Thursday, November 6, 2008
About this Blog
1. Singapore is an open economy that is export driven. We are in a technical recession and heading towards a "real" recession. Jobs will be lost and people displaced. It is not wise to buy private property when your rice bowl is uncertain.
2. Banks have necessarily tightened credit conditions. Buyers may not be able to get the amount of loan that they want. Instead of 80%, they may only get 60-70%. Cash/CPF upfront payments will get bigger and current prices therefore will have to fall to a sustainable level.
3. The global financial crisis is unprecedented. We still do not know the full effects of the bailouts yet. The current euphoria regarding the US election will eventually wear off and reality will set in when callus hands meets the yoke.
4. The TOPs are only just starting. The flippers with no holding power are only just starting to sell. Many are still holding out for "Hai Gong's". Let them wait for several months more until they are really desperate before you do a massive price slash.
5. The hype about the Olympics, IR, YOG and Foreign Talent has officially died. All the potential upsides have been more than priced in.
6. Young couples, even the middle to higher income have shifted to HDBs because condo prices have gone beyond their reach. There are fewer and fewer real buyers to sustain prices.
7. Condos are luxury items. Real owner buyers want to live a "good" and comfortable life in their condos. However, newer condos may even be inferior to HDB in terms of comfort. Some of them don't have enough carpark lots for residents. Some are so small and cramped as to be little more than a pidgeon hole. Some are located in places that are inconvenient without nearby food places, amenities. I think property developers may have got it wrong in this respect. People want to upgrade to Private from HDB by and large because they want a more comfortable lifestyle. Living in an expensive and tiny pidgeonhole where your car has no lot to park in, where your bedroom is so tiny that you can't have bedroom cabinet doors that swing out... instead, they have to be sliding, where facilities are overcrowded, maintenance fees are high, etc. etc. is more torture than an upgrade of lifestyle. Therefore, some developments are just not worth the money...
8. There is a glut coming from the projects whose launch dates can't be pushed back further.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Private Property Buyers' Tip: Points to consider before buying
Let me state based on my own understanding why I think prices have not bottomed out and it is worth it to wait a little longer at this current time.Singapore Economy heading towards "real" recession
1. Singapore is an open economy that is export driven. We are in a technical recession and heading towards a "real" recession. Jobs will be lost and people displaced. It is not wise to buy private property when your rice bowl is uncertain.
Credit Crunch
2. Banks have necessarily tightened credit conditions. Buyers may not be able to get the amount of loan that they want. Instead of 80%, they may only get 60-70%. Cash/CPF upfront payments will get bigger and current prices therefore will have to fall to a sustainable level.
Global Crisis Still Cloudy
3. The global financial crisis is unprecedented. We still do not know the full effects of the bailouts yet. The current euphoria regarding the US election will eventually wear off and reality will set in when callus hands meets the yoke.
Marginal Property Flippers yet to emerge in full force
4. The TOPs are only just starting. The flippers with no holding power are only just starting to sell. Many are still holding out for "Hai Gong's". Let them wait for several months more until they are really desperate before you do a massive price slash.
Hypes Surrounding Real Estate Boom have faded
5. The hype about the Olympics, IR, YOG and Foreign Talent has officially died. All the potential upsides have been more than priced in.
Home buyers' Downgrading may cause private property price to be unsustainable
6. Young couples, even the middle to higher income have shifted to HDBs because condo prices have gone beyond their reach. There are fewer and fewer real buyers to sustain prices.
Condos are not really value for money
7. Condos are luxury items. Real owner buyers want to live a "good" and comfortable life in their condos. However, newer condos may even be inferior to HDB in terms of comfort. Some of them don't have enough carpark lots for residents. Some are so small and cramped as to be little more than a pidgeon hole. Some are located in places that are inconvenient without nearby food places, amenities. I think property developers may have got it wrong in this respect. People want to upgrade to Private from HDB by and large because they want a more comfortable lifestyle. Living in an expensive and tiny pidgeonhole where your car has no lot to park in, where your bedroom is so tiny that you can't have bedroom cabinet doors that swing out... instead, they have to be sliding, where facilities are overcrowded, maintenance fees are high, etc. etc. is more torture than an upgrade of lifestyle. Therefore, some developments are just not worth the money...
Impending Supply Glut
8. There is a glut coming from the projects whose launch dates can't be pushed back further.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Fire Sale: Owners Dump Condos
The days of Cheap, Easy Credits chasing after property is OVER!
When the bubble of greed and fear burst, guess who suffer?
Property Investment Tip: Don't put all your eggs in one basket
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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1 comments:
Recently, i went into a recently completed private condominium project and was shocked to see how small the roomsand even toilets were. They are made worst by erection of bay windows and planter boxes. They appear all over even in the toilets. How to put a descent bed and a few furnitures? The various block of units were so close to each other and you can see clearly the movement or even what the occupants are doing or dressing. I guess such projects appeal to peeping toms and sex maniacs! I went to showflats recently and was warmly greeted by a number of agents in suits. Similarly, i found almost all the developers showflats have such features. Bay window and planter boxes, often make up a certain per cent of a condo’s saleable area, used to be exempt from GFA calculations. Hence, the developers were taking advantage of this loophole and farm it our for sale to the unwary buyers who buy on paper. But buyers paid developers for this area as it was provided with the unit. Private property are already overpriced yet buyers have to be contended with such quality and expensive living conditions. It is disgusting! BEWARE!
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The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.
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