Monday, November 10, 2008

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MM Lee: Property Price will continue to rise in the long term

In response to the news reportby CNA 9 Nov 2008, "MM Lee believes property values will continue to rise in long term"; forumers in the Singapore Property Forum wrote:

"Here are the good words of our own MM Lee whom some Bears had reminded us that property will go down in cyclical..seems like MM Lee is very optimistic of Singapore property market. And the fact that the government is controlling supply and ensuring stability, a crash is extremely unlikely. So who to believe now? The bears or MM Lee? Hahaha ... Minister Mentor Lee said property values are bound to go up in the long run because the government is continuously building more infrastructure and attracting higher-value investments that provide higher wages to employees. "

"well said, MM. The surge time will come, swift & just happen overnight.
Global rate cut is good for property, globally is trying to flood US$10 Trillion... Spore govt also will come out with a stimulus budget to drive Spore economy. Once engine starts, you will see buyers coming back."

"the mean property price of a country with sound economy will rise in tandem with its economic growth is pretty much common sense .. MM Lee said property price will rise in the long run .. he didn't say it'll surge from where it is now, in fact he implies that it'll crash in the short term .. and he's trying reassure ppl that after the crash, it'll again rise in the long run. "

"MM Lee mentioned of our reserve to see us through this crisis is chilling. He has said NO to touching the reserve in past rate cut is not going to save spore overvalued-property price because banks are tight with their lendings because of a credibility crisis, not just a credit crisis .. China stimulus is to boost its domestic economy ... if it can save itself is already very good .. don't depend on china to save our economy, much less our property...Spore stimulus package is likely for public spendings on long-term infrastructure as we have seen in the past .. and as tharman mentioned, to help business's cash flow .. we've never seen a recession this bad that cash flow of business is severely impaired that it needs to be in our budget .. it's frightening .. the more the govt is doing way more than past recessions, the more it signals the severity of this recession. BEWARE!"

May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase


Vincent said...

The discussions in the property forum missed out one important point which MM Lee is emphasizing. He says '80% of Singaporeans live in HDB and it is steady cos there is real demand from the locals'. Private property prices can collapse and it will not affect the majority of singaporeans. Only those speculative private properties investors will be burnt badly this time round.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the forumer who said this:
the most sacred of the sacred government cows has been slayed. The doors to the SG government reserves have been opened. This didn't even happen in the Asian Financial crisis where we were supposed to be less well prepared. Then, people had to suffer CPF cuts but the Gov still refused to open the coffers. LKY even came out with a very long speech on why we cannot use the reserves. If I remember correctly, there was that big disagreement between the late President OTC and LKY on the reserves.

Today, President Nathan has agreed to opening the doors to the reserves. Why didn't LKY or any of the ministers disagree and ask for CPF cuts instead? That was what they always used to do. Cut CPF but cannot touch reserves.

So why is CPF left alone this time but instead the Gov chose to open the gates to the reserves? Could it be because there is no longer enough CPF money for the Gov to invest and hedge? Is it because people have already over leveraged and "overdrawn" their CPF presumably for property and any cut will affect current homeowners with overpriced property quite badly? Banks are already more stringent. If CPF also cut, I can't imagine what will happen.

Kenn7 said...

Very well analysis by all. Guess our Leader is trying to calm down the crowd before the real storm hit us. Want to continue to boost the economy and persuade ppl to spend HDB will come down too. Now buyer is KING. Alot of sellers want to let go of their HDB below valuation but no serious buyer. Now agents also reluctant to accept exlusive and advertise in newspaper cos mkt sentiment is bad. Just my opinion so pls comment. i might be wrong =)

Anonymous said...

One reason i beleive the reserve is open this time is because the investment made by sovereign fund is suffering heavy losses & most assets class is severly impaired by the drastic correction as seen in recent months even town council is exposed to lehman note.

2) not much money left as this financial crisis is beyong anyone expectation with regard to the damage that it causes ie worldwide recession.

3) reserve need to be used in unusual financial crisis, as govt need to do a lot of fiscal stimulus to pump growth into singapore.

4) cutting CPF will hurt ordinary people as this is gloabl recession not local receesion which is different from 97 crisis. furthermore cutting CPF is most unpopular move as it will hurt many HDB owner given the high mortgage default rate in HDB and not forgetting the bank ie forclosure which is happening in US. Also the high HDB price in current year is not a good timing to cut CPF. maybe if the situation get worse, who knows CPF contribution will be cut again.One cannot rule out such option. So be prepared for the worst case scenario

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