Showing posts with label 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - oct. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 9.9 Singapore Property Crash Trends - oct. Show all posts
Thursday, October 30, 2008
About this Blog
Bears are waiting for property prices to reach its lowest. But they are truly stupid. The answer is simple. When property prices reach its lowest, that will be the time when the property market will start recovering. By then interest rate will pick up back again ! Imagine buying a property now and taking up a loan of interest rate less than 2.5% a year. Say, the downturn lasted for 2 years. That means a huge savings in interests. 2 years later, interest rate pick up to 5%, and when the bears bought, they are tying themselves up with a higher interest package loan while old timers enjoy a good rate package. At the end of the day, no such thing as losing or winning cause the banks will still earn the same amount from you. Also, with the current high construction costs, its very unlikely property prices will drop more than 20% from now till end 2009. 2010 property market will recover so does the stock market.....To wait to buy at 20% discount but ending oneself paying higher interest package for property loan is simply not worth it....In addition, no one knows when the property market will reach its lowest...its simply a gamble, a risk to take..
Anonymous wrote:
Housing loan rate will cut to 1% soon with US Fed rate going to 0-0.5% within next 2 moths. Bears will say rate is not a consideration, let them be, they do not know the significant. This rate will here to stay for a long period. Construction & material cost is still on high side, it will down a bit & shoot up to historical high in next 12-18 months due to hyper-inflation kick in. Rental yield of HDB at 7-10% now, price will be sustainable for a while for low to mid end condo. This yield will be here to stay due to strong demand. Wait till China take action on global economy within next 12 months, will see a good run, wait, it will come.
Anonymous wrote:
Reality has proved that bulls have been stupid buying properties at peak prices ... so who are the stupid ones to teach the smart ones ... Only stupid people will tell you that it is stupid to aim to buy "When property prices reach its lowest, that will be the time when the property market will start recovering." Anyone with some brains will know that's the best thing that can ever happen to a property investor. Even to buy when market has shown slight upturn is better to buy on the downturn when you have no idea when it'll end.. The downturn, according to most analysts, will reduce in property price plunging by 40% - 75%. Only stupid people will even consider mortgage rate gong from 2.5% to 5% as a sound reason for buying now. Commodities prices have already dropped as much 80%, so will construction costs in the longer as the global economy enters into a "savings" era from a "credit" era. In the new era of "expensive, tight credits", property have to come down because there is simply no money to chase up the property price. Best thing, when property price drop by 50%-75%, buyers may need only a small mortgage or no mortgage at all ... so you don't even have to consider mortgage rate.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Buying Tip: When to Buy? Wait for the Bottom?
Tina wrote:Bears are waiting for property prices to reach its lowest. But they are truly stupid. The answer is simple. When property prices reach its lowest, that will be the time when the property market will start recovering. By then interest rate will pick up back again ! Imagine buying a property now and taking up a loan of interest rate less than 2.5% a year. Say, the downturn lasted for 2 years. That means a huge savings in interests. 2 years later, interest rate pick up to 5%, and when the bears bought, they are tying themselves up with a higher interest package loan while old timers enjoy a good rate package. At the end of the day, no such thing as losing or winning cause the banks will still earn the same amount from you. Also, with the current high construction costs, its very unlikely property prices will drop more than 20% from now till end 2009. 2010 property market will recover so does the stock market.....To wait to buy at 20% discount but ending oneself paying higher interest package for property loan is simply not worth it....In addition, no one knows when the property market will reach its lowest...its simply a gamble, a risk to take..
Anonymous wrote:
Housing loan rate will cut to 1% soon with US Fed rate going to 0-0.5% within next 2 moths. Bears will say rate is not a consideration, let them be, they do not know the significant. This rate will here to stay for a long period. Construction & material cost is still on high side, it will down a bit & shoot up to historical high in next 12-18 months due to hyper-inflation kick in. Rental yield of HDB at 7-10% now, price will be sustainable for a while for low to mid end condo. This yield will be here to stay due to strong demand. Wait till China take action on global economy within next 12 months, will see a good run, wait, it will come.
Anonymous wrote:
Reality has proved that bulls have been stupid buying properties at peak prices ... so who are the stupid ones to teach the smart ones ... Only stupid people will tell you that it is stupid to aim to buy "When property prices reach its lowest, that will be the time when the property market will start recovering." Anyone with some brains will know that's the best thing that can ever happen to a property investor. Even to buy when market has shown slight upturn is better to buy on the downturn when you have no idea when it'll end.. The downturn, according to most analysts, will reduce in property price plunging by 40% - 75%. Only stupid people will even consider mortgage rate gong from 2.5% to 5% as a sound reason for buying now. Commodities prices have already dropped as much 80%, so will construction costs in the longer as the global economy enters into a "savings" era from a "credit" era. In the new era of "expensive, tight credits", property have to come down because there is simply no money to chase up the property price. Best thing, when property price drop by 50%-75%, buyers may need only a small mortgage or no mortgage at all ... so you don't even have to consider mortgage rate.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
About this Blog
According to some property agents, some of their clients are willing to give as much as 20% discount or even more. Even with the hefty discount, these luxurious multi-million-dollar apartments are hardly a steal.
The situation is worse for those who opted for deferred payment schemes because some are no longer eligible for loans, and cannot meet payments once the developers issue the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP). If they fail to sell off their properties before TOP, they may have to sell at even greater discounts.
The high-end property market seems to be hit the hardest, according to a property agent who said , 'My colleagues who specialise in high-end properties are not doing well. They do not have any transactions at all.'
Many of these high-end property speculators are stuck because they can neither sell their property, nor rent it out to cover their mortgages, as the rental market has slowed down a lot.
In response to the report, forumers at the Singapore Property Forum have these advice for property buyers:
"Not yet (time to buy), give it another 6 mth to 1 year, then you can see what "lelong lelong" is like ... bears be patient ... "
"Yes, be careful that all this lelong lelong shouts may not really be bargains at all .. for $1M you cannot even get a small studio ... look at the real investment value in terms of rental yield ... don't pay too much attention to the discount given .. after all, to begin with, these properties are really over-valued .. "
"Good advice - properties are still over-valued. Price has to come down more. "
"There are fire-sales already? 20% off. Although I am a bear but I didn't expect the drop to be quite so steep so fast. I was expecting a protracted argument with the bulls for at least 3-6 months or so and for prices to correct about 20-30% only in 2009.... OK, it looks like the crash may be bigger than expected. Would 50% be possible by end 2009? ... This is good for me because I can get a bigger unit with my budget after waiting for over a year but in a way, I feel bad for the people who have overcommitted on property."
"This is only the start of the mother of all meltdowns ... you've plenty to pick and choose from ..next year this time "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Property Crash: Deferred-Payment-Scheme Property Buyers Not Eligible for Bank Loans Cannot Pay Developers Come TOP
The New Paper reported in the article "FIRE SALE: OWNERS DUMP CONDOS" October 20, 2008; that stock market losses have forced some property owners to resort to 'fire sales' for a quick return to liquidity.According to some property agents, some of their clients are willing to give as much as 20% discount or even more. Even with the hefty discount, these luxurious multi-million-dollar apartments are hardly a steal.
The situation is worse for those who opted for deferred payment schemes because some are no longer eligible for loans, and cannot meet payments once the developers issue the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP). If they fail to sell off their properties before TOP, they may have to sell at even greater discounts.
The high-end property market seems to be hit the hardest, according to a property agent who said , 'My colleagues who specialise in high-end properties are not doing well. They do not have any transactions at all.'
Many of these high-end property speculators are stuck because they can neither sell their property, nor rent it out to cover their mortgages, as the rental market has slowed down a lot.
In response to the report, forumers at the Singapore Property Forum have these advice for property buyers:
"Not yet (time to buy), give it another 6 mth to 1 year, then you can see what "lelong lelong" is like ... bears be patient ... "
"Yes, be careful that all this lelong lelong shouts may not really be bargains at all .. for $1M you cannot even get a small studio ... look at the real investment value in terms of rental yield ... don't pay too much attention to the discount given .. after all, to begin with, these properties are really over-valued .. "
"Good advice - properties are still over-valued. Price has to come down more. "
"There are fire-sales already? 20% off. Although I am a bear but I didn't expect the drop to be quite so steep so fast. I was expecting a protracted argument with the bulls for at least 3-6 months or so and for prices to correct about 20-30% only in 2009.... OK, it looks like the crash may be bigger than expected. Would 50% be possible by end 2009? ... This is good for me because I can get a bigger unit with my budget after waiting for over a year but in a way, I feel bad for the people who have overcommitted on property."
"This is only the start of the mother of all meltdowns ... you've plenty to pick and choose from ..next year this time "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Monday, October 20, 2008
About this Blog
97-Asian crisis did not see the sort of credit crunch here that simply choked legitimate businesses into bankruptcies ..
97-Asian crisis was not accompanied the huge risk-aversion in the money market that we see today ..
I hereby pronounce, based on the above logics, that the days of easy, cheap credits chasing after properties is OVER!
Property price will now has to be fundamentally supported by the real wealth that a country can generate for its people.
Singapore property price will therefore has to correct downward by about 40-50% esp in the mass market to match the current affordability level of the masses, and if that affordability level declines with declining economic growth, property price may have to fall still further until a sustainable level is arrived at ..
from that sustainable price level, property price will then rise in line with economic growth in the absence of cheap, easy credits ..
WE ARE BACK TO BASICS.
Posted by Anonymoust in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Real Estate Investment Outlook: The days of easy, cheap credits chasing after properties is OVER!
We are facing the worst global financial crisis of the century, it doesn't take a lot of intelligence to gauge that its impact on the Singapore property price is going to be worse than the last 97-Asian financial crisis .. when property price plunged as much as 50% in the mass market ..97-Asian crisis did not see the sort of credit crunch here that simply choked legitimate businesses into bankruptcies ..
97-Asian crisis was not accompanied the huge risk-aversion in the money market that we see today ..
I hereby pronounce, based on the above logics, that the days of easy, cheap credits chasing after properties is OVER!
Property price will now has to be fundamentally supported by the real wealth that a country can generate for its people.
Singapore property price will therefore has to correct downward by about 40-50% esp in the mass market to match the current affordability level of the masses, and if that affordability level declines with declining economic growth, property price may have to fall still further until a sustainable level is arrived at ..
from that sustainable price level, property price will then rise in line with economic growth in the absence of cheap, easy credits ..
WE ARE BACK TO BASICS.
Posted by Anonymoust in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
About this Blog
Marc Faber, managing director of Asia-based investment advisory firm Marc Faber Ltd, said,"You have inflationary monetary policies, fiscal policies, and debt growth that will really accelerate."
When asked abot US situation now, Warren Buffett replied: "It's much easier just to inflate your way out of it. If you're a South American or Asian country that owes money in dollars, it gets very binding to pay back in dollars. But if you owe it in your own currency, you just print more currency. And we have the ability to print currency. We can denominate debt in our own currency, whereas many countries can't because people don't trust them."
Paul Volcker (chairman of the US central bank between 1979 and 1987 and credited for battling double-digit inflation that flared in the 1970s) when asked if the massive infusion of liquidity by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation or stagflation, said, "It's not going to be a problem in the short run. Inflation doesn't flourish in the face of recession. It's something we have to worry about when we get out of this recession."
The question is: Will Central banks' liquidity injection cause super-inflation?
Here are some forumers' views from the Singapore Property Forum:
Bull wrote:
The whole world will reach a super-inflation stage very soon, run for life to dump US$, who throw late who will lose more. US$ will crash, inflation will shoot to sky, US$500/barrel of oil is nothing, so what is $30/plate chicken rice in hawker center, then what is the value of cash? Property in S$ will surge super high.
Bear wrote:
super-huge-inflation + severe-deep-recession = catastrophic-stagflation = Singapore property will crash like never seen before ... this is going to be many times worse than 1996.
Anonymous wrote:
Hyperinflation: bull's latest pet theory. Well, let's see. There will probably be inflationary effects from printing money, but recessions are deflationary. My guess, recessionary effects will probably predominate because governments know they can't afford to have their currecies collapse. (that's even worse than recession).
Derek wrote:
Some people here have been screaming hyper-inflation, whether this is from vested interest or whatever, it does not really matter. However, to dismiss the notion of inflationary pressure offhand from the actions of the central banks across the world may not be completely prudent... so I would really appreciate if other forumers could help chip in with reasoned comments and viewpoints. Thanks!
Anonymous wrote:
Under normal circumstances, injection of liquidity of this scale by central banks would have an inflationary effect. But this is NOT normal circumstances. We are having a credit freeze, a totally different situation from the easy, cheap credits that fuelled the subprime crisis. Banks are moving to the other extreme, they no longer talk about the returns ON their money, they want to be ensured of the return OF their money. Even banks who are willing to lend, they are going to be very stringent, in fact, overly stringent. As such, a flush of liquidity into the economy is unlikely. Besides loans by central banks will be backed by collaterals and other terms and conditions to ensure that banks do not once again become reckless in their lending. The deposit guarantee and liquidity injection by central banks is aimed at stabilising the banking system and once the desired effect is achieved, I'd expect a quick and swift reversal of policy by central banks. Both US presidential candidates have vowed to have greater regulations in the financial system. It's more likely that it becomes over-done in that direction. In other words, expect stringent credit condition to prevail for a very long time.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Economic Outlook 2008-2009: Will Central banks' liquidity injection cause super-inflation?
Central banks' move to guarantee deposits and inject liquidity may produce inflationary pressure, according to some market watchers.Marc Faber, managing director of Asia-based investment advisory firm Marc Faber Ltd, said,"You have inflationary monetary policies, fiscal policies, and debt growth that will really accelerate."
When asked abot US situation now, Warren Buffett replied: "It's much easier just to inflate your way out of it. If you're a South American or Asian country that owes money in dollars, it gets very binding to pay back in dollars. But if you owe it in your own currency, you just print more currency. And we have the ability to print currency. We can denominate debt in our own currency, whereas many countries can't because people don't trust them."
Paul Volcker (chairman of the US central bank between 1979 and 1987 and credited for battling double-digit inflation that flared in the 1970s) when asked if the massive infusion of liquidity by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation or stagflation, said, "It's not going to be a problem in the short run. Inflation doesn't flourish in the face of recession. It's something we have to worry about when we get out of this recession."
The question is: Will Central banks' liquidity injection cause super-inflation?
Here are some forumers' views from the Singapore Property Forum:
Bull wrote:
The whole world will reach a super-inflation stage very soon, run for life to dump US$, who throw late who will lose more. US$ will crash, inflation will shoot to sky, US$500/barrel of oil is nothing, so what is $30/plate chicken rice in hawker center, then what is the value of cash? Property in S$ will surge super high.
Bear wrote:
super-huge-inflation + severe-deep-recession = catastrophic-stagflation = Singapore property will crash like never seen before ... this is going to be many times worse than 1996.
Anonymous wrote:
Hyperinflation: bull's latest pet theory. Well, let's see. There will probably be inflationary effects from printing money, but recessions are deflationary. My guess, recessionary effects will probably predominate because governments know they can't afford to have their currecies collapse. (that's even worse than recession).
Derek wrote:
Some people here have been screaming hyper-inflation, whether this is from vested interest or whatever, it does not really matter. However, to dismiss the notion of inflationary pressure offhand from the actions of the central banks across the world may not be completely prudent... so I would really appreciate if other forumers could help chip in with reasoned comments and viewpoints. Thanks!
Anonymous wrote:
Under normal circumstances, injection of liquidity of this scale by central banks would have an inflationary effect. But this is NOT normal circumstances. We are having a credit freeze, a totally different situation from the easy, cheap credits that fuelled the subprime crisis. Banks are moving to the other extreme, they no longer talk about the returns ON their money, they want to be ensured of the return OF their money. Even banks who are willing to lend, they are going to be very stringent, in fact, overly stringent. As such, a flush of liquidity into the economy is unlikely. Besides loans by central banks will be backed by collaterals and other terms and conditions to ensure that banks do not once again become reckless in their lending. The deposit guarantee and liquidity injection by central banks is aimed at stabilising the banking system and once the desired effect is achieved, I'd expect a quick and swift reversal of policy by central banks. Both US presidential candidates have vowed to have greater regulations in the financial system. It's more likely that it becomes over-done in that direction. In other words, expect stringent credit condition to prevail for a very long time.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
"One year back everyone knew it was going up. Today everyone knows its going down.
Do you think a recession after 6 years is a normal thing which will have no effect on property. Property will go down, and there's nothing that you and I can do to prevent it."
"If the ppty does go down this time, I tell you, the entire SIngaproe economy will collapse along with it Why? Because never in our history, we have so much exposure and have put in so much money into this sector. We are no longer talking about a homeownership of 85% or 90% in Singapore population, but a probably above 300%. Because since the ppty boom in 2004, many individual has bought and owned up to 3 or 4 ppty each. This is a very serious matter, folks! "
"Singapore economy is not going to collapse with property market crashing.. most people are just living in their properties so when prices go or down, it has no real impact .. those people who bought 3-4 properties will have to sell cheap and lose money if they can't hold.. period... people with the money to buy cheap will gain ... just a transfer of wealth .. The people who should worry are the people who are highly leveraged, like the developers and speculators. If banks have to write-off, then shareholders of banks will also suffer ... "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Property too big to fail?
Excerpt of forum exchanges from the Singapore Property Forum:"One year back everyone knew it was going up. Today everyone knows its going down.
Do you think a recession after 6 years is a normal thing which will have no effect on property. Property will go down, and there's nothing that you and I can do to prevent it."
"If the ppty does go down this time, I tell you, the entire SIngaproe economy will collapse along with it Why? Because never in our history, we have so much exposure and have put in so much money into this sector. We are no longer talking about a homeownership of 85% or 90% in Singapore population, but a probably above 300%. Because since the ppty boom in 2004, many individual has bought and owned up to 3 or 4 ppty each. This is a very serious matter, folks! "
"Singapore economy is not going to collapse with property market crashing.. most people are just living in their properties so when prices go or down, it has no real impact .. those people who bought 3-4 properties will have to sell cheap and lose money if they can't hold.. period... people with the money to buy cheap will gain ... just a transfer of wealth .. The people who should worry are the people who are highly leveraged, like the developers and speculators. If banks have to write-off, then shareholders of banks will also suffer ... "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Monday, October 13, 2008
About this Blog
From the onset, we've been in denial, defending the Asian economy with new theory like the "Decoupling Theory". Though the Asian financial institutions look strong so far, if you look around with more caution, you'll see hairline cracks in several Asian economies esp those with a bloated real estate bubble. Whether these hairline cracks will erupt into a full blown 1997 Asian financial crisis is yet to be seen. I'd want to remain cautious.
Even if the Asian financial institutions remain strong, which is what we all want to see, the Asian economies are undoubtedly going to be hit. Singapore economy, for one, has already fallen victim.
I won't say that this is going to worse for us than the Asian financial crisis but I won't be too quick to discount the possibility either.
In short, I'd not encourage property hunters to step into the market just yet. There should be no action until price is down considerably (for me, it's 40% and more).
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Compare current US Subprime Crisis with Asian Financial Crisis
I strongly disagree that the current US financial crisis is not as bad as the Asian financial crisis.From the onset, we've been in denial, defending the Asian economy with new theory like the "Decoupling Theory". Though the Asian financial institutions look strong so far, if you look around with more caution, you'll see hairline cracks in several Asian economies esp those with a bloated real estate bubble. Whether these hairline cracks will erupt into a full blown 1997 Asian financial crisis is yet to be seen. I'd want to remain cautious.
Even if the Asian financial institutions remain strong, which is what we all want to see, the Asian economies are undoubtedly going to be hit. Singapore economy, for one, has already fallen victim.
I won't say that this is going to worse for us than the Asian financial crisis but I won't be too quick to discount the possibility either.
In short, I'd not encourage property hunters to step into the market just yet. There should be no action until price is down considerably (for me, it's 40% and more).
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
That's why property prices always fall in a recession.
Property price will rise? Dream on. Not till the recession is over.
Posted by Anonynouse at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Negative Mortgage Rate will boost Property Price?
When recession comes, people don't go take out a million dollar loan to buy a property just because of negative real interest. Most are fearing for their jobs.That's why property prices always fall in a recession.
Property price will rise? Dream on. Not till the recession is over.
Posted by Anonynouse at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
About this Blog
Property sales down 81.4 per cent from August 2007. (1720 Aug 2007->320 Aug 2008)
GDP down 50% (2007 7.5% --> 2008 likely 4% or less)
Property price only down 1.8%? Sustainable? The support base is eroding month after month. If (when) it collapses, it will likely be serious.
Nicholas Mak:
‘As (these) problems persisted, it was only a matter of time before overall private home prices started to fall as well. Whatever price gain was achieved in the first half of this year will be given up in H2, resulting in flat prices for the whole of 2008.’
CB Richard Ellis’ executive director Li Hiaw Ho.:
‘Prices, which are now under tremendous pressure, are likely to decline again in Q4,’
DTZ’s Ms Chua.:
Even the OCR is unlikely to be immune. ‘While it has been performing better, prices in that area will also drop if the economic slowdown continues,’
Posted by Ann in the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Private Property Price Under Tremendous Pressure
Stock market fallen 45%.(STI 3800->2100)Property sales down 81.4 per cent from August 2007. (1720 Aug 2007->320 Aug 2008)
GDP down 50% (2007 7.5% --> 2008 likely 4% or less)
Property price only down 1.8%? Sustainable? The support base is eroding month after month. If (when) it collapses, it will likely be serious.
Nicholas Mak:
‘As (these) problems persisted, it was only a matter of time before overall private home prices started to fall as well. Whatever price gain was achieved in the first half of this year will be given up in H2, resulting in flat prices for the whole of 2008.’
CB Richard Ellis’ executive director Li Hiaw Ho.:
‘Prices, which are now under tremendous pressure, are likely to decline again in Q4,’
DTZ’s Ms Chua.:
Even the OCR is unlikely to be immune. ‘While it has been performing better, prices in that area will also drop if the economic slowdown continues,’
Posted by Ann in the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Monday, October 6, 2008
About this Blog
Ann wrote:
Singapore has to constantly reinvent itself just to maintain our current prosperity which is derived from being premium compared to our neighbours. For the next 5-10 years, current efforts (eg tourism, biotech, financial services, high-end manufacturing.) may succeed. For now, its not a done deal.
Running a tight ship can get you far and fast, but its still a small ship. Eventually, the limitation of size will catch up with us. We can’t keep reclaiming land, and we can’t keep increasing the population. This may become increasingly the rate-limiting factor to growth. Not enough space for roads, water, recreation, factories, offices, homes.
Our neighbours are also reinventing themselves. Tourism, financial services, high-end manufacturing, ports and shipping, reformations in governance (transparency, stamping out corruption, law-making etc)… China, India, HK, Malaysia are developing and eroding our lead. Why do it here when you can do it cheaper and nearer to where the real action and growth is? Our ability to command a price premium may weaken.
Last year, MM Lee was interviewed about Singapore’s long term prospects. He said that for now, we could attract foreign talents, but in 20-30 years time, once China, India has caught up, they won’t want to come here anymore.
20-30 years time is exactly the time frame of a mortgage loan. Lots of things could happen.
Anonymous wrote:
i agree with ann that the long term outlook of Singapore is very uncertain... even the medium outlook, which was rosy before the subprime crisis, is somewhat downcast ... the short tem outlook of course is a mess for those who are highly leveraged including the speculators and the developers ...
As a full-fledged bear, like Ann, I'd want to wait and see how history unfold itself before I decide how much money is the Singapore real estate really worthed .. one thing I am sure, it's definitely not worthed its current price.
Another anonymous wrote:
Sorry but I'm only bearish in the current and medium term. In the long term, Singapore still has a lot of things going for itself. Stable government, low crime, pro-business policies, solid worker base, large local companies that venture overseas, not to mention government war chest which runs to hundreds of billions of dollars. If you divide government chest with the total number of people, each Singaporean would have tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands. Then consider others countries (US for example) which borrows money, instead of lending. Each citizen of these countries, whether rich or poor, has a debt to pay. Their government take it out from the citizens thru various taxes. Due to economic uncertainties and price bubble, home prices should come down to more appropriate levels. But I don't see the Singapore economy collapsing in the future or even taking a lower position in the world economics.
Aitan wrote:
As long as our immediate neighbors don't play catch up at our playing level, Singapore should be still able to maintain its competitive edge. Though that its true, we also don't wish that they fall too far back in the race to prosperity. Having very poor neighbors when we lead and bound are definitely not in our advantage.
Remember what MM always said...Singapore can't grow and prosper if this region is not stable politically, economically and in constant conflicts. Look at 1950 to early 60's, you expect our property price to rise or for that matter, the whole economy to prosper?
Always bear in mind that the rest of the world view Singapore not as a stand alone country but just a small and tiny city state situated within a region with few hundred million people.
To expand a little further, Singapore is within a bigger spectrum of Asia. Just imagine the repercussion if North Korea goes to war with South Korea or China take Taiwan by force. Do you still think Singapore can survive on its own like Australia, without much regards to what happen in the outside world? If then, Australia still feel the pain if US falls sick.
"Stable govt, low crime, pro-business policies, solid worker base, large local companies that venture overseas, not to mention govt war chest which runs to hundreds of billions of dollars" as mentioned by Ann are all but prerequisite as we differentiate ourselves among our immediate neighbors.
Ultimately, Singapore's survival depends not only from within but also others factors that are not under our control.
With that said, I agreed with MM that Singapore should still be doing alright within the next ten years.
Ann wrote:
That's the problem. We can only be fairly confident about the next 10 years. At 10-20 years, competition may heat up. At 30 yrs (by the time we've paid up the mortgage), who knows?
Lots of foreign funds that were buying into Singapore property last year... how long is their investment horizon? My guess up to 5-10yrs, then KIV cut and run. Beyond that, probably unplanned.
Actually, some of them may even have been very short-term, speculative type. They were happy to pour money in whilst is seemed like a sure bet, easy money in 2-3yrs. But now, it is no longer certain, its not worth their while. That may explain why Kuwait Investhment House let their option expire, and why there are so few sales this year.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Property Outlook: Short, Medium and Long Term Outlook
What do Singapore property buyers think of the short term, medium term and long term outlook of Singapore property market? Do they agree with the Singapore political leaders that this is the most promising decade for Singapore? The following are some views extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:Ann wrote:
Singapore has to constantly reinvent itself just to maintain our current prosperity which is derived from being premium compared to our neighbours. For the next 5-10 years, current efforts (eg tourism, biotech, financial services, high-end manufacturing.) may succeed. For now, its not a done deal.
Running a tight ship can get you far and fast, but its still a small ship. Eventually, the limitation of size will catch up with us. We can’t keep reclaiming land, and we can’t keep increasing the population. This may become increasingly the rate-limiting factor to growth. Not enough space for roads, water, recreation, factories, offices, homes.
Our neighbours are also reinventing themselves. Tourism, financial services, high-end manufacturing, ports and shipping, reformations in governance (transparency, stamping out corruption, law-making etc)… China, India, HK, Malaysia are developing and eroding our lead. Why do it here when you can do it cheaper and nearer to where the real action and growth is? Our ability to command a price premium may weaken.
Last year, MM Lee was interviewed about Singapore’s long term prospects. He said that for now, we could attract foreign talents, but in 20-30 years time, once China, India has caught up, they won’t want to come here anymore.
20-30 years time is exactly the time frame of a mortgage loan. Lots of things could happen.
Anonymous wrote:
i agree with ann that the long term outlook of Singapore is very uncertain... even the medium outlook, which was rosy before the subprime crisis, is somewhat downcast ... the short tem outlook of course is a mess for those who are highly leveraged including the speculators and the developers ...
As a full-fledged bear, like Ann, I'd want to wait and see how history unfold itself before I decide how much money is the Singapore real estate really worthed .. one thing I am sure, it's definitely not worthed its current price.
Another anonymous wrote:
Sorry but I'm only bearish in the current and medium term. In the long term, Singapore still has a lot of things going for itself. Stable government, low crime, pro-business policies, solid worker base, large local companies that venture overseas, not to mention government war chest which runs to hundreds of billions of dollars. If you divide government chest with the total number of people, each Singaporean would have tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands. Then consider others countries (US for example) which borrows money, instead of lending. Each citizen of these countries, whether rich or poor, has a debt to pay. Their government take it out from the citizens thru various taxes. Due to economic uncertainties and price bubble, home prices should come down to more appropriate levels. But I don't see the Singapore economy collapsing in the future or even taking a lower position in the world economics.
Aitan wrote:
As long as our immediate neighbors don't play catch up at our playing level, Singapore should be still able to maintain its competitive edge. Though that its true, we also don't wish that they fall too far back in the race to prosperity. Having very poor neighbors when we lead and bound are definitely not in our advantage.
Remember what MM always said...Singapore can't grow and prosper if this region is not stable politically, economically and in constant conflicts. Look at 1950 to early 60's, you expect our property price to rise or for that matter, the whole economy to prosper?
Always bear in mind that the rest of the world view Singapore not as a stand alone country but just a small and tiny city state situated within a region with few hundred million people.
To expand a little further, Singapore is within a bigger spectrum of Asia. Just imagine the repercussion if North Korea goes to war with South Korea or China take Taiwan by force. Do you still think Singapore can survive on its own like Australia, without much regards to what happen in the outside world? If then, Australia still feel the pain if US falls sick.
"Stable govt, low crime, pro-business policies, solid worker base, large local companies that venture overseas, not to mention govt war chest which runs to hundreds of billions of dollars" as mentioned by Ann are all but prerequisite as we differentiate ourselves among our immediate neighbors.
Ultimately, Singapore's survival depends not only from within but also others factors that are not under our control.
With that said, I agreed with MM that Singapore should still be doing alright within the next ten years.
Ann wrote:
That's the problem. We can only be fairly confident about the next 10 years. At 10-20 years, competition may heat up. At 30 yrs (by the time we've paid up the mortgage), who knows?
Lots of foreign funds that were buying into Singapore property last year... how long is their investment horizon? My guess up to 5-10yrs, then KIV cut and run. Beyond that, probably unplanned.
Actually, some of them may even have been very short-term, speculative type. They were happy to pour money in whilst is seemed like a sure bet, easy money in 2-3yrs. But now, it is no longer certain, its not worth their while. That may explain why Kuwait Investhment House let their option expire, and why there are so few sales this year.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
Oct 6, 2008 Expect longer slowdown
www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_286417.html
Growth is slowing in the US, Europe, Japan, and even China and India, he noted. 'So globally the economy is slowing down. This is a fact we cannot escape.'
In tandem, unemployment is expected to increase.
Exuding confidence about the country's strong fundamentals, he told Singaporeans to keep their eye on the medium- to long-term future, as the short-term problems can be dealt with.
Politicians speeches' tend to be baised towards the positive. It wasn't so long ago that Bush, Bernanke and Paulson were reassuring Americans that economic 'fundamentals' were strong. Yet now they are warning of financial armageddon and that they are facing the worst crisis since 1930's.
How big is this going to get? You have to read between the lines... we can't escape, longer downturn, unemployment expected to increase, growth may dip below forecast, we have the reserves to provide relief measures...
Why battle down the hatches, unless they see a storm coming? I don't think you can expect the worst crisis since the 1930's to be anything mild.
Posted by anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Economic Outlook: Worst crisis since the 1930's
I'm just going to comment on a few excerpts from the report:Oct 6, 2008 Expect longer slowdown
www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_286417.html
Growth is slowing in the US, Europe, Japan, and even China and India, he noted. 'So globally the economy is slowing down. This is a fact we cannot escape.'
In tandem, unemployment is expected to increase.
Exuding confidence about the country's strong fundamentals, he told Singaporeans to keep their eye on the medium- to long-term future, as the short-term problems can be dealt with.
Politicians speeches' tend to be baised towards the positive. It wasn't so long ago that Bush, Bernanke and Paulson were reassuring Americans that economic 'fundamentals' were strong. Yet now they are warning of financial armageddon and that they are facing the worst crisis since 1930's.
How big is this going to get? You have to read between the lines... we can't escape, longer downturn, unemployment expected to increase, growth may dip below forecast, we have the reserves to provide relief measures...
Why battle down the hatches, unless they see a storm coming? I don't think you can expect the worst crisis since the 1930's to be anything mild.
Posted by anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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