Monday, August 18, 2008
About this Blog
The following are forumers comments extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
More foreign talents to buy private properties. They were one of the group that move the price up. We have no enough people to fill the jobs and not enough housing too. Hurray!
Forumer 2 wrote:
Hurray? Remember the previous weeks, everyone such as Ku Swee Yong of Savillis was saying that 45,000 foreigners will come in. Now PM says its 20,000. Reduced by more than half and not all will be foreigners.
Forumer 3 wrote:
I think he is refering to 20000 foreigners will be working in our two IRs.
Forumer 4 wrote:
No, I'm positive he said 20,000 jobs from IRs with some going to foreginers... and over a period of who knows how long given the current global turmoil when tourism is on its decline ? Most of these jobs will provide good support for HDB price. Frankly, there's nothing to cheer about for private properties. Only 2 thousands + sold for the first half of the year. That looks gloomy. The whole situation just exposes all the hypes created by vested parties, like Ku whatever, about the IRs. I'm truly sorry for those who bought into it. For those who are still two minds about it, it should get clearer now and will be painfully clearer in the months ahead.
Forumer 5 wrote:
Yes, totally agreed. When i say "45,000 foreigners will come in" it refers to the assumption that 45,000 jobs will be created and that will create a great demand for rentals / purchase of private property. This is obviously hype as now PM says only 20,000 jobs will be created and mostly will be to singaporeans.
Forumer 6 wrote:
Sadly, that's the way property bubbles work. Yet, people continue to be sold into it with the dream that they'll make big money. To think about it more rationally, all the hypes are only based on hear-say, and some are laughably ridiculous, and yet people have committed millions of dollars on these hear says. Sigh!! The evidence that private properties are already over-priced is all there, and yet people ignore them, preferring to listen to the salesmens' talk. Sigh!!
Forumer 7 wrote:
The Bejing Olympics is another good example of a hype. Remember how the bulls shouted how this event would cause property price to shoot? Now reality said just the opposite.
Forumer 8 wrote:
Yes very true, all market hype.
Markets Performance Year-To-Date
1) Nasdaq -7.5%
2) Dow Jones -12.4%
3) FTSE -15%
4) Nikkei -15.3%
5) Kospi -17%
6) Straits Times Index -18.7%
7) Hang Seng -23.2%
KLCI -23.22%
9) Jakarta Composite -23.3%
10) Shanghai -53.6%
Forumer 9 wrote:
Cool, markets are so bad and Singapore properties still can hold. When the markets are hot again, bull run for properties prices
Forumer 10 wrote:
Usually the unusual calm before the tide is the most destructive. Imagine the tension of the recession snowballing slowly but surely, when it comes, prices will plunge like nobody business. We must be prepared for the worst.
Forumer 11 wrote:
Its not going to happen. I been in property investment since early 1990s. I can bet this time is totally different.
Price may moderate and drop slightly but to expect crash will only happen if Singapore economy totally collapses, which will hurt everyone. This is a far from possible scenario judging from the fact that the IR, Sports Hub, MBFC are sprouting out in the next 18-30 months from now.
For bargain hunters, they will be disappointed. They might get good bargains but trust me, they wont be able to get good choice units at bargain prices. Its not going to happen this time.
I am confident when the tide turns very bad, that marks a slow turning point for Singapore. Now is already a very bad time. Have you guys seen property prices drop 10% monthly ???? The worst of times are already happening now...u saw Singapore exports dropped, unemployment start to build up, slow take up of new launches etc etc...have prices dropped ?
The next time you will see will be when property prices will start to pick up again once US residential mortgage mess subsides early next year.
Forumer 12 wrote:
PM said economic turmoil likely to last untill 2009 and year after ... No, this is not the worst yet. It has just started. We'll see the worst perhaps by middle of next year or even later .. but definitely now is only the beginning of the downtrend ..
Forumer 13 wrote:
I guess you too young and never experienced what i experienced in 1980s/1990s.
Its already 1 year since the sub-prime crisis started. In the past, it takes only 2 months for property market to correct down significantly. As such, a crash is not happening. What i foresee is a slight downward trend in property prices.
The fact is that 2010 is a very exciting year for the property market in Singapore as we will be announcing the opening of the world's most expensive IR at Marina Bay Sands Resort followed by Sentosa IR. And a year later, the Sports Hub. This is apart from the F1 Grand Prix, the Marina Bay Financial Centre and our government's gigantic infrastructural projects.
So u expecting property prices to drop during these times ??? Fain Hope. From now till mid 2009 are the short window period to shop for property bargains, after which a recovery is almost certain.
Forumer 14 wrote:
It's nice for people to call me young , but actually, I've lived through both the 80s and 90s property cycles.
In the 90s for instance, the Asian Financial Crisis erupted in 1997, but it was not until mid 1998 that the big developers like Far East and City Dev came under pressure to reduce property price by as much as 40%. It'd be naive to expect price cut just after 2 months of stress, not even a distress individual seller is likely to give in within 2 months.
Although the subprime problem has been going on for a year, it's impact on the real economy has only been felt recently. Going by the official economic growth forecast and looking at the declining export fig, it'd be logical to expect the economy to worsen quite rapidly from this point. Has this message not been resoundingly emphasized by the government recently ?
By all logics, there's little fundamental to support the price surge of 50-70% during the recent years. While I agree that the IR, F1 .. will add value to the economy, I'm convinced that they've already been priced into, and beyond, the current property price. Increasingly, it's going to dawn upon people that all these hypes cannot sustain the over-priced property market.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
PM Lee Hsien Loong: Marina Bay Integrated Resorts to provide 20,000 jobs
During the National Day Rally speech yesterday, the Prime Minister said that the integrated resort at Marina Bay will provide 20,000 new jobs. But with a low unemployment rate of 2.3%, there just aren't enough Singaporeans to fill all the positions. So, more foreign talent will be needed to support the workforce.The following are forumers comments extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
More foreign talents to buy private properties. They were one of the group that move the price up. We have no enough people to fill the jobs and not enough housing too. Hurray!
Forumer 2 wrote:
Hurray? Remember the previous weeks, everyone such as Ku Swee Yong of Savillis was saying that 45,000 foreigners will come in. Now PM says its 20,000. Reduced by more than half and not all will be foreigners.
Forumer 3 wrote:
I think he is refering to 20000 foreigners will be working in our two IRs.
Forumer 4 wrote:
No, I'm positive he said 20,000 jobs from IRs with some going to foreginers... and over a period of who knows how long given the current global turmoil when tourism is on its decline ? Most of these jobs will provide good support for HDB price. Frankly, there's nothing to cheer about for private properties. Only 2 thousands + sold for the first half of the year. That looks gloomy. The whole situation just exposes all the hypes created by vested parties, like Ku whatever, about the IRs. I'm truly sorry for those who bought into it. For those who are still two minds about it, it should get clearer now and will be painfully clearer in the months ahead.
Forumer 5 wrote:
Yes, totally agreed. When i say "45,000 foreigners will come in" it refers to the assumption that 45,000 jobs will be created and that will create a great demand for rentals / purchase of private property. This is obviously hype as now PM says only 20,000 jobs will be created and mostly will be to singaporeans.
Forumer 6 wrote:
Sadly, that's the way property bubbles work. Yet, people continue to be sold into it with the dream that they'll make big money. To think about it more rationally, all the hypes are only based on hear-say, and some are laughably ridiculous, and yet people have committed millions of dollars on these hear says. Sigh!! The evidence that private properties are already over-priced is all there, and yet people ignore them, preferring to listen to the salesmens' talk. Sigh!!
Forumer 7 wrote:
The Bejing Olympics is another good example of a hype. Remember how the bulls shouted how this event would cause property price to shoot? Now reality said just the opposite.
Forumer 8 wrote:
Yes very true, all market hype.
Markets Performance Year-To-Date
1) Nasdaq -7.5%
2) Dow Jones -12.4%
3) FTSE -15%
4) Nikkei -15.3%
5) Kospi -17%
6) Straits Times Index -18.7%
7) Hang Seng -23.2%
KLCI -23.22%
9) Jakarta Composite -23.3%
10) Shanghai -53.6%
Forumer 9 wrote:
Cool, markets are so bad and Singapore properties still can hold. When the markets are hot again, bull run for properties prices
Forumer 10 wrote:
Usually the unusual calm before the tide is the most destructive. Imagine the tension of the recession snowballing slowly but surely, when it comes, prices will plunge like nobody business. We must be prepared for the worst.
Forumer 11 wrote:
Its not going to happen. I been in property investment since early 1990s. I can bet this time is totally different.
Price may moderate and drop slightly but to expect crash will only happen if Singapore economy totally collapses, which will hurt everyone. This is a far from possible scenario judging from the fact that the IR, Sports Hub, MBFC are sprouting out in the next 18-30 months from now.
For bargain hunters, they will be disappointed. They might get good bargains but trust me, they wont be able to get good choice units at bargain prices. Its not going to happen this time.
I am confident when the tide turns very bad, that marks a slow turning point for Singapore. Now is already a very bad time. Have you guys seen property prices drop 10% monthly ???? The worst of times are already happening now...u saw Singapore exports dropped, unemployment start to build up, slow take up of new launches etc etc...have prices dropped ?
The next time you will see will be when property prices will start to pick up again once US residential mortgage mess subsides early next year.
Forumer 12 wrote:
PM said economic turmoil likely to last untill 2009 and year after ... No, this is not the worst yet. It has just started. We'll see the worst perhaps by middle of next year or even later .. but definitely now is only the beginning of the downtrend ..
Forumer 13 wrote:
I guess you too young and never experienced what i experienced in 1980s/1990s.
Its already 1 year since the sub-prime crisis started. In the past, it takes only 2 months for property market to correct down significantly. As such, a crash is not happening. What i foresee is a slight downward trend in property prices.
The fact is that 2010 is a very exciting year for the property market in Singapore as we will be announcing the opening of the world's most expensive IR at Marina Bay Sands Resort followed by Sentosa IR. And a year later, the Sports Hub. This is apart from the F1 Grand Prix, the Marina Bay Financial Centre and our government's gigantic infrastructural projects.
So u expecting property prices to drop during these times ??? Fain Hope. From now till mid 2009 are the short window period to shop for property bargains, after which a recovery is almost certain.
Forumer 14 wrote:
It's nice for people to call me young , but actually, I've lived through both the 80s and 90s property cycles.
In the 90s for instance, the Asian Financial Crisis erupted in 1997, but it was not until mid 1998 that the big developers like Far East and City Dev came under pressure to reduce property price by as much as 40%. It'd be naive to expect price cut just after 2 months of stress, not even a distress individual seller is likely to give in within 2 months.
Although the subprime problem has been going on for a year, it's impact on the real economy has only been felt recently. Going by the official economic growth forecast and looking at the declining export fig, it'd be logical to expect the economy to worsen quite rapidly from this point. Has this message not been resoundingly emphasized by the government recently ?
By all logics, there's little fundamental to support the price surge of 50-70% during the recent years. While I agree that the IR, F1 .. will add value to the economy, I'm convinced that they've already been priced into, and beyond, the current property price. Increasingly, it's going to dawn upon people that all these hypes cannot sustain the over-priced property market.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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2 comments:
Don't forget 2011 is the due date for the next election.
If they do not make Singapore into 1 giant GRC, they will still have win over the electorate. To make sure that Singaporeans are somewhat happy.
To do that, they will have to pull out all stops to stimulate the economy. So by end 2009 the trough should be reached. With all the investments and stimulus coming in in 2009 and 2010 and perhaps some goodies such as reduced taxes and outright giving out money to the electorate, the economy will start to pick up by 2010. So we could see an election in Aug 2010 or latest June 2011.
Your thoughts?
http://paulhokangsang.blogspot.com
Dear Paul,
In my opinion, there's little the Singapore government can do to control the economic cycles. Singapore is after all just a small, open economy tossing in the rough seas of the current global turmoil. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has himself said during his National Day Rally Speech that the economic downturn will last to 2009 and possibly, even 2010. Who can see beyond 2010?
To ordinary folks, I'd just say spend wisely.
Best wishes
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Dear visitors:
Your comments are most welcome!
The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.
Smart Buyer :)