Wednesday, October 1, 2008
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Most economists have already cut their estimates of Singapore's 2008 growth to less than 4%, the lower limit of the government forecast.
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng pared his GDP growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2008 and 2.5% for 2009. He reckons the upcoming Q3 2008 flash estimates will likely show a 1% dip from a year ago, and a 7.4% dip from Q2 2008. His Citi analyst colleagues say the severity and duration of the recession is still unclear, and will depend on how the global downturn and global credit crunch pan out.
During the 1985-86 and the 2001 recessions, each saw 4 quarters of year-on-year GDP contraction, while the 1997-98 Asian crisis saw 3 quarters. The 2003 Sars recession was a 'short' single-quarter downturn, due largely to successful disease containment rather than economic factors.
But now more than half of the world's economies (notably the major and big ones) are at risk of recession - with the US and the UK, in particular, on the brink of a systemic financial crisis. Singapore's financial services will soon feel the impact of the credit crunch and global consolidation - and job growth may turn negative next year, the Citi report says.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Economy Outlook 2008-2009: Economists say Recession likely to be long
Citigroup economists predicted that Singapore economy will likely go into a long recession that will last several quarters and the worst will likely occur in H1 2009.Most economists have already cut their estimates of Singapore's 2008 growth to less than 4%, the lower limit of the government forecast.
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng pared his GDP growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2008 and 2.5% for 2009. He reckons the upcoming Q3 2008 flash estimates will likely show a 1% dip from a year ago, and a 7.4% dip from Q2 2008. His Citi analyst colleagues say the severity and duration of the recession is still unclear, and will depend on how the global downturn and global credit crunch pan out.
During the 1985-86 and the 2001 recessions, each saw 4 quarters of year-on-year GDP contraction, while the 1997-98 Asian crisis saw 3 quarters. The 2003 Sars recession was a 'short' single-quarter downturn, due largely to successful disease containment rather than economic factors.
But now more than half of the world's economies (notably the major and big ones) are at risk of recession - with the US and the UK, in particular, on the brink of a systemic financial crisis. Singapore's financial services will soon feel the impact of the credit crunch and global consolidation - and job growth may turn negative next year, the Citi report says.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
HDB Resale flats Price Index 1990-2008: Graph & Chart
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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1 comments:
● The recent figure on the drop in the index is the first in four years, after surging 55%
since the trough in 1Q04. We believe this signals the beginning of
a prolonged decline due to weakening demand as well as a high
number of projected completions T
● The confluence of a weakening global outlook, potential job
losses, and uncertainties surrounding the credit markets help us
Conclusion: It is official and it is a falling knife. Buyers beware.
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