Thursday, October 2, 2008

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HDB Q3 2008 Real Estate Statistics Flash: HDB Resale Price Rose 4.2% in Q3 2008

HDB Resale Price Rose 4.2% in Q3 2008


HDB’s flash estimate of the Q3 2008 Resale Price Index (RPI) is 137.4, an increase of 4.2% over the Q2 2008. Though slightly lower than the 4.5% increase in Q2 2008, the increase in HDB resale price is still very strong and reflects the continuous supply crunch in the HDB resale market. Up until now, the HDB resale market does not seem to suffer any subprime crisis. The strong demand has been driven largely by the "new citizens".

May also want to read:

HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

If this is the case, can you forecast how long one may need to wait to get a good deal for five room flat! Will it be in months or years.

Smart Buyer said...

No, I can't. To begin with, I don't know what is a good deal to you. Are you buying or selling?

Btw I do not possess any psyche power to see into the future. I can only make a guess based on my research and experience. :)

Anonymous said...

Okay. This is my case. I am a PR for past seven years, waiting for buying a HDB Flat. When I decided to buy the price started rising. So I waited for past one year plus. Two months back I saw your blog and the forum in property.utalkitalk.com and I am till date following those. Both gave me a good view about the market trend. So I like to know your "guess" on the HDB resale trend. :)

Smart Buyer said...

Look like we're heading for a recession already and if it lasts beyond 4 quarters, the longest ever, then maybe you've a chance. Well, it's a guess, since you asked because I prefer not to speculate.

Anonymous said...

Hi Smart Buyer,

I need your help here...

I have just got to know your blog recently. I need your opinion on my case. I have just excercise my OTP for a HDB and paid about 5k in total. I bought HDB 4 room at Sengkang at 322k like 2 weeks ago.

Understand, market is going downtrend, do you have any prediction how much it will go down yearly and how long it may go down?

I knew that during the financial crisis based on your chart, yearly market went down about 10% for about 2 years (and that is a lot to me).

I am so so worried cause we actually borrowed so much money from the bank, and if the market crashed let say dropped by 10 % i will really really cry....

Should i back out from the OTP that i have signed? I know that there is penalty about 1% if not mistaken plus my exercise and dp and so on...10k will be gone...

but i have to make comparison with the hdb market downward percentage....if it is so much, i will choose to backout and lose my money....but if it not that much, i will stay and continue to excercise my option...

please help....which decision that i should make...

Smart Buyer said...

Dear Anonymous,

Please check with HDB to ensure that the penalty of backing out after you have EXCERCISED your OTP is only $10K. Do not depend on hearsay as a mistake can be costly.

The current HDB resale market is quite different from that of 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis as you have read in the following post:
http://smartpropertybuyer.blogspot.com/2008/07/hdb-resales-price-may-surpass-1996-peak.html

Also consider the costs of the alternative: If you do not go ahead with your purchase, what is your cost of seeking alternative accomodation, and how long do you have to wait for price to fall, if it does fall etc..

Best wishes.

Anonymous said...

hello smart buyer...

this is me again. i am stil confuse up to now...which one that i should decide.

If you were me, what will be your decision considering future hdb resale market trend? Will it go down like more than 5% yearly in your opimion?

i have not signed a letter of offer with the bank yet, and the due date is saturday morning...however up to now i still have no idea, should i proceed or backout....considering if backout is 10k, if you were me, will you go backout or stay put?

thanks!!

Smart Buyer said...

If you think HDB resale price will drop 5%, then consider that against the cost of renting and whatever money you are going to lose if you back out.

Personally, I don't think HDB resale price will decline like the last crisis, especially for HDB flats in the suburbs which are still priced at affordable level compared to the hugely over-priced private property.

But then again, the end result will hinge on the severity of the Singapore economic growth which is hard to tell at this point. We've people talking about a 1930's depression to a prolonged downturn. Which will you bet on?
Well, nobody can or should decide for you.

Anonymous said...

Hi, Smart Buyer, have read your blog for some time. just wanna ask do you have any idea what the sales volume in Q3, don't know why HDB has one month lag in publishing this figure?

best,
masia

Smart Buyer said...

Dear Masia,
HDB should be publishing that in a couple of weeks in its Q3 real estate statistics. The flash statistics do not provide such details.

Yes, that's a figure to watch out for. A drastic drop will indicate buying resistance and likely the prelude to a price correction (as seen in the private property market now).

Best wishes

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