and reality will set in when callus hands meets the yoke.
Marginal Property Flippers yet to emerge in full force
4. The TOPs are only just starting. The flippers with no holding power are only just starting to sell. Many are still holding out for "Hai Gong's". Let them wait for several months more until they are really desperate before you do a massive price slash.
Hypes Surrounding Real Estate Boom have faded
5. The hype about the Olympics, IR, YOG and Foreign Talent has officially died. All the potential upsides have been more than priced in.
Home buyers' Downgrading may cause private property price to be unsustainable
6. Young couples, even the middle to higher income have shifted to HDBs because condo prices have gone beyond their reach. There are fewer and fewer real buyers to sustain prices.
Condos are not really value for money
7. Condos are luxury items. Real owner buyers want to live a "good" and comfortable life in their condos. However, newer condos may even be inferior to HDB in terms of comfort. Some of them don't have enough carpark lots for residents. Some are so small and cramped as to be little more than a pidgeon hole. Some are located in places that are inconvenient without nearby food places, amenities. I think property developers may have got it wrong in this respect. People want to upgrade to Private from HDB by and large because they want a more comfortable lifestyle. Living in an expensive and tiny pidgeonhole where your car has no lot to park in, where your bedroom is so tiny that you can't have bedroom cabinet doors that swing out... instead, they have to be sliding, where facilities are overcrowded, maintenance fees are high, etc. etc. is more torture than an upgrade of lifestyle. Therefore, some developments are just not worth the money...
Impending Supply Glut
8. There is a glut coming from the projects whose launch dates can't be pushed back further.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
1 comments
Labels: 3. Private Property Outlook, 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - nov
HDB Flat vs Private Condo: Which is better value?
A forum exchange extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:"Condos are luxury items. Real owner buyers want to live a "good" and comfortable life in their condos. However, newer condos may even be inferior to HDB in terms of comfort. Some of them don't have enough carpark lots for residents. Some are so small and cramped as to be little more than a pidgeon hole. Some are located in places that are inconvenient without nearby food places, amenities. I think property developers may have got it wrong in this respect. People want to upgrade to Private from HDB by and large because they want a more comfortable lifestyle. Living in an expensive and tiny pidgeonhole where your car has no lot to park in, where your bedroom is so tiny that you can't have bedroom cabinet doors that swing out... instead, they have to be sliding, where facilities are overcrowded, maintenance fees are high, etc. etc. is more torture than an upgrade of lifestyle. Therefore, some developments are just not worth the money..."
"Must say I really agree with you this. Although they're marketed as 'luxury' (and priced as such), many new condos are in more ways a regression. Rooms are now so small they don't even dare to put a bed in the showflat for fear you'd realise just how cramped the rooms are. Huge bay windows in every room consume what little precious space is left. Downstairs, there are no open areas to walk on, or for kids to play. The little space between blocks is used for the pools. The plots are built right up to the edge so that your window opens straight into the window/wall of the adjacent property. Clubhouse is more of a 'room', and 'gym' can barely take more than 4-5 people at once. These make new condos bad deals compared with older developments. I actually know a family who own both a condo and HDB, but decided to 'downgrade' back to the HDB after the novelty of condo living wore off, and they realised they actually got a BETTER quality of life staying in their huge HDB flat."
"I really agree with the point. The quality of life of modern S'porean living in new crampy condo is really bad. They work their shit out of their busy day and the only thing to do is just to pay off their loan for the condo and car. As though the whole world and whole life is to live in a crampy, lousy condo. How sad. They have no life! "
"Yes and your HDB units door is just 2 metres away from your neighbor, and the rubbish chute is just downstairs with the huge foul smell every afternoon when the garbage collectors came....And every Chap Goh Mei, you will see thrashes and thrashes of paper being burnt with no containers without due consideration for neighbors upstairs.... and the lift has lots of saliva, kids urine and its bloody cramp and smelly...plus the fact that the void deck is full of scum. And your neighbors will be foreign workers from India and China who will make noise every hour and hang their clothes right in front of your door....Hahahah which one is better living now? HDB or condo....what a fool !! "
"beside points above, many single lady drive back late at night dare not walk from car park to home, security is an issue, compared to walk fence up in condo with guards. O$P$ is so common inside lift, walls near lift in every floor, re-paint again & again.
No facility, it's convenient if you exercise regularly, track-mill, swimming, common air-con study room. Nicer surrounding, walking path, nice tiles in corridor, higher ceiling, better environment....
It's just totally different living comfort & condition, don't talk about status.
HDB is good, but just can't compare."
"I've spent equal amount of my adulthood living in HDB flats and condos. Strictly as a consumption good, condos do offer a more interesting lifestyle and better security than HDB. Of course, you've to pay maintenance and sinking funds for all those facilities in private condos, whereas HDB landscaping and regular painting come free. Also, because of the government's HDB upgrading, common areas in HDB with their covered walkway and tiled pavements are a lot more appealing than private estate. Most of all, if living in a condo means you've to work all your guts out to pay for it, then you'd be better off living in a HDB flat than be burdened with all those financial worries. Finally, if you're looking at investment returns, then no doubt HDB is better than condos esp 99LH condos."
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Posted by
Smart Buyer
3
comments