Saturday, August 30, 2008
About this Blog
The question is therefore who's more likely to blink first ?
The answer is obvious given the current unsustainable high property price and faltering economy.
Developers and sellers are all betting on the opening of the IRs to turn the market around by end 2009 -2010. There's a chance that they are right but slim because economic fundamentals simply cannot support the current, or as sellers hope, even higher property price.
Now here's the other scenario: World economy sinks to the bottom in 2009 - 2010, so Singapore economy feels even worse impact than now. IRs see low visitors and few profitable businesses. Properties on hold from 2006 - 2010 suddenly flood the market with very, very desperate cash-strapped developers and sellers but demand has already shrunk ..
Even developers are aware of the risk of that scenario, that's why we can expect more launches ahead to test the market. (Read: "Developers weigh odds of launches after Ghosts Month" by Business Times)
Waiting for the IRs magic in 2009 -2010 is a DO or DIE bet !
Proficient investors do not make DO or DIE bets. Why subject yourself to DO or DIE bets if you can preserve part of your capital and fight another day?
My feel is that even if the world economy is ok, there is a huge number of properties going TOP in 2010 which individuals, if cannot hold, will do sub sales at a much lower prices. This is what the developers fear most and that is precisely why Wing Tai's boss said that he cannot guarantee prices to be stable after 2010. Prices do not come down that much yet because developers are holding the launches now and TOP is about 1.5 years away. However, as the time gets near, like what you said - Sellers will have more fear and will start to dump. We see this boom / bust cycle happens again and again, time after time.
Posted by Anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Property Fire Sales: 2010 sees TOPs of properties bought at peak prices in 2007-2008
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Integrated Resorts Completion in 2009-2010 to lift Private Property Market? DO or DIE bet
The private property market is in a stalemate right now! Buyers are not biting and sellers are not willing to lower their prices.The question is therefore who's more likely to blink first ?
The answer is obvious given the current unsustainable high property price and faltering economy.
Developers and sellers are all betting on the opening of the IRs to turn the market around by end 2009 -2010. There's a chance that they are right but slim because economic fundamentals simply cannot support the current, or as sellers hope, even higher property price.
Now here's the other scenario: World economy sinks to the bottom in 2009 - 2010, so Singapore economy feels even worse impact than now. IRs see low visitors and few profitable businesses. Properties on hold from 2006 - 2010 suddenly flood the market with very, very desperate cash-strapped developers and sellers but demand has already shrunk ..
Even developers are aware of the risk of that scenario, that's why we can expect more launches ahead to test the market. (Read: "Developers weigh odds of launches after Ghosts Month" by Business Times)
Waiting for the IRs magic in 2009 -2010 is a DO or DIE bet !
Proficient investors do not make DO or DIE bets. Why subject yourself to DO or DIE bets if you can preserve part of your capital and fight another day?
My feel is that even if the world economy is ok, there is a huge number of properties going TOP in 2010 which individuals, if cannot hold, will do sub sales at a much lower prices. This is what the developers fear most and that is precisely why Wing Tai's boss said that he cannot guarantee prices to be stable after 2010. Prices do not come down that much yet because developers are holding the launches now and TOP is about 1.5 years away. However, as the time gets near, like what you said - Sellers will have more fear and will start to dump. We see this boom / bust cycle happens again and again, time after time.
Posted by Anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
Property Fire Sales: 2010 sees TOPs of properties bought at peak prices in 2007-2008
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
But people don’t like to admit they’ve made a mistake. So, when markets begin to turn against them, they imagine that the turn is just a fluke. They expect things to return to ‘normal’ quickly, not realizing that it is normal for them to make mistakes and lose their money.
When housing first began to go down, at first people didn’t believe it. They’d learned that “property always goes up,” or that “you can’t go wrong with real estate.” Naturally, they took the first signs of a downturn as a buying opportunity. Later, they realized that it was a selling opportunity – the last chance to get out before the roof collapsed.
Likewise, when banks, hedge funds and mortgage lenders began to send out alarms, the problems were thought to be temporary and modest. “Containable,” is how Hank Paulson described the first little cracks in the sub-prime debt market.
But the cracks widened. And now, some of the biggest financial edifices in the country – Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – have either already fallen down or are leaning dangerously.
Posted by anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Investment Fallacies: Property price always goes up and you can't go wrong with real estate
Boom follows bust, which follows boom. Over and over again, the same mistakes are made – but by new people.But people don’t like to admit they’ve made a mistake. So, when markets begin to turn against them, they imagine that the turn is just a fluke. They expect things to return to ‘normal’ quickly, not realizing that it is normal for them to make mistakes and lose their money.
When housing first began to go down, at first people didn’t believe it. They’d learned that “property always goes up,” or that “you can’t go wrong with real estate.” Naturally, they took the first signs of a downturn as a buying opportunity. Later, they realized that it was a selling opportunity – the last chance to get out before the roof collapsed.
Likewise, when banks, hedge funds and mortgage lenders began to send out alarms, the problems were thought to be temporary and modest. “Containable,” is how Hank Paulson described the first little cracks in the sub-prime debt market.
But the cracks widened. And now, some of the biggest financial edifices in the country – Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – have either already fallen down or are leaning dangerously.
Posted by anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Friday, August 29, 2008
About this Blog
In response, forumers at the Singapore Property Forum cautioned property buyers that it's premature to enter the property market now. Some of their views are given below:
"Look at today business time about Subsales. If you decide to buy the subsales at current price, beware that you are paying 30-100% more from the earlier buyers. They can sell below your value and still make a profit in the future. You will definitely have a big loss later. Unless you are ok with that fact, then it's fine as some of those locations are quite alright. "
".. there are always people who think they're acting ahead of the herd and when actually they have bought at still higher prices in the subsale market creating the peak price for themselves..but take note, there aren't may subsales and there aren't many such buyers around (to take over your hot potatoes) .. "
"that's why i think it's still premature to buy now ... in fact buying now means you're most likely to be right at peak of the property cycle ... kiasu will make you even more prone to suing .. like minister mah said, "let others go first, there are many more boats coming .."
"Yes, you have to be careful when you buy right now. Know the details of the project. There should be some developers able to lower their price later but you have to monitor the sentiment also. When it improves, some of the area where price is good might turn around, however, higher one might be still tough. "
"i think it's best to wait until next year .. signals to watch out are the 3 Rs: Recession, Retrenchment and Repossession .. when you hear the last R, then it's time to come out from the hiding and start property hunting. "
"You are right. The bottom is always at the time when some people turns bankrupt and repossession of properties by banks. "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Buying Property Advice: Private Property Subsales 97% Profitable: Premature to enter Private Property Market now
The Business Times reported on Tue, August 26, 2008, that 97% of the subsales in the private property market for the first seven months of this year have made profits.In response, forumers at the Singapore Property Forum cautioned property buyers that it's premature to enter the property market now. Some of their views are given below:
"Look at today business time about Subsales. If you decide to buy the subsales at current price, beware that you are paying 30-100% more from the earlier buyers. They can sell below your value and still make a profit in the future. You will definitely have a big loss later. Unless you are ok with that fact, then it's fine as some of those locations are quite alright. "
".. there are always people who think they're acting ahead of the herd and when actually they have bought at still higher prices in the subsale market creating the peak price for themselves..but take note, there aren't may subsales and there aren't many such buyers around (to take over your hot potatoes) .. "
"that's why i think it's still premature to buy now ... in fact buying now means you're most likely to be right at peak of the property cycle ... kiasu will make you even more prone to suing .. like minister mah said, "let others go first, there are many more boats coming .."
"Yes, you have to be careful when you buy right now. Know the details of the project. There should be some developers able to lower their price later but you have to monitor the sentiment also. When it improves, some of the area where price is good might turn around, however, higher one might be still tough. "
"i think it's best to wait until next year .. signals to watch out are the 3 Rs: Recession, Retrenchment and Repossession .. when you hear the last R, then it's time to come out from the hiding and start property hunting. "
"You are right. The bottom is always at the time when some people turns bankrupt and repossession of properties by banks. "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
About this Blog
News report said, however, the rebound is unlikely to last.
"There will be heavy sledding for the U.S. economy during the next couple of quarters," predicted Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group.
It's "the last hurrah for this economic cycle," said Martin Regalia, chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned the economy will be weak through the rest of 2008.
Economists believe growth will slow in the July-September quarter to a pace of around 1.5%, and will turn even weaker in the fourth quarter.
"With the rest of the world now slowing and the dollar off its lows, the U.S. will be more reliant on domestic demand in coming quarters," said Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight. "Since consumer spending is slowing down and the credit crunch is tightening its grip, it is hard to foresee another quarter with such a robust GDP headline for some time."
The effects of the housing market's collapse were evident in the GDP report, with builders cut back at an annual rate of 15.7% in the second quarter.
Businesses also trimmed spending on equipment and software in the spring. One measure of corporate profits showed companies losing ground in the second quarter. After-tax profits fell 3.8% in the spring, compared with a 1.1% increase in the first quarter.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
US Second Quarter GDP Rebound Unlikely to Last
The US GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the second quarter (April-June), its fastest pace in nearly a year, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9% pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7% growth rate. The rebound is attributed largely to strong exports.News report said, however, the rebound is unlikely to last.
"There will be heavy sledding for the U.S. economy during the next couple of quarters," predicted Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group.
It's "the last hurrah for this economic cycle," said Martin Regalia, chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned the economy will be weak through the rest of 2008.
Economists believe growth will slow in the July-September quarter to a pace of around 1.5%, and will turn even weaker in the fourth quarter.
"With the rest of the world now slowing and the dollar off its lows, the U.S. will be more reliant on domestic demand in coming quarters," said Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight. "Since consumer spending is slowing down and the credit crunch is tightening its grip, it is hard to foresee another quarter with such a robust GDP headline for some time."
The effects of the housing market's collapse were evident in the GDP report, with builders cut back at an annual rate of 15.7% in the second quarter.
Businesses also trimmed spending on equipment and software in the spring. One measure of corporate profits showed companies losing ground in the second quarter. After-tax profits fell 3.8% in the spring, compared with a 1.1% increase in the first quarter.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
About this Blog
A key contributor to the persistent high inflation is soaring housing costs. A sub-index for housing costs was up 12.5% in July 2008 from a year earlier. To this, some forumers said HDB is responsible to a large extent. Some of their views are given below:
"The median income at 2000 is SGD4030. The median income now is SGD4880. A HDB 5-room flat at 2000 is 190k, now is 330k. 2000, it is 190,000/4030 which works around 50 months. 2008, it is 330,000/4880 which works around 68 months.This means as property price goes up, the 50% of the population has to take longer time to pay up their mortgages.
So what is affordable??? On one hand, we want to control wage increment, on the other hand, we let property price increase due to the balancing act on demand and supply? How we define affordable? And how what the equation of the right timeframe over one annual income? Do not forget the other inflation hitters like food."
"Govt will explain property prices are going up because of inflation of the land value, materials and labour ............how is our salary? it should be kept low to make Singapore more competitive...........................boleh tahan?"
"I think govt promised that every singapore should able to lease (own) a low cost flat from HDB. these days, all flats are BTO and on average a 5 room flat would be from 350k to 450k and those in city are almost 500k to 700k? With minimum CPF sum increasing and high loans taken to finance these flats, what's left in our CPF account?"
"With the BTO scheme, newly-weds would have to wait 3 to 5 years, most would end up separating and breaking up since they have to live apart."
"It is very sad for us and even more sad for the future generations. With our salary rising 3 times every 30 years and HDB flats rising 10 to 20 times at the same time frame, our children will have to take a 99 year mortgage by the time they are eligible for a Sengkang or Punggol flat. Hah, then they can buy the flat and their grandchildren can continue paying the monthly installments, until the day HDB tear down the flat when the 99 year lease is up. It sound so similar to what I heard about Japan in 1991 where a man buy a house and his grandchildren still has to pay."
"Sometimes, i wonder if HDB know what a "subsidy" means.
HDB pricing difference is called a subsidy when in actual fact, there is no accounting loss in its books for flats are sold at cost plus. Petrol taxes are not reduced because it was mentioned that this subsidy will encourage the wrong ideas. A subsidy to me would be like those of Malaysia where retail prices are less than fair market prices."
May also want to read:
HDB Income Ceiling for Buying HDB Flats Not Pro-Family
HDB Resale Flats Price Index from 1990 - 2008
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
HDB Subsidies: Are HDB flats really subsidised?
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
HDB Contributes to Singapore Record High Inflation
MTI has reported that Singapore inflation rate for July 2008 has eased to 6.5% from the 7.5% in the last three months, but still at record high level.A key contributor to the persistent high inflation is soaring housing costs. A sub-index for housing costs was up 12.5% in July 2008 from a year earlier. To this, some forumers said HDB is responsible to a large extent. Some of their views are given below:
"The median income at 2000 is SGD4030. The median income now is SGD4880. A HDB 5-room flat at 2000 is 190k, now is 330k. 2000, it is 190,000/4030 which works around 50 months. 2008, it is 330,000/4880 which works around 68 months.This means as property price goes up, the 50% of the population has to take longer time to pay up their mortgages.
So what is affordable??? On one hand, we want to control wage increment, on the other hand, we let property price increase due to the balancing act on demand and supply? How we define affordable? And how what the equation of the right timeframe over one annual income? Do not forget the other inflation hitters like food."
"Govt will explain property prices are going up because of inflation of the land value, materials and labour ............how is our salary? it should be kept low to make Singapore more competitive...........................boleh tahan?"
"I think govt promised that every singapore should able to lease (own) a low cost flat from HDB. these days, all flats are BTO and on average a 5 room flat would be from 350k to 450k and those in city are almost 500k to 700k? With minimum CPF sum increasing and high loans taken to finance these flats, what's left in our CPF account?"
"With the BTO scheme, newly-weds would have to wait 3 to 5 years, most would end up separating and breaking up since they have to live apart."
"It is very sad for us and even more sad for the future generations. With our salary rising 3 times every 30 years and HDB flats rising 10 to 20 times at the same time frame, our children will have to take a 99 year mortgage by the time they are eligible for a Sengkang or Punggol flat. Hah, then they can buy the flat and their grandchildren can continue paying the monthly installments, until the day HDB tear down the flat when the 99 year lease is up. It sound so similar to what I heard about Japan in 1991 where a man buy a house and his grandchildren still has to pay."
"Sometimes, i wonder if HDB know what a "subsidy" means.
HDB pricing difference is called a subsidy when in actual fact, there is no accounting loss in its books for flats are sold at cost plus. Petrol taxes are not reduced because it was mentioned that this subsidy will encourage the wrong ideas. A subsidy to me would be like those of Malaysia where retail prices are less than fair market prices."
May also want to read:
HDB Income Ceiling for Buying HDB Flats Not Pro-Family
HDB Resale Flats Price Index from 1990 - 2008
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
HDB Subsidies: Are HDB flats really subsidised?
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
CapitaLand’s shares fell to $4.22 today - its lowest level in two years due largely to heavy institutional selling.
‘We are inclined to be less optimistic than CapitaLand’s management who expect the Singapore residential market to remain flat this year,’ reported Morgan Stanley.
The signal is indeed very bearish for the property market.
Property firms and property developers have however continued to ascertain the market that property price will stay firm. Mr John Stinson, DTZ's regional director of sales and investments for Asia-Pacific's capital markets said, "While the growth in prices may slow, there is unlikely to be a significant fall in property prices here."
To this, a forumer in the Singapore Property Forum responded:
"When property firms or property agents or developers tell you property price ain't coming down, note they're really getting nervous .. just look at how property shares are plunging .. do you want to believe these people or the investors? Institutional investors are having a big sell-off for the property counters, the signal is clear. "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Property Funds Bail Out of Regional Property Stocks: Analysts not optimistic that property price will stay firm
Property funds are bailing out of the regional property stocks amid an increasing bearish outlook for the sector, reported Business Times - 26 Aug 2008.CapitaLand’s shares fell to $4.22 today - its lowest level in two years due largely to heavy institutional selling.
‘We are inclined to be less optimistic than CapitaLand’s management who expect the Singapore residential market to remain flat this year,’ reported Morgan Stanley.
The signal is indeed very bearish for the property market.
Property firms and property developers have however continued to ascertain the market that property price will stay firm. Mr John Stinson, DTZ's regional director of sales and investments for Asia-Pacific's capital markets said, "While the growth in prices may slow, there is unlikely to be a significant fall in property prices here."
To this, a forumer in the Singapore Property Forum responded:
"When property firms or property agents or developers tell you property price ain't coming down, note they're really getting nervous .. just look at how property shares are plunging .. do you want to believe these people or the investors? Institutional investors are having a big sell-off for the property counters, the signal is clear. "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Saturday, August 23, 2008
About this Blog
May also want to read:
HDB Contributes to Singapore Record High Inflation
HDB Housing Subsidies: Is HDB Housing really subsidised?
HDB Resale Price Index from 1990 - 2008
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
HDB Income Ceiling to buy HDB Flats Not Pro-Family
During his National Day Rally speech, the Prime Minister spent a great deal of time talking about the government's latest pro-family policies but overlooked something very pertinent to setting up a family, that's having a place call home first. HDB household income ceiling of $8000 for purchase of the 1st HDB flat is simply too low especially at current high prices. Most couples will find it necessary to work for five years or more first in order to save enough to set up their home. This reduces the time available for young couples to have children. Why not remove (or at least increase) the HDB income ceiling for first time home buyers, so that all young couples regardless of income are able to buy a home at a subsidised rate and enjoy subsidised home loans ? This would serve as an incentive for young couples to start their family sooner.May also want to read:
HDB Contributes to Singapore Record High Inflation
HDB Housing Subsidies: Is HDB Housing really subsidised?
HDB Resale Price Index from 1990 - 2008
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Friday, August 22, 2008
About this Blog
Where do people really believe property prices are headed? You can't trust what they say (because of vested interests), so just follow the money.
I believe minimal property price fall of 10% so far does not reflect the true market weakening. This is because of seller's hope that things will turnaround soon.
The true sentiment is exposed in the following 'money signs':
1. Low Volume
The lack of buying proves that investors don't believe a price rise is assured, nor the likelihood/magnitude worth the risk.
Genuine home buyers also opting for HDB over Private Property simply because it private property is overpriced and unaffordable.
2. Crushing fall of developer shares
Capitaland (halved)
Was $8.50
Now $4.41
Kepland (worse than half)
Was $8.80
Now $3.86
CityDev (down 41%)
Was $17
Now $10.14
3. Loss of confidence amongst developers
No longer dare to bid high at land sales
No longer willing to pay high for enbloc.
Giving discounts.
Holding back launches
Posted by Ann at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Where Are Property Prices Headed ? Follow the money
"Where your treasure is, there your heart will be also."Where do people really believe property prices are headed? You can't trust what they say (because of vested interests), so just follow the money.
I believe minimal property price fall of 10% so far does not reflect the true market weakening. This is because of seller's hope that things will turnaround soon.
The true sentiment is exposed in the following 'money signs':
1. Low Volume
The lack of buying proves that investors don't believe a price rise is assured, nor the likelihood/magnitude worth the risk.
Genuine home buyers also opting for HDB over Private Property simply because it private property is overpriced and unaffordable.
2. Crushing fall of developer shares
Capitaland (halved)
Was $8.50
Now $4.41
Kepland (worse than half)
Was $8.80
Now $3.86
CityDev (down 41%)
Was $17
Now $10.14
3. Loss of confidence amongst developers
No longer dare to bid high at land sales
No longer willing to pay high for enbloc.
Giving discounts.
Holding back launches
Posted by Ann at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
About this Blog
In time of high inflationary pressure like this, the skyhigh construction cost alone is enough to push up further the property prices ....
Bear replied:
To go on and on talking about how the skyhigh construction cost alone is enough to push up further the ppty prices shows your total self-centredness, thinking that all buyers must buy just because you think they must. Here's the truth, skyhigh construction costs work against the developers first and foremost, making it even more expensive for them to hold their unsold inventory. Here's another truth, more than 90% Singaporeans already own their homes so there really aren't many "must' buy people around. So while developers may be able to hold for a year or 2, most buyers really can wait indefinitely. This is the true picture that most buyers themselves have missed.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Inflation Impact on Property Price: Two-edged Sword
Bull said:In time of high inflationary pressure like this, the skyhigh construction cost alone is enough to push up further the property prices ....
Bear replied:
To go on and on talking about how the skyhigh construction cost alone is enough to push up further the ppty prices shows your total self-centredness, thinking that all buyers must buy just because you think they must. Here's the truth, skyhigh construction costs work against the developers first and foremost, making it even more expensive for them to hold their unsold inventory. Here's another truth, more than 90% Singaporeans already own their homes so there really aren't many "must' buy people around. So while developers may be able to hold for a year or 2, most buyers really can wait indefinitely. This is the true picture that most buyers themselves have missed.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
Yes, I totally agree Singapore economy will slow down, but it's not collapsing like what we experienced in the 1998 Asian financial crisis. That is the main point that most people have missed. Economy slowdown will only impact stock market, not "real estate".
Bear:
Whether this financial crisis ( US Subprime Crisis )will cost the property market more than the 1998 Asian financial crisis, it's not for you or me to say, so don't talk like if you say it's not going to cause the kind of collapse as in 1998 then, it's not going to. Frankly, I don't know. What I do know is that this crisis has affected the world, it's going to last longer than the Asian financial crisis and we've much more property supply in the pipeline than 1998. To insist that the economy slowdown will only impact stock market, not "real estate", is really insulting the intelligence of people.
Bull:
To say that the US subprime crisis has impacted the world is an overstatement. That's only the western media tactic to pull down the east economy along with them. China still projects a double digit growth, so does Singapore for conservatively 4% next year. Indonesia is booming and expected to reach back its pre-Asian financial crisis economy glory soon. Middle Eastern countries are explosive, so does Russia and other emerging countries in America Latin. We are not insulting your intelligence, just try to remind you not to overestimate it.
Bear:
China, Indonesia, India.. are all experiencing historical high inflation as a result of weakening US dollar, if not completely at least partly. This will eventually have impact on growth, though to lesser degree than Japan and Europe. I think growth forecast for China has been reduced to single digit. Oil-producing countries always stand to gain but Singapore is an oil importer. The key point I'd like to emphasize is that the Singapore government has already told its people to be prepared for a downturn, it's wise to do so. One must understand that when even the government becomes naysayers, of which they're not inclined to do so because such cautious talks deplete investors' confidence, then there's got to be some really serious problem brewing ahead. PM Lee himself, for instance, has said that this downturn is likely to last till next year and possibly the year after. MPs and ministers have spent the entire national day season telling people to spend prudently. Anybody who advise otherwise are clearly doing it for their own vested interest.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Economy to Slow Down due to US Subprime Crisis: Will property price crash like1998 Asian Financial Crisis
Bull:Yes, I totally agree Singapore economy will slow down, but it's not collapsing like what we experienced in the 1998 Asian financial crisis. That is the main point that most people have missed. Economy slowdown will only impact stock market, not "real estate".
Bear:
Whether this financial crisis ( US Subprime Crisis )will cost the property market more than the 1998 Asian financial crisis, it's not for you or me to say, so don't talk like if you say it's not going to cause the kind of collapse as in 1998 then, it's not going to. Frankly, I don't know. What I do know is that this crisis has affected the world, it's going to last longer than the Asian financial crisis and we've much more property supply in the pipeline than 1998. To insist that the economy slowdown will only impact stock market, not "real estate", is really insulting the intelligence of people.
Bull:
To say that the US subprime crisis has impacted the world is an overstatement. That's only the western media tactic to pull down the east economy along with them. China still projects a double digit growth, so does Singapore for conservatively 4% next year. Indonesia is booming and expected to reach back its pre-Asian financial crisis economy glory soon. Middle Eastern countries are explosive, so does Russia and other emerging countries in America Latin. We are not insulting your intelligence, just try to remind you not to overestimate it.
Bear:
China, Indonesia, India.. are all experiencing historical high inflation as a result of weakening US dollar, if not completely at least partly. This will eventually have impact on growth, though to lesser degree than Japan and Europe. I think growth forecast for China has been reduced to single digit. Oil-producing countries always stand to gain but Singapore is an oil importer. The key point I'd like to emphasize is that the Singapore government has already told its people to be prepared for a downturn, it's wise to do so. One must understand that when even the government becomes naysayers, of which they're not inclined to do so because such cautious talks deplete investors' confidence, then there's got to be some really serious problem brewing ahead. PM Lee himself, for instance, has said that this downturn is likely to last till next year and possibly the year after. MPs and ministers have spent the entire national day season telling people to spend prudently. Anybody who advise otherwise are clearly doing it for their own vested interest.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
forget about prices falling anymore
Buyer:
GREED tactic of property agents
Agent:
last chance
Buyer:
FEAR tactic of property agents
Agent:
buy if you are rich
Buyer:
INSULT tactic of property agents. Never want to call agents low beings but can I help it ?
Agent:
Don't buy if you have no money.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Agents Tactics: Greed, Fear and Insult
Agent:forget about prices falling anymore
Buyer:
GREED tactic of property agents
Agent:
last chance
Buyer:
FEAR tactic of property agents
Agent:
buy if you are rich
Buyer:
INSULT tactic of property agents. Never want to call agents low beings but can I help it ?
Agent:
Don't buy if you have no money.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
About this Blog
The fundamental case for property investing in the early 1990s was predicated on the rise of Singapore domestic demand. With economic stability and increased purchasing power built up over preceding years, it was time for asset enhancement in the 1990s. Young Singaporeans were being urged to marry and population control and immigration policies were being revised, adding to the demand for housing. Households were becoming increasingly double-income, increasing the purchasing power for big-ticket items. CPF balances were rising in-step with incomes, providing the financing means for purchasing expensive private property.
The sentimental case for property investing had been built up over the years. Since independence, the government had been promoting home ownership as a crucial tenet of nation building, and a huge majority of Singaporeans (~80-90%) owned the apartments they stayed in (mainly HDB). Hence increasingly over the years, property was seen as a good investment as prices were well-supported by the abovementioned government stand towards home ownership, the scarcity nature of Singapore property (the supply side), and perceived continued economic growth and stability (the demand side). Demand also trended towards more expensive private housing as people strove to upgrade their lifestyles. Many fellow Singaporeans will remember the Singapore dream built on the material five Cs: career/cash, credit cards, car, condominium, country club membership. Hence snob appeal and social aspirations accounted for an additional component of property demand meant for consumption.
Property as a comparative investing instrument was superior to other asset classes. There were few avenues for the less-educated to put their money: bonds had never been an Asian mass-market instrument, there was mass distrust of stocks due to their volatility (the market had shot up in 1993 and then dived back down in 1994), and money deposit rates were low. This also meant that housing loan rates were low (6% or less) and hence money was cheap. The unique standing of property as the only main investment instrument that could draw on the bulk of CPF funds enhanced its appeal; people tended not to think of it as "real money".
Given the above factors, property purchasing for consumption and investment soon turned into speculative buying. Stories of people buying an apartment for $500,000 and selling it for $700,000 a year later were part of the popular folklore. One apt description was that "people are buying property like groceries". This, of course, refers to the particular segment of property sales known as sub-sales, where people buy a property and then sell it off even before completion --- the most direct measure of speculative activity. At the height of the mania in the mid-1990s, there were the much-publicised midnight queues preceding condominium launches and the peaking of the highly reliable contrarian index known as the "market/coffeeshop auntie/uncle - buying, selling and recommending property" indicator.
All segments of the residential market were booming, including newbuilds, resales, public (HDB) and private housing (condominiums). From 1986 to 1996, the private residential price index rose by about 440%. About two-thirds of this gain was in the early 1990s up to 1996. See below for a graphical representation. There was a big merry-go-round as sellers became buyers of other properties, whose sellers then sourced for new residences. Over 1992-2002, 58% of the 3-million population changed homes. Among private homeowners, it was almost 70%. This created an upward spiral of property prices that was exacerbated by the speculative elements.
In 1996 the government introduced regulations to cool property speculation, which included heavy taxes on profits made from property sold within three years of purchase --- a measure targeted at property speculators. It had to end somewhere. Rocketing property prices were increasing the costs of living, driving some citizens out of Singapore and decreasing its long-term business competitiveness. The private residential property market prices collapsed; the end of the bull market was confirmed by the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis that destroyed foreign demand drivers from the ASEAN region. With the exception of a minor mini-rally in 2000, private housing prices had dropped 30-40% by 2003, since they peaked in 2Q96. The HDB resales market was better although it was never to reach the heights of 1996, primarily because the government was careful about its impact on ordinary, less well-off Singaporeans.
Still, the damage had been done. The term "negative equity" is used to describe a situation where the difference of the investment's market value and the debt incurred in financing it is negative --- a predicament that many Singaporeans have been stuck in. The plunge in residential-property prices also had an impact on private consumption - fewer owners were able to withdraw equity from their homes to borrow against the increase in value to finance other consumption. As a result of heavy investments in property, Singaporeans are asset-rich and cash-poor, even counting their CPF retirement money. It is an example of how investments based on solid fundamentals can turn into speculative buying egged on by peer pressure to "make money while it lasts"; when the primary driver is sentiment and liquidity rather than fundamentals, it can be prone to sudden drying of liquidity that causes prices to plunge. In this case, the reversing of government policy towards controlling asset inflation just happened to be the catalyst that caused the U-turning of residential property prices. Even if it had not taken place, the hit would still have been suffered in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It was a disaster to happen, and as always, it was one that was precipitated by human envy and greed, in my view.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Boom in the 90s: Why did Singaporeans become asset-rich and cash-poor
Nowadays, not a day passes without the papers reporting bullish news of prospective property deals; some argue that the residential property market is in the beginning of a new secular boom that could spread to the lower-end housing markets while others are significantly more cautious and cynical. In both camps the comparison is inevitably done with the property bull market of the early 1990s, when this asset class reached speculative heights and ultimately became a bubble that was pricked by consecutive blows of government regulatory measures and regional political trouble.The fundamental case for property investing in the early 1990s was predicated on the rise of Singapore domestic demand. With economic stability and increased purchasing power built up over preceding years, it was time for asset enhancement in the 1990s. Young Singaporeans were being urged to marry and population control and immigration policies were being revised, adding to the demand for housing. Households were becoming increasingly double-income, increasing the purchasing power for big-ticket items. CPF balances were rising in-step with incomes, providing the financing means for purchasing expensive private property.
The sentimental case for property investing had been built up over the years. Since independence, the government had been promoting home ownership as a crucial tenet of nation building, and a huge majority of Singaporeans (~80-90%) owned the apartments they stayed in (mainly HDB). Hence increasingly over the years, property was seen as a good investment as prices were well-supported by the abovementioned government stand towards home ownership, the scarcity nature of Singapore property (the supply side), and perceived continued economic growth and stability (the demand side). Demand also trended towards more expensive private housing as people strove to upgrade their lifestyles. Many fellow Singaporeans will remember the Singapore dream built on the material five Cs: career/cash, credit cards, car, condominium, country club membership. Hence snob appeal and social aspirations accounted for an additional component of property demand meant for consumption.
Property as a comparative investing instrument was superior to other asset classes. There were few avenues for the less-educated to put their money: bonds had never been an Asian mass-market instrument, there was mass distrust of stocks due to their volatility (the market had shot up in 1993 and then dived back down in 1994), and money deposit rates were low. This also meant that housing loan rates were low (6% or less) and hence money was cheap. The unique standing of property as the only main investment instrument that could draw on the bulk of CPF funds enhanced its appeal; people tended not to think of it as "real money".
Given the above factors, property purchasing for consumption and investment soon turned into speculative buying. Stories of people buying an apartment for $500,000 and selling it for $700,000 a year later were part of the popular folklore. One apt description was that "people are buying property like groceries". This, of course, refers to the particular segment of property sales known as sub-sales, where people buy a property and then sell it off even before completion --- the most direct measure of speculative activity. At the height of the mania in the mid-1990s, there were the much-publicised midnight queues preceding condominium launches and the peaking of the highly reliable contrarian index known as the "market/coffeeshop auntie/uncle - buying, selling and recommending property" indicator.
All segments of the residential market were booming, including newbuilds, resales, public (HDB) and private housing (condominiums). From 1986 to 1996, the private residential price index rose by about 440%. About two-thirds of this gain was in the early 1990s up to 1996. See below for a graphical representation. There was a big merry-go-round as sellers became buyers of other properties, whose sellers then sourced for new residences. Over 1992-2002, 58% of the 3-million population changed homes. Among private homeowners, it was almost 70%. This created an upward spiral of property prices that was exacerbated by the speculative elements.
In 1996 the government introduced regulations to cool property speculation, which included heavy taxes on profits made from property sold within three years of purchase --- a measure targeted at property speculators. It had to end somewhere. Rocketing property prices were increasing the costs of living, driving some citizens out of Singapore and decreasing its long-term business competitiveness. The private residential property market prices collapsed; the end of the bull market was confirmed by the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis that destroyed foreign demand drivers from the ASEAN region. With the exception of a minor mini-rally in 2000, private housing prices had dropped 30-40% by 2003, since they peaked in 2Q96. The HDB resales market was better although it was never to reach the heights of 1996, primarily because the government was careful about its impact on ordinary, less well-off Singaporeans.
Still, the damage had been done. The term "negative equity" is used to describe a situation where the difference of the investment's market value and the debt incurred in financing it is negative --- a predicament that many Singaporeans have been stuck in. The plunge in residential-property prices also had an impact on private consumption - fewer owners were able to withdraw equity from their homes to borrow against the increase in value to finance other consumption. As a result of heavy investments in property, Singaporeans are asset-rich and cash-poor, even counting their CPF retirement money. It is an example of how investments based on solid fundamentals can turn into speculative buying egged on by peer pressure to "make money while it lasts"; when the primary driver is sentiment and liquidity rather than fundamentals, it can be prone to sudden drying of liquidity that causes prices to plunge. In this case, the reversing of government policy towards controlling asset inflation just happened to be the catalyst that caused the U-turning of residential property prices. Even if it had not taken place, the hit would still have been suffered in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It was a disaster to happen, and as always, it was one that was precipitated by human envy and greed, in my view.
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
While improving on June's 10.6% and May's 10.5% fall, the latest contraction is seen as confirmation that factories here will not escape a widening global slowdown that was sparked off by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
There was little comfort for decoupling theorists, who had hoped that China, India and other growth engines would prove resilient enough to chart an independent path for emerging economies. While local exports to China, Indonesia and other emerging economies bounced back last month from earlier falls, they proved insufficient to offset the large drag from Europe and the US.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Economy may head for recession as Exports Fell by 5.7% in July
Continuing their downward trend, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrank by 5.7% in July as the shipment of electronic goods continued to fall. This followed a 10.5% fall in May and an 11% fall in June. Some economists are predicting a technical recession after the economy grew just 2.1% in Q2 - the slowest growth in five quarters, and following a revised 6.9 per cent pace in Q1. A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.While improving on June's 10.6% and May's 10.5% fall, the latest contraction is seen as confirmation that factories here will not escape a widening global slowdown that was sparked off by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
There was little comfort for decoupling theorists, who had hoped that China, India and other growth engines would prove resilient enough to chart an independent path for emerging economies. While local exports to China, Indonesia and other emerging economies bounced back last month from earlier falls, they proved insufficient to offset the large drag from Europe and the US.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Monday, August 18, 2008
About this Blog
The following are forumers comments extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
More foreign talents to buy private properties. They were one of the group that move the price up. We have no enough people to fill the jobs and not enough housing too. Hurray!
Forumer 2 wrote:
Hurray? Remember the previous weeks, everyone such as Ku Swee Yong of Savillis was saying that 45,000 foreigners will come in. Now PM says its 20,000. Reduced by more than half and not all will be foreigners.
Forumer 3 wrote:
I think he is refering to 20000 foreigners will be working in our two IRs.
Forumer 4 wrote:
No, I'm positive he said 20,000 jobs from IRs with some going to foreginers... and over a period of who knows how long given the current global turmoil when tourism is on its decline ? Most of these jobs will provide good support for HDB price. Frankly, there's nothing to cheer about for private properties. Only 2 thousands + sold for the first half of the year. That looks gloomy. The whole situation just exposes all the hypes created by vested parties, like Ku whatever, about the IRs. I'm truly sorry for those who bought into it. For those who are still two minds about it, it should get clearer now and will be painfully clearer in the months ahead.
Forumer 5 wrote:
Yes, totally agreed. When i say "45,000 foreigners will come in" it refers to the assumption that 45,000 jobs will be created and that will create a great demand for rentals / purchase of private property. This is obviously hype as now PM says only 20,000 jobs will be created and mostly will be to singaporeans.
Forumer 6 wrote:
Sadly, that's the way property bubbles work. Yet, people continue to be sold into it with the dream that they'll make big money. To think about it more rationally, all the hypes are only based on hear-say, and some are laughably ridiculous, and yet people have committed millions of dollars on these hear says. Sigh!! The evidence that private properties are already over-priced is all there, and yet people ignore them, preferring to listen to the salesmens' talk. Sigh!!
Forumer 7 wrote:
The Bejing Olympics is another good example of a hype. Remember how the bulls shouted how this event would cause property price to shoot? Now reality said just the opposite.
Forumer 8 wrote:
Yes very true, all market hype.
Markets Performance Year-To-Date
1) Nasdaq -7.5%
2) Dow Jones -12.4%
3) FTSE -15%
4) Nikkei -15.3%
5) Kospi -17%
6) Straits Times Index -18.7%
7) Hang Seng -23.2%
KLCI -23.22%
9) Jakarta Composite -23.3%
10) Shanghai -53.6%
Forumer 9 wrote:
Cool, markets are so bad and Singapore properties still can hold. When the markets are hot again, bull run for properties prices
Forumer 10 wrote:
Usually the unusual calm before the tide is the most destructive. Imagine the tension of the recession snowballing slowly but surely, when it comes, prices will plunge like nobody business. We must be prepared for the worst.
Forumer 11 wrote:
Its not going to happen. I been in property investment since early 1990s. I can bet this time is totally different.
Price may moderate and drop slightly but to expect crash will only happen if Singapore economy totally collapses, which will hurt everyone. This is a far from possible scenario judging from the fact that the IR, Sports Hub, MBFC are sprouting out in the next 18-30 months from now.
For bargain hunters, they will be disappointed. They might get good bargains but trust me, they wont be able to get good choice units at bargain prices. Its not going to happen this time.
I am confident when the tide turns very bad, that marks a slow turning point for Singapore. Now is already a very bad time. Have you guys seen property prices drop 10% monthly ???? The worst of times are already happening now...u saw Singapore exports dropped, unemployment start to build up, slow take up of new launches etc etc...have prices dropped ?
The next time you will see will be when property prices will start to pick up again once US residential mortgage mess subsides early next year.
Forumer 12 wrote:
PM said economic turmoil likely to last untill 2009 and year after ... No, this is not the worst yet. It has just started. We'll see the worst perhaps by middle of next year or even later .. but definitely now is only the beginning of the downtrend ..
Forumer 13 wrote:
I guess you too young and never experienced what i experienced in 1980s/1990s.
Its already 1 year since the sub-prime crisis started. In the past, it takes only 2 months for property market to correct down significantly. As such, a crash is not happening. What i foresee is a slight downward trend in property prices.
The fact is that 2010 is a very exciting year for the property market in Singapore as we will be announcing the opening of the world's most expensive IR at Marina Bay Sands Resort followed by Sentosa IR. And a year later, the Sports Hub. This is apart from the F1 Grand Prix, the Marina Bay Financial Centre and our government's gigantic infrastructural projects.
So u expecting property prices to drop during these times ??? Fain Hope. From now till mid 2009 are the short window period to shop for property bargains, after which a recovery is almost certain.
Forumer 14 wrote:
It's nice for people to call me young , but actually, I've lived through both the 80s and 90s property cycles.
In the 90s for instance, the Asian Financial Crisis erupted in 1997, but it was not until mid 1998 that the big developers like Far East and City Dev came under pressure to reduce property price by as much as 40%. It'd be naive to expect price cut just after 2 months of stress, not even a distress individual seller is likely to give in within 2 months.
Although the subprime problem has been going on for a year, it's impact on the real economy has only been felt recently. Going by the official economic growth forecast and looking at the declining export fig, it'd be logical to expect the economy to worsen quite rapidly from this point. Has this message not been resoundingly emphasized by the government recently ?
By all logics, there's little fundamental to support the price surge of 50-70% during the recent years. While I agree that the IR, F1 .. will add value to the economy, I'm convinced that they've already been priced into, and beyond, the current property price. Increasingly, it's going to dawn upon people that all these hypes cannot sustain the over-priced property market.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
PM Lee Hsien Loong: Marina Bay Integrated Resorts to provide 20,000 jobs
During the National Day Rally speech yesterday, the Prime Minister said that the integrated resort at Marina Bay will provide 20,000 new jobs. But with a low unemployment rate of 2.3%, there just aren't enough Singaporeans to fill all the positions. So, more foreign talent will be needed to support the workforce.The following are forumers comments extracted from the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
More foreign talents to buy private properties. They were one of the group that move the price up. We have no enough people to fill the jobs and not enough housing too. Hurray!
Forumer 2 wrote:
Hurray? Remember the previous weeks, everyone such as Ku Swee Yong of Savillis was saying that 45,000 foreigners will come in. Now PM says its 20,000. Reduced by more than half and not all will be foreigners.
Forumer 3 wrote:
I think he is refering to 20000 foreigners will be working in our two IRs.
Forumer 4 wrote:
No, I'm positive he said 20,000 jobs from IRs with some going to foreginers... and over a period of who knows how long given the current global turmoil when tourism is on its decline ? Most of these jobs will provide good support for HDB price. Frankly, there's nothing to cheer about for private properties. Only 2 thousands + sold for the first half of the year. That looks gloomy. The whole situation just exposes all the hypes created by vested parties, like Ku whatever, about the IRs. I'm truly sorry for those who bought into it. For those who are still two minds about it, it should get clearer now and will be painfully clearer in the months ahead.
Forumer 5 wrote:
Yes, totally agreed. When i say "45,000 foreigners will come in" it refers to the assumption that 45,000 jobs will be created and that will create a great demand for rentals / purchase of private property. This is obviously hype as now PM says only 20,000 jobs will be created and mostly will be to singaporeans.
Forumer 6 wrote:
Sadly, that's the way property bubbles work. Yet, people continue to be sold into it with the dream that they'll make big money. To think about it more rationally, all the hypes are only based on hear-say, and some are laughably ridiculous, and yet people have committed millions of dollars on these hear says. Sigh!! The evidence that private properties are already over-priced is all there, and yet people ignore them, preferring to listen to the salesmens' talk. Sigh!!
Forumer 7 wrote:
The Bejing Olympics is another good example of a hype. Remember how the bulls shouted how this event would cause property price to shoot? Now reality said just the opposite.
Forumer 8 wrote:
Yes very true, all market hype.
Markets Performance Year-To-Date
1) Nasdaq -7.5%
2) Dow Jones -12.4%
3) FTSE -15%
4) Nikkei -15.3%
5) Kospi -17%
6) Straits Times Index -18.7%
7) Hang Seng -23.2%
KLCI -23.22%
9) Jakarta Composite -23.3%
10) Shanghai -53.6%
Forumer 9 wrote:
Cool, markets are so bad and Singapore properties still can hold. When the markets are hot again, bull run for properties prices
Forumer 10 wrote:
Usually the unusual calm before the tide is the most destructive. Imagine the tension of the recession snowballing slowly but surely, when it comes, prices will plunge like nobody business. We must be prepared for the worst.
Forumer 11 wrote:
Its not going to happen. I been in property investment since early 1990s. I can bet this time is totally different.
Price may moderate and drop slightly but to expect crash will only happen if Singapore economy totally collapses, which will hurt everyone. This is a far from possible scenario judging from the fact that the IR, Sports Hub, MBFC are sprouting out in the next 18-30 months from now.
For bargain hunters, they will be disappointed. They might get good bargains but trust me, they wont be able to get good choice units at bargain prices. Its not going to happen this time.
I am confident when the tide turns very bad, that marks a slow turning point for Singapore. Now is already a very bad time. Have you guys seen property prices drop 10% monthly ???? The worst of times are already happening now...u saw Singapore exports dropped, unemployment start to build up, slow take up of new launches etc etc...have prices dropped ?
The next time you will see will be when property prices will start to pick up again once US residential mortgage mess subsides early next year.
Forumer 12 wrote:
PM said economic turmoil likely to last untill 2009 and year after ... No, this is not the worst yet. It has just started. We'll see the worst perhaps by middle of next year or even later .. but definitely now is only the beginning of the downtrend ..
Forumer 13 wrote:
I guess you too young and never experienced what i experienced in 1980s/1990s.
Its already 1 year since the sub-prime crisis started. In the past, it takes only 2 months for property market to correct down significantly. As such, a crash is not happening. What i foresee is a slight downward trend in property prices.
The fact is that 2010 is a very exciting year for the property market in Singapore as we will be announcing the opening of the world's most expensive IR at Marina Bay Sands Resort followed by Sentosa IR. And a year later, the Sports Hub. This is apart from the F1 Grand Prix, the Marina Bay Financial Centre and our government's gigantic infrastructural projects.
So u expecting property prices to drop during these times ??? Fain Hope. From now till mid 2009 are the short window period to shop for property bargains, after which a recovery is almost certain.
Forumer 14 wrote:
It's nice for people to call me young , but actually, I've lived through both the 80s and 90s property cycles.
In the 90s for instance, the Asian Financial Crisis erupted in 1997, but it was not until mid 1998 that the big developers like Far East and City Dev came under pressure to reduce property price by as much as 40%. It'd be naive to expect price cut just after 2 months of stress, not even a distress individual seller is likely to give in within 2 months.
Although the subprime problem has been going on for a year, it's impact on the real economy has only been felt recently. Going by the official economic growth forecast and looking at the declining export fig, it'd be logical to expect the economy to worsen quite rapidly from this point. Has this message not been resoundingly emphasized by the government recently ?
By all logics, there's little fundamental to support the price surge of 50-70% during the recent years. While I agree that the IR, F1 .. will add value to the economy, I'm convinced that they've already been priced into, and beyond, the current property price. Increasingly, it's going to dawn upon people that all these hypes cannot sustain the over-priced property market.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Sunday, August 17, 2008
About this Blog
Developers, however, sold 897 new private homes in July, 12% more than in June (But a far cry from the 77% jump between May and June). Property consultants also predicted that rising sales will be reversed this month, partly due to July being the Chinese unlucky 'Hungry Ghost' month, and partly, the increasing dismal in the global economy.
July's sales were boosted by sales from four large-scale suburban projects that together accounted for almost two-thirds of the whole month's deals. Livia in Pasir Ris saw 301 apartments taken up, at a median price of $671 psf. Of these, four crossed the $750 psf mark, but the rest were well within the $500 to $750 psf range. Clover by the Park in Bishan sold 100 units at a median price of $753 psf, down slightly from the median $765 psf it had fetched in June. And Kovan Residences in Kovan Road sold 87 units at a median price of $882 psf - just below its $887 psf in June - while Beacon Heights in St Michael's Road sold 61 units at a median price of $865 psf. In the mid-tier segment, Parc Sophia in Dhoby Ghaut was the best performer, selling 25 units at a median price of $1,503 psf. CapitaLand's Wharf Residences near Robertson Quay sold 23 units at a median price of $1,506.
Generally, prices have come under pressure from the gloom in the market and are starting to dip, consultants said. The lowest transacted price in the suburban region fell 23 per cent last month from June, while the lowest price in the central region fell 7 per cent, noted Dr Chua Yang Liang, Jones Lang LaSalle's head of South-east Asia research. He said buyers of suburban projects are probably comfortable with paying $650 to $850 psf right now, while those looking for well-located city-fringe homes have budgets of $850 to $1,000 psf. Sales were dismal in the high-end segment, with only eight units - less than 1 per cent of total sales - transacted above $3,000 psf. At the height of the property fever in July last year, 217 units fetched more than $3,000 psf, accounting for more than 15% of the total units sold then.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Private Property Price Slipped in July 2008 but July Sales 12% more than June
Prices of properties sold in July slipped. Close to nine out of every 10 homes sold last month were suburban units that cost $1,000 per sq ft (psf) or less. No homes were sold above $4,000 psf for the second consecutive month. This trend is likely to continue, property consultants said, as persistent caution in the high-end market is causing developers to delay expensive launches. Even then, developers continued to launch more units across the board than they were able to sell last month, adding to the inventory of unsold homes, observed Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.Developers, however, sold 897 new private homes in July, 12% more than in June (But a far cry from the 77% jump between May and June). Property consultants also predicted that rising sales will be reversed this month, partly due to July being the Chinese unlucky 'Hungry Ghost' month, and partly, the increasing dismal in the global economy.
July's sales were boosted by sales from four large-scale suburban projects that together accounted for almost two-thirds of the whole month's deals. Livia in Pasir Ris saw 301 apartments taken up, at a median price of $671 psf. Of these, four crossed the $750 psf mark, but the rest were well within the $500 to $750 psf range. Clover by the Park in Bishan sold 100 units at a median price of $753 psf, down slightly from the median $765 psf it had fetched in June. And Kovan Residences in Kovan Road sold 87 units at a median price of $882 psf - just below its $887 psf in June - while Beacon Heights in St Michael's Road sold 61 units at a median price of $865 psf. In the mid-tier segment, Parc Sophia in Dhoby Ghaut was the best performer, selling 25 units at a median price of $1,503 psf. CapitaLand's Wharf Residences near Robertson Quay sold 23 units at a median price of $1,506.
Generally, prices have come under pressure from the gloom in the market and are starting to dip, consultants said. The lowest transacted price in the suburban region fell 23 per cent last month from June, while the lowest price in the central region fell 7 per cent, noted Dr Chua Yang Liang, Jones Lang LaSalle's head of South-east Asia research. He said buyers of suburban projects are probably comfortable with paying $650 to $850 psf right now, while those looking for well-located city-fringe homes have budgets of $850 to $1,000 psf. Sales were dismal in the high-end segment, with only eight units - less than 1 per cent of total sales - transacted above $3,000 psf. At the height of the property fever in July last year, 217 units fetched more than $3,000 psf, accounting for more than 15% of the total units sold then.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
CapitaLand reported a 43.5% drop in its Q2 profit, City Developments a 15.1% drop and Keppel Land a 16.4% drop.
Most listed developers have warned that the global slowdown and weakening market could continue to hit their business in the Q3 and Q4 of 2008. Even the most upbeat are only 'cautiously optimistic'.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry's latest quarterly economic survey showed there are increasing signs that segments within services - including the retail trade and hotels - are showing slower growth.
Property stocks with exposure to those sectors - such as CapitaLand, CityDev and UOL Group, to name just a few - could see contributions from those divisions drop.
As for the residential market in Singaporee, a number of banks including Citigroup, Credit Sussie, Barclay have forecasted a drop in prices of as much as 40%; which could have a negative impact on some developers.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Developers Profits Drop in Q2 2008: Developers see business hit in Q3 - Q4 2008
Home sales has dropped drastically to just about 2 thousands in the first half of 2008compared to more than 14 thousands sold in 2007. HIT by fewer home sales, lower revaluation gains from investment properties, drops in divestment gains - and even the stronger Singapore dollar - most property developers reported substantial drop in profits in Q2 2008.CapitaLand reported a 43.5% drop in its Q2 profit, City Developments a 15.1% drop and Keppel Land a 16.4% drop.
Most listed developers have warned that the global slowdown and weakening market could continue to hit their business in the Q3 and Q4 of 2008. Even the most upbeat are only 'cautiously optimistic'.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry's latest quarterly economic survey showed there are increasing signs that segments within services - including the retail trade and hotels - are showing slower growth.
Property stocks with exposure to those sectors - such as CapitaLand, CityDev and UOL Group, to name just a few - could see contributions from those divisions drop.
As for the residential market in Singaporee, a number of banks including Citigroup, Credit Sussie, Barclay have forecasted a drop in prices of as much as 40%; which could have a negative impact on some developers.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
City Developments, 37 percent-owned by the family of property tycoon Kwek Leng Beng, earned S$165.2 million ($117.6 million) in the April-June period, down from S$194.4 million reported a year ago.
The company chief Kwek Leng Beng said it may raise Islamic debt as part of a S$1 billion Islamic multi-currency notes programme. He has repeatedly said that the property market is still strong and that City Developments is in a good position to hold back launches until the completion of first integrated resorts next year when he expected sentiment to improve. Kwek Leng Beng also acknowledged that there have been some cases of high-end property buyers resorting to panic-selling in the secondary market. These are people who'd bought their units during the early stages of the property boom
Forumers' comments:
"After CDL chief speak up making a statement...............'UBS analysts downgraded CDL shares ...The louder Kwek Leng Beng shouts that property is still healthy and it is a good time to buy.............M Stanley analysts down graded CDL shares again to the lower and lower and recommend 'to sell' CDL sharesCould he just bites his tounge?......we are holding a lot of CDL shares when we bought it at the peak.............we are now losing $ millions and $ millions.He talks like he is bigger/ richer than Warren Buffett who has $ billlions and $ billions."
"The more the CDL Chief talks, the more his share falls ...."
"It is true as Kwek Leng Beng said property slowdown not widespread. Look at the newspaper, majority of the 3rm HDB flats are asking or transacted at above $300k , by the way why it happened now if the market is so bad. HDB flats are still moving or selling well till now. I do agree that some desperate sellers are like some readers very panic thinking the market will collapse. Construction material costs are higher now due to many construction sites in Singapore. Many expats are coming into Singapore to work too. Foreign investors like Singaporeans are wait & see situation. All buyers are waiting to get good buy. They are waiting for sellers who cannot hold on well or start to panic. By the way, this is Life!"
"Your thought are rather shallow I must say. All this crap by the media and property agents/developers are not worth reading. I have stayed in a lot of countries and I am always shocked on how preoccupied an average singaporean is about properties compared to overseas people. It is unhealthy and is the same as a gambling mentality. Worse when info is tightly skewed and biased. Property in Singapore for the last 15 years since the 1990s is actually nothing shot of gambling and hype. Period. The only people to benefit are the developers, banks and agents. A lot of people has short memories and are prone to gambling. In 1998/7 and 2003/4, I know of numerous cases of people who fell into the trap of believing all the crap, being irrationally optimistics , told Singapore's would be switzerland of the east, blah, etc and commit huge mortgages thinking everything is always going up(same mantra last 2 years) . Suddenly when it collapsed, they cannot pay the huge mortgages when the economy goes bad suddenly (literally over a few months) the banks would repo their homes . However now in the 2000s, information is widely available and instantaneous and easily verified. World economy is going down and tis is possibly the worst recession in 100 years!!! Read the internet and use common sense. It is like gravity. at the end of the day, logic always prevails , that's why banks always win. Worse come, they just repo your homes and foreclosed it, collect the interests, ask you to top up for negative equity, etc.Your pay is not going to go up by much and like in US inflation is going to hit us hard. in my opinion, A lot of what happened to US and Europe is going to happen in Singapore. Worse when you see how much people committed to such gambles. on average a person in US/Europe commits 30% of their salary to their mortgage. But in Singapore it is like 70-80%!!!! of your salary. That's why when even MRT increase their fares by 10 cents or petrol goes up by a few cents a lot of people protests. Which means they have difficulty making ends meet with their budget. So disposable income is going to go down as costs of living is going to go up. Less money available for cars and property, hence cars COEs is getting cheaper(if they have an equivalent property like COEs it is going to be the same!!!!). When agents/developers are always going to the press everyday to tell you to commit, you know something's not right."
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
City Developments Q2 Profit 15% drop
City Developments posted a 15 percent fall in net profit for Q2 2008 as property sales slumped in the first half of this year.City Developments, 37 percent-owned by the family of property tycoon Kwek Leng Beng, earned S$165.2 million ($117.6 million) in the April-June period, down from S$194.4 million reported a year ago.
The company chief Kwek Leng Beng said it may raise Islamic debt as part of a S$1 billion Islamic multi-currency notes programme. He has repeatedly said that the property market is still strong and that City Developments is in a good position to hold back launches until the completion of first integrated resorts next year when he expected sentiment to improve. Kwek Leng Beng also acknowledged that there have been some cases of high-end property buyers resorting to panic-selling in the secondary market. These are people who'd bought their units during the early stages of the property boom
Forumers' comments:
"After CDL chief speak up making a statement...............'UBS analysts downgraded CDL shares ...The louder Kwek Leng Beng shouts that property is still healthy and it is a good time to buy.............M Stanley analysts down graded CDL shares again to the lower and lower and recommend 'to sell' CDL sharesCould he just bites his tounge?......we are holding a lot of CDL shares when we bought it at the peak.............we are now losing $ millions and $ millions.He talks like he is bigger/ richer than Warren Buffett who has $ billlions and $ billions."
"The more the CDL Chief talks, the more his share falls ...."
"It is true as Kwek Leng Beng said property slowdown not widespread. Look at the newspaper, majority of the 3rm HDB flats are asking or transacted at above $300k , by the way why it happened now if the market is so bad. HDB flats are still moving or selling well till now. I do agree that some desperate sellers are like some readers very panic thinking the market will collapse. Construction material costs are higher now due to many construction sites in Singapore. Many expats are coming into Singapore to work too. Foreign investors like Singaporeans are wait & see situation. All buyers are waiting to get good buy. They are waiting for sellers who cannot hold on well or start to panic. By the way, this is Life!"
"Your thought are rather shallow I must say. All this crap by the media and property agents/developers are not worth reading. I have stayed in a lot of countries and I am always shocked on how preoccupied an average singaporean is about properties compared to overseas people. It is unhealthy and is the same as a gambling mentality. Worse when info is tightly skewed and biased. Property in Singapore for the last 15 years since the 1990s is actually nothing shot of gambling and hype. Period. The only people to benefit are the developers, banks and agents. A lot of people has short memories and are prone to gambling. In 1998/7 and 2003/4, I know of numerous cases of people who fell into the trap of believing all the crap, being irrationally optimistics , told Singapore's would be switzerland of the east, blah, etc and commit huge mortgages thinking everything is always going up(same mantra last 2 years) . Suddenly when it collapsed, they cannot pay the huge mortgages when the economy goes bad suddenly (literally over a few months) the banks would repo their homes . However now in the 2000s, information is widely available and instantaneous and easily verified. World economy is going down and tis is possibly the worst recession in 100 years!!! Read the internet and use common sense. It is like gravity. at the end of the day, logic always prevails , that's why banks always win. Worse come, they just repo your homes and foreclosed it, collect the interests, ask you to top up for negative equity, etc.Your pay is not going to go up by much and like in US inflation is going to hit us hard. in my opinion, A lot of what happened to US and Europe is going to happen in Singapore. Worse when you see how much people committed to such gambles. on average a person in US/Europe commits 30% of their salary to their mortgage. But in Singapore it is like 70-80%!!!! of your salary. That's why when even MRT increase their fares by 10 cents or petrol goes up by a few cents a lot of people protests. Which means they have difficulty making ends meet with their budget. So disposable income is going to go down as costs of living is going to go up. Less money available for cars and property, hence cars COEs is getting cheaper(if they have an equivalent property like COEs it is going to be the same!!!!). When agents/developers are always going to the press everyday to tell you to commit, you know something's not right."
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
all property owners dont worry if you are keeping your property for the long term ... any price fall will rise ... with rising construction costs property prices will eventually rise ... anyway the good news is dont expect prices to fall much as spore's growth is good ... prices will in fact start to rise gradually ... the bears who now have lots of cash will eventually pay current or higher prices ... i know cos i'm a seasoned investor ...
Bear wrote:
Bulls are like typical gamblers. They always tell themselves "Sure Win!" but they'll lose. Because the odds are against them. They're betting their last dollar on the IRs. Why should IRs cause property price to shoot? They don't know. They just listen to the developers, the property agents singing the song, and they jump in... That's the way the bulls are... Buyers, prices don't drop, then don't buy! Don't ever become a slave to your condo. Buyers don't buy, price must drop! Buyers you're very close to a market crash. Read the signs!!!! The whole world is going to go into a recession and this little red dot cannot be spared. Listen to the govt. Prepare yourself for a downturn. Let the bulls eat their own bullshits. Those who need a home, buy with subsidy from HDB at just $1xx psf to $2xx psf. Bears who have lot of cash can put it in many other places. Even leaving it in CPF will get you 2.5%. Rental yield is now 2% at developers' current price and sure to go down as expat go home and more supply come on stream. Think of the risk that come with your mortgage. Learn from those ppl who bought properties in the 90s who also thought they sure win but till today, still bleeding.
Bull wrote:
Cloth, food, accomodation and travel. These are what needed by any people. There are some pressure right now for private properties due to the sentiment and confidence of the people. Mass market is still healthy and Liva and Clover by the Park are good examples that people are still buying. Price won't fall that fast also and it will be a long wait. For those who are wating. Enjoy your long wait. 2-3 years are not that long.
Bear wrote:
People need cloth but Gucci and Prada are not necessities. People need food but eating in restaurant is not a necessity. People need accomodation but condo is not a necessity .... Private property price have surged suddenly last year, partly because of sudden influx of foreign workers, partly because of speculation. We'll be seeing a reversal now. The reversal will cause a drop in demand (maybe back to 2006). Supply is definitely increasing. This is not sentiment. It has real impact on the property market. When news report said good response for Livia, Clover etc ... verfty with URA data: Livia 21/1822. transacted,Clove 122/616... Good response? Ya .. developers will say not launch but why not launch, because no takers... don't ever pay attention to all the "talk big" from the developers .. see through all their bluffs .. Price will fall fast or not, it's not for you or me to say, but how fast the economy declines which looks really fast if you're paying attention to what have happened quickly all over the world. Which is worse, dont buy now and wait or buy now and start worrying about your mortgage? Anyway, even a bull like you admitted that price will fall, sure it makes sense to wait if you can wait. I can wait. 2 or 3 years no problem at all. But looking at the global economy is deteriorting, I don't think one will even have to for 1 year.
Bull wrote:
Singapore is so Stable, why worry about the mortgage? Unless you don't do your job well. Singapore is still growing except that it's slower, the economy is not crashed. You are one of ancient guy who worries that the sky will fall.
Bear wrote:
You are not paying attention to what your leaders are saying: expect job loss lah..retrenchment is because of poor business not whether you work hard or not ... aiya ... you just want to brush away all the bad news because you've no choice lah .. but if you're not in it yet, you'd also wait given the current condition ... pity you lah...
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Impact of Inflation: Is increase buiding costs a good reason that private property price will continue to rise ?
Bull wrote:all property owners dont worry if you are keeping your property for the long term ... any price fall will rise ... with rising construction costs property prices will eventually rise ... anyway the good news is dont expect prices to fall much as spore's growth is good ... prices will in fact start to rise gradually ... the bears who now have lots of cash will eventually pay current or higher prices ... i know cos i'm a seasoned investor ...
Bear wrote:
Bulls are like typical gamblers. They always tell themselves "Sure Win!" but they'll lose. Because the odds are against them. They're betting their last dollar on the IRs. Why should IRs cause property price to shoot? They don't know. They just listen to the developers, the property agents singing the song, and they jump in... That's the way the bulls are... Buyers, prices don't drop, then don't buy! Don't ever become a slave to your condo. Buyers don't buy, price must drop! Buyers you're very close to a market crash. Read the signs!!!! The whole world is going to go into a recession and this little red dot cannot be spared. Listen to the govt. Prepare yourself for a downturn. Let the bulls eat their own bullshits. Those who need a home, buy with subsidy from HDB at just $1xx psf to $2xx psf. Bears who have lot of cash can put it in many other places. Even leaving it in CPF will get you 2.5%. Rental yield is now 2% at developers' current price and sure to go down as expat go home and more supply come on stream. Think of the risk that come with your mortgage. Learn from those ppl who bought properties in the 90s who also thought they sure win but till today, still bleeding.
Bull wrote:
Cloth, food, accomodation and travel. These are what needed by any people. There are some pressure right now for private properties due to the sentiment and confidence of the people. Mass market is still healthy and Liva and Clover by the Park are good examples that people are still buying. Price won't fall that fast also and it will be a long wait. For those who are wating. Enjoy your long wait. 2-3 years are not that long.
Bear wrote:
People need cloth but Gucci and Prada are not necessities. People need food but eating in restaurant is not a necessity. People need accomodation but condo is not a necessity .... Private property price have surged suddenly last year, partly because of sudden influx of foreign workers, partly because of speculation. We'll be seeing a reversal now. The reversal will cause a drop in demand (maybe back to 2006). Supply is definitely increasing. This is not sentiment. It has real impact on the property market. When news report said good response for Livia, Clover etc ... verfty with URA data: Livia 21/1822. transacted,Clove 122/616... Good response? Ya .. developers will say not launch but why not launch, because no takers... don't ever pay attention to all the "talk big" from the developers .. see through all their bluffs .. Price will fall fast or not, it's not for you or me to say, but how fast the economy declines which looks really fast if you're paying attention to what have happened quickly all over the world. Which is worse, dont buy now and wait or buy now and start worrying about your mortgage? Anyway, even a bull like you admitted that price will fall, sure it makes sense to wait if you can wait. I can wait. 2 or 3 years no problem at all. But looking at the global economy is deteriorting, I don't think one will even have to for 1 year.
Bull wrote:
Singapore is so Stable, why worry about the mortgage? Unless you don't do your job well. Singapore is still growing except that it's slower, the economy is not crashed. You are one of ancient guy who worries that the sky will fall.
Bear wrote:
You are not paying attention to what your leaders are saying: expect job loss lah..retrenchment is because of poor business not whether you work hard or not ... aiya ... you just want to brush away all the bad news because you've no choice lah .. but if you're not in it yet, you'd also wait given the current condition ... pity you lah...
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Saturday, August 16, 2008
About this Blog
If you are confused with so much talk on the property market these days, you are not alone.
One property consultant in a news report may say property prices will go up, but another consultant in the same report will probably say that the high prices cannot be sustained in the current climate.
So, who do you believe?
With the help from well-known market commentators - Chesterton International's research head Colin Tan and Knight Frank's research director Nicholas Mak - The New Paper compiled a checklist of 10 factors for bewildered sellers and buyers to consider before they sign on the dotted line.
Bear in mind that no one factor alone affects property prices because a cocktail of different elements are at play.
But if you do notice more of the following, you'll know that something is brewing.
Plain Economics 101 - more supply vs same demand, or higher demand vs even higher supply, will eventually lead to lower prices.
For example, if the Housing and Development Board decides to bump up construction of flats in a big way, be prepared for a ripple-down effect on the property market.
Rentals may dip due to a slowdown in demand or more supply in the market.
When rentals start dropping in a weak market, more landlords may have problems meeting their monthly instalments and up to a point, the gap will be so big that they will have to sell the property.
You leave your name at a condo showroom and agents keep calling you, even for other projects that you didn't view.
It means that agents are getting desperate and buyers are not biting.
The Straits Times Classifieds on Saturdays come packed with numerous property advertisements, even more than during the 1996 property heydays.
And developers start to launch their projects in double-quick time to beat the rest.
You drive along the expressway at night and you see flanked on both sides newly completed swanky condos, but few lights are switched on, suggesting that the projects are not fully tenanted.
If you've been house-hunting, you'll see the signals.
A unit you've been looking at has dropped its selling price three times in the last six months, but no one is buying.
A unit has been advertised for more than six months, but has seen no takers. This means that buying activity has slowed down.
This means that the owners could be leveraging.
If the seller can't sell their units in a bad market, they'll try to offset their monthly mortgages by renting out their units instead. This means that buying activity has slowed down.
If there's economic uncertainty, investors, both locals and foreigners, will be spooked and unwilling to invest in the real estate market for fear of falling prices.
If companies are freezing recruitment and employment numbers and wages fall, affordability is also affected.
This leads to a drop in demand and similarly, prices.
This article was first published in The New Paper on July 7, 2008.
hehe, i guess i'm seeing all the elements mentioned in the article, except the last one, which is just a matter of time. that means it's a cocktail with full ingredients. property is surely heading down for now.
Posted by anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Investing Advice: Signs to check which way property market is heading
ARE property prices still on the way up, or are they heading to a slippery slope already?If you are confused with so much talk on the property market these days, you are not alone.
One property consultant in a news report may say property prices will go up, but another consultant in the same report will probably say that the high prices cannot be sustained in the current climate.
So, who do you believe?
With the help from well-known market commentators - Chesterton International's research head Colin Tan and Knight Frank's research director Nicholas Mak - The New Paper compiled a checklist of 10 factors for bewildered sellers and buyers to consider before they sign on the dotted line.
Bear in mind that no one factor alone affects property prices because a cocktail of different elements are at play.
But if you do notice more of the following, you'll know that something is brewing.
More homes in the market
Plain Economics 101 - more supply vs same demand, or higher demand vs even higher supply, will eventually lead to lower prices.
For example, if the Housing and Development Board decides to bump up construction of flats in a big way, be prepared for a ripple-down effect on the property market.
Rentals start dropping
Rentals may dip due to a slowdown in demand or more supply in the market.
When rentals start dropping in a weak market, more landlords may have problems meeting their monthly instalments and up to a point, the gap will be so big that they will have to sell the property.
Agents get aggressive
You leave your name at a condo showroom and agents keep calling you, even for other projects that you didn't view.
It means that agents are getting desperate and buyers are not biting.
More units put up for sale
The Straits Times Classifieds on Saturdays come packed with numerous property advertisements, even more than during the 1996 property heydays.
And developers start to launch their projects in double-quick time to beat the rest.
No one's home?
You drive along the expressway at night and you see flanked on both sides newly completed swanky condos, but few lights are switched on, suggesting that the projects are not fully tenanted.
Asking prices have dropped. Again.
If you've been house-hunting, you'll see the signals.
A unit you've been looking at has dropped its selling price three times in the last six months, but no one is buying.
Property not moving
A unit has been advertised for more than six months, but has seen no takers. This means that buying activity has slowed down.
More units put up for rent
This means that the owners could be leveraging.
If the seller can't sell their units in a bad market, they'll try to offset their monthly mortgages by renting out their units instead. This means that buying activity has slowed down.
Economic weakness and uncertainty
If there's economic uncertainty, investors, both locals and foreigners, will be spooked and unwilling to invest in the real estate market for fear of falling prices.
Falling wages & rising unemployment
If companies are freezing recruitment and employment numbers and wages fall, affordability is also affected.
This leads to a drop in demand and similarly, prices.
This article was first published in The New Paper on July 7, 2008.
hehe, i guess i'm seeing all the elements mentioned in the article, except the last one, which is just a matter of time. that means it's a cocktail with full ingredients. property is surely heading down for now.
Posted by anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
Please note that increase in construction cost is due to the building of the IRs that suck all the resources from the local construction scene. Industry watchers expect costs to taper once the IRs are completed.
Contrary to popular beliefs, increase in construction costs is bad for the construction companies and also for the developers.
Imagine developer lauches a project. Building will often take some time after the launch. The 20% downpayment will be used in the cash flow to fund the building costs. There is often a time lag between launches and actual building. Now with the sales already made, and costs escalating, it will affect the profitability of the projects.
Developers, especially the smaller ones will delay the building until more units are sold. This is to minimize the loans from the banks for the building costs. However, they cannot delay indefinitely as there is a pressure on the TOP date.
However, in this weak market, sales are slow and costs are increasing and TOP coming, this increases the pressure on cash flow on the developers. This is happening to the projects on the market now, with TOPs in 2010 or 2011.
Guess what will they do?
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Inflation Impact on Singapore: Increase Construction Costs Bad for Developers
SOME building projects in Singapore are facing cost blowouts of 30 to 50 per cent above their original budget as higher construction costs bite hard.Please note that increase in construction cost is due to the building of the IRs that suck all the resources from the local construction scene. Industry watchers expect costs to taper once the IRs are completed.
Contrary to popular beliefs, increase in construction costs is bad for the construction companies and also for the developers.
Imagine developer lauches a project. Building will often take some time after the launch. The 20% downpayment will be used in the cash flow to fund the building costs. There is often a time lag between launches and actual building. Now with the sales already made, and costs escalating, it will affect the profitability of the projects.
Developers, especially the smaller ones will delay the building until more units are sold. This is to minimize the loans from the banks for the building costs. However, they cannot delay indefinitely as there is a pressure on the TOP date.
However, in this weak market, sales are slow and costs are increasing and TOP coming, this increases the pressure on cash flow on the developers. This is happening to the projects on the market now, with TOPs in 2010 or 2011.
Guess what will they do?
Posted by Anonymous in the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
About this Blog
Construction costs will rise due to inflation. If property prices are allowed to rise over and above this increase; would the rising be considered as an unnatural rise? Should the finger be pointed at the biggest land owner and property developer with a virtual monopoly of the real estate market?
A fast rate of increase in property prices is the one item that does the most damage to the majority of Singaporeans.
Property price increases benefit mainly the following groups. Those that want to migrate. Those that want to cash in on the price increases by selling their extra properties. Those that invest (gamble) in property prices hoping to hit the jackpot. Foreigners.
The rest suffers. Everybody else suffers.
The increase in property prices will cause a rise in rental rates and mortgage rates and mortgage amounts; among numerous other things.
With the current rise in property prices unabated since 2004; it has become an urgent question to reflect upon.
It happens to be the one factor that is directly under the Singapore Government's control. They are the single biggest land owner and the single biggest property owner and developer. They relentlessly acquired land using legislation. They asked those who sacrificed their lands to consider the bigger good. Had their sacrifice now ended up in a system that exploits the poor and poorer among us?
The government in power can and must target the property price increases to below the common inflation rate; taking preemptive measures to ensure that price does not rise above that.
This will directly benefit the majority of Singaporeans at the expense of the minority who treats property prices as a casino game rather then a necessity. Singaporeans as a whole will benefit with having more money in their pockets instead of it being tied up in properties and paying for mortgage interests.
What is to be done about the already sharp rise? A sudden crash will have vast negative impact. A slow burn will be the best course of action. A continual rise would certainly raise questions as to the integrity of the government in power.
Housing must once and for all be a consumable item and never for investment. Capital will be directed towards jobs creating industries instead of gambled in properties hoping to hit the jackpot.
When it comes to properties, the principle of more than enough must apply at all times. To ensure that there is more than enough, there must be a glut at all times.
There must be a glut in the various types of housing,
There must be a glut in the various types of commercial properties.
There must be a glut in rental properties.
There must be a glut in properties that cater to the micro entrepreneurs.
There must be a glut in properties that cater to the big entrepreneurs.
There must be a glut in properties for rental to hawkers.
You get the picture.
Before you blast me with negative comments, please consider the following:
Property price increases are meaningless for the property owner who needs a roof over his head.
Property price increases creates and adds unecessary burdens for the next generation, our children.
Property price increases are a method to transfer money from the poor (non property owners) to the rich (extra properties owners.)
The rich can take good care of themselves.
Posted by Ann at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
When property prices go up, it benefits the few at the expense of the majority
The unchecked and unnatural rise in the price of property in Singapore over the past years and in the coming years will harm you, the average Singaporean for the benefit of the rich.Construction costs will rise due to inflation. If property prices are allowed to rise over and above this increase; would the rising be considered as an unnatural rise? Should the finger be pointed at the biggest land owner and property developer with a virtual monopoly of the real estate market?
A fast rate of increase in property prices is the one item that does the most damage to the majority of Singaporeans.
Property price increases benefit mainly the following groups. Those that want to migrate. Those that want to cash in on the price increases by selling their extra properties. Those that invest (gamble) in property prices hoping to hit the jackpot. Foreigners.
The rest suffers. Everybody else suffers.
The increase in property prices will cause a rise in rental rates and mortgage rates and mortgage amounts; among numerous other things.
With the current rise in property prices unabated since 2004; it has become an urgent question to reflect upon.
It happens to be the one factor that is directly under the Singapore Government's control. They are the single biggest land owner and the single biggest property owner and developer. They relentlessly acquired land using legislation. They asked those who sacrificed their lands to consider the bigger good. Had their sacrifice now ended up in a system that exploits the poor and poorer among us?
The government in power can and must target the property price increases to below the common inflation rate; taking preemptive measures to ensure that price does not rise above that.
This will directly benefit the majority of Singaporeans at the expense of the minority who treats property prices as a casino game rather then a necessity. Singaporeans as a whole will benefit with having more money in their pockets instead of it being tied up in properties and paying for mortgage interests.
What is to be done about the already sharp rise? A sudden crash will have vast negative impact. A slow burn will be the best course of action. A continual rise would certainly raise questions as to the integrity of the government in power.
Housing must once and for all be a consumable item and never for investment. Capital will be directed towards jobs creating industries instead of gambled in properties hoping to hit the jackpot.
When it comes to properties, the principle of more than enough must apply at all times. To ensure that there is more than enough, there must be a glut at all times.
There must be a glut in the various types of housing,
There must be a glut in the various types of commercial properties.
There must be a glut in rental properties.
There must be a glut in properties that cater to the micro entrepreneurs.
There must be a glut in properties that cater to the big entrepreneurs.
There must be a glut in properties for rental to hawkers.
You get the picture.
Before you blast me with negative comments, please consider the following:
Property price increases are meaningless for the property owner who needs a roof over his head.
Property price increases creates and adds unecessary burdens for the next generation, our children.
Property price increases are a method to transfer money from the poor (non property owners) to the rich (extra properties owners.)
The rich can take good care of themselves.
Posted by Ann at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
The following is the News report on MM Lee's Singapore economic outlook for 2008-2009:
"PREPARE for a 'rougher ride' as the economy slows, but the Government will ensure that low income Singaporeans can cope with the bumps. Speaking at the annual National Day dinner at his Tanjong Pagar constituency, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said: 'We cannot protect our people completely from the high oil and food prices. But we will make sure that they can manage.' He referred to the slew of relief measures this year, costing over $3 billion, with many of them targeted at low wage workers.
MM Lee believes it looks 'increasingly likely' that the US credit crunch will cause a downturn when the new US President takes over in January. He said: 'There will be retrenchments in those industries whose exports to America and Europe are affected,' he warned. But foreign workers will take the brunt, 'saving many Singaporeans their jobs'."
The following are some forumers' responses to the report at the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
Note: "foreign workers will take the brunt" ... more than 50% of private properties during the 2007 boom are bought by foreigners ... this will add more downward pressure on the private property price in the months to come!
Forumer 2 wrote:
This is just cut & paste what you like to read, not the full message. MM said GDP growth in next few years, worst case is 3%, best case is 8%, so there is no recession, Spore will continue to grow. Last year new foreign workers is 160k-180k, only 2-3% of them buy property, these are the talents & top end earner, those affected are not in this bracket, are those in the 97-98% bracket. Read carefully MM said, he is still very confidence of Spore growth, he mentioned China & India again to be the pillar in next few years of Spore, Asia & Global growth.
Forumer 3 wrote:
That's not the bottom line. The bottom line is that he implicitly ensured us that so long as PAP is in charge ppty prices in Singapore will never fall. Moreover, the skyhigh construction cost today will soon be passed to the ppty buyers. So, the sign is very clear now. Whether we want to solve the construction crunch or face a severe ppty crunch ahead. Either way ppty prices in Singapore is set to hit the higher level.
Forumer 4 wrote:
This is the most nonsensical argument. PAP was the government when property price plunged 50-60% during the Asian financial crisis and then the SARS. More than 90% Singaporeans already own their homes. So how can developers hope to squeeze them. If there's anything very clear that the govt is trying to do, it is to flood the market with supply of private properties. 68K units in the supply is a historical record that people may not yet understand the implications. I'd however agree that govt would want to keep HDB price stable, appreciating in tandem with economic growth. But private property, bet at your own risk. The price gap between a new private condo ($700-1000psf) and a new HDB ($200-$300 psf) in the same location is huge. Conclusion: There is a long way for private property price to fall.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
MM Lee: Economic Growth Down 3%-4% in 2008, Foreign workers will take the brunt of Job Losses
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew has further reduced the Singapore economic growth forecast for 2008 to between 3%-5%, after the Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong revised it down to 4%-5% from 4%-6% during his National Day Speech.The following is the News report on MM Lee's Singapore economic outlook for 2008-2009:
"PREPARE for a 'rougher ride' as the economy slows, but the Government will ensure that low income Singaporeans can cope with the bumps. Speaking at the annual National Day dinner at his Tanjong Pagar constituency, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said: 'We cannot protect our people completely from the high oil and food prices. But we will make sure that they can manage.' He referred to the slew of relief measures this year, costing over $3 billion, with many of them targeted at low wage workers.
MM Lee believes it looks 'increasingly likely' that the US credit crunch will cause a downturn when the new US President takes over in January. He said: 'There will be retrenchments in those industries whose exports to America and Europe are affected,' he warned. But foreign workers will take the brunt, 'saving many Singaporeans their jobs'."
The following are some forumers' responses to the report at the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
Note: "foreign workers will take the brunt" ... more than 50% of private properties during the 2007 boom are bought by foreigners ... this will add more downward pressure on the private property price in the months to come!
Forumer 2 wrote:
This is just cut & paste what you like to read, not the full message. MM said GDP growth in next few years, worst case is 3%, best case is 8%, so there is no recession, Spore will continue to grow. Last year new foreign workers is 160k-180k, only 2-3% of them buy property, these are the talents & top end earner, those affected are not in this bracket, are those in the 97-98% bracket. Read carefully MM said, he is still very confidence of Spore growth, he mentioned China & India again to be the pillar in next few years of Spore, Asia & Global growth.
Forumer 3 wrote:
That's not the bottom line. The bottom line is that he implicitly ensured us that so long as PAP is in charge ppty prices in Singapore will never fall. Moreover, the skyhigh construction cost today will soon be passed to the ppty buyers. So, the sign is very clear now. Whether we want to solve the construction crunch or face a severe ppty crunch ahead. Either way ppty prices in Singapore is set to hit the higher level.
Forumer 4 wrote:
This is the most nonsensical argument. PAP was the government when property price plunged 50-60% during the Asian financial crisis and then the SARS. More than 90% Singaporeans already own their homes. So how can developers hope to squeeze them. If there's anything very clear that the govt is trying to do, it is to flood the market with supply of private properties. 68K units in the supply is a historical record that people may not yet understand the implications. I'd however agree that govt would want to keep HDB price stable, appreciating in tandem with economic growth. But private property, bet at your own risk. The price gap between a new private condo ($700-1000psf) and a new HDB ($200-$300 psf) in the same location is huge. Conclusion: There is a long way for private property price to fall.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
The following are some forumers' responses to the report at the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
Signs of Bad Times ....At $117.96 psf.....what will be the launch psf at....perhaps below $400 psf Anybody out there can share some light....
Forumer 2 wrote:
I believe even if the developer sell below $500 psf, they willl still make tons of money.... Let's just wait, this is the condo to watch out for.....
Forumer 3 wrote:
Buyer Galore.haha dream on. Construction cost for low end condo is about $300psf and the cost of land is $118. To breakeven, developer has to sell more than $500psf. So, most likely it will be above $600psf. Unless developer doesnt want to make money and do it for charity !
Forumer 4 wrote:
Of course, developers want to sell high high price. Of course developers would want to pass on the increase in buidling costs to conusmers. Can they? So far, it doesn't look like they can. Otherwise, we won't have a 63% unsold inventory. The question is whether buyers want to buy at $600 psf or even $500 psf or even $400 psf ??? with the economy looking worse each quarter and jobs have quickly gone ?? It's about supply and demand. Supply is increasing with more projects getting TOP. Demanding is decreasing as jobs and earnings decline. So, with plunging sales and shares, and increasing costs and inventory, how long can developers hold? Buyers are not stupid these days.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
URA's 99-yr site receives one bid for Tampines Site
An Urban Redevelopment Authority tender for a 99-year leasehold condominium site at Tampines Ave 1/Ave 10 facing Bedok Reservoir closed on Tuesday receiving just one bid. Boon Keng Development bid S$84.63 million or S$117.96 per square foot of potential gross floor area. The bid was way below market expectations.The following are some forumers' responses to the report at the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
Signs of Bad Times ....At $117.96 psf.....what will be the launch psf at....perhaps below $400 psf Anybody out there can share some light....
Forumer 2 wrote:
I believe even if the developer sell below $500 psf, they willl still make tons of money.... Let's just wait, this is the condo to watch out for.....
Forumer 3 wrote:
Buyer Galore.haha dream on. Construction cost for low end condo is about $300psf and the cost of land is $118. To breakeven, developer has to sell more than $500psf. So, most likely it will be above $600psf. Unless developer doesnt want to make money and do it for charity !
Forumer 4 wrote:
Of course, developers want to sell high high price. Of course developers would want to pass on the increase in buidling costs to conusmers. Can they? So far, it doesn't look like they can. Otherwise, we won't have a 63% unsold inventory. The question is whether buyers want to buy at $600 psf or even $500 psf or even $400 psf ??? with the economy looking worse each quarter and jobs have quickly gone ?? It's about supply and demand. Supply is increasing with more projects getting TOP. Demanding is decreasing as jobs and earnings decline. So, with plunging sales and shares, and increasing costs and inventory, how long can developers hold? Buyers are not stupid these days.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
About this Blog
The following are some forumers' responses to the report at the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
People are going to be losing jobs, losing bonus, ... we may be into what Tony Tan called "long, deep recession" ... property is set for a crash ..
Forumer 2 wrote:
If you are affected by the economy pressure, advise is to buy HDB. Don't push yourselve as private property is not your choice.
Forumer 3 wrote:
You probably going to get fire with your kind of mentality. Properties are not going to fall as cost of building them is increasing and sin dollar is dropping. Go and buy HDB if you can't afford private property.
Forumer 4 wrote:
is it?
I only see more new BMW, Merz, Audi...on the road.
Orchard rd is so crowded, people keep buying.
US$ is low, everybody go US for holiday.
Peple is still buying property at current price.
PC show, mobile...new nodels are still sell like hot cake...
where is the recession? crash? all these are in the heart of coward, timid, kiasi, kiasu.....work hard, be creative, opportunity is there for you.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Singapore Economic Growth Down to 2.1% Q2 2008
S'pore's economy shrank in Q2 and exports are also set to fall, a sign that sagging growth is set to be a bigger worry for Asia than inflation.The following are some forumers' responses to the report at the Singapore Property Forum:
Forumer 1 wrote:
People are going to be losing jobs, losing bonus, ... we may be into what Tony Tan called "long, deep recession" ... property is set for a crash ..
Forumer 2 wrote:
If you are affected by the economy pressure, advise is to buy HDB. Don't push yourselve as private property is not your choice.
Forumer 3 wrote:
You probably going to get fire with your kind of mentality. Properties are not going to fall as cost of building them is increasing and sin dollar is dropping. Go and buy HDB if you can't afford private property.
Forumer 4 wrote:
is it?
I only see more new BMW, Merz, Audi...on the road.
Orchard rd is so crowded, people keep buying.
US$ is low, everybody go US for holiday.
Peple is still buying property at current price.
PC show, mobile...new nodels are still sell like hot cake...
where is the recession? crash? all these are in the heart of coward, timid, kiasi, kiasu.....work hard, be creative, opportunity is there for you.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
It was the middle of 1996, a boom time for the stock market as well as the property market. The couple - working professionals - were earning salaries that disqualify them for subsidised HDB housing.
Just married, they were yearning for a nice place to stay in. They set their eyes on a 1,300 square foot condominium just north of Ang Mo Kio. The location is not very central, but the asking price was a crazy $1 million. It was a stretch for the couple. Without huge savings, they could only afford the initial 20% downpayment and had to borrow the rest for the progress payments.
But given the rosy economy then, and the fact that they were holding well-paying jobs (making a combined $150k a year), they went ahead and bought the condo.
We all know what happened next. The economy tanked. Asia went into financial crisis. Jobs were lost. Stock and property prices fell. Drastically. Salaries were cut.
The couple also saw their income go down. Yet, they still had to make the mortgage repayments. A big part of their earnings went to the bank. They were slaves to the mortgage loan. (It’s still the case now. So they don’t save a lot.) Worse, the condo’s value went down, almost to negative equity level, i.e. owing the bank more than the property’s worth. Even now, when property prices are at peak levels (and maybe on the way down), the couple’s condo is still a loss-making investment. Why? Their condo is a leasehold property.
So, this unfortunate couple is “stuck” with a still-sizable bank loan, a condo that’s depreciating in value, and low savings. And they are considered high income earners… A wrong move, and they are hit financially for a long time… Will it happen again?
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Property Investment Advice: Don't let a big part of your earnings go to the bank
Slightly more than 10 years ago, a young couple bought something that almost ruined their lives financially.It was the middle of 1996, a boom time for the stock market as well as the property market. The couple - working professionals - were earning salaries that disqualify them for subsidised HDB housing.
Just married, they were yearning for a nice place to stay in. They set their eyes on a 1,300 square foot condominium just north of Ang Mo Kio. The location is not very central, but the asking price was a crazy $1 million. It was a stretch for the couple. Without huge savings, they could only afford the initial 20% downpayment and had to borrow the rest for the progress payments.
But given the rosy economy then, and the fact that they were holding well-paying jobs (making a combined $150k a year), they went ahead and bought the condo.
We all know what happened next. The economy tanked. Asia went into financial crisis. Jobs were lost. Stock and property prices fell. Drastically. Salaries were cut.
The couple also saw their income go down. Yet, they still had to make the mortgage repayments. A big part of their earnings went to the bank. They were slaves to the mortgage loan. (It’s still the case now. So they don’t save a lot.) Worse, the condo’s value went down, almost to negative equity level, i.e. owing the bank more than the property’s worth. Even now, when property prices are at peak levels (and maybe on the way down), the couple’s condo is still a loss-making investment. Why? Their condo is a leasehold property.
So, this unfortunate couple is “stuck” with a still-sizable bank loan, a condo that’s depreciating in value, and low savings. And they are considered high income earners… A wrong move, and they are hit financially for a long time… Will it happen again?
The above account is posted by anonymous at the Singapore Property Forum
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
About this Blog
In real life, many people with low income are still able to live comfortably. They manage their money properly by spending within their means. They buy only when they can afford to pay with their income or savings. They buy only what they need.
On the other hand, some rich people are always in debt. They may be rich in assets but poor in cash. As a result, they have no choice but to buy on credit or get a bank loan and pay interest. When there is an economic downturn, these rich people have to sell their assets at a great loss. Some may even go bankrupt when they are unable to pay their debts.
So, the rich maybe poor and the poor rich. The secret lies with good management of your personal finances.
May also want to read:
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Personal Finance Planning: Be a rich poor or a poor rich
In any society, there are people with low income and there are others who earn seven-figure salaries. It is natural for us to assume that those with little income will always be deprived of what they need and that those with large income will always get what they want.In real life, many people with low income are still able to live comfortably. They manage their money properly by spending within their means. They buy only when they can afford to pay with their income or savings. They buy only what they need.
On the other hand, some rich people are always in debt. They may be rich in assets but poor in cash. As a result, they have no choice but to buy on credit or get a bank loan and pay interest. When there is an economic downturn, these rich people have to sell their assets at a great loss. Some may even go bankrupt when they are unable to pay their debts.
So, the rich maybe poor and the poor rich. The secret lies with good management of your personal finances.
May also want to read:
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
Saturday, August 9, 2008
About this Blog
This is one way how liquidity risk can manifest itself.
This is something a property owner that are looking to liquidate his assets should be VERY worried about.
Iliquidity caused the whole sub-prime crisis. The banks were trying to sell their credit products but since there where no volume for them, they had to mark them down to some 10 to 20 percents on the dollar.
Now all said and done, property is no credit derivative BUT property as an assets class is very prone to drop in volume because there exists no market makers that are obligated to quote BID and ask prices. This can put an investor in a situation that he cannot find any bid for a property for a long time and hence all he can do is watch the price of his asset go through the floor.
Ask property investors from Las Vegas, Nevada some developments have dropped from a peak price of 600 000 USD to 60 000 USD for the same foreclosed property . I am not saying that this kind of drop is going to occur here in Singapore. But to reason that the drastic drop in volume is nothing to care about is just to put your head in the sand.
Posted by guest at the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Investing Advice: Downside Risk of Property Market will first be observed as Sharp Decrease in Transaction Volume
In a market like the property market where you trade non-securitized assets like property you are unlikely to observe increased downside risk as higher volatility (i.e. price fluctuations like in the stock market) but what you do observe is a sharp decrease in traded volume.This is one way how liquidity risk can manifest itself.
This is something a property owner that are looking to liquidate his assets should be VERY worried about.
Iliquidity caused the whole sub-prime crisis. The banks were trying to sell their credit products but since there where no volume for them, they had to mark them down to some 10 to 20 percents on the dollar.
Now all said and done, property is no credit derivative BUT property as an assets class is very prone to drop in volume because there exists no market makers that are obligated to quote BID and ask prices. This can put an investor in a situation that he cannot find any bid for a property for a long time and hence all he can do is watch the price of his asset go through the floor.
Ask property investors from Las Vegas, Nevada some developments have dropped from a peak price of 600 000 USD to 60 000 USD for the same foreclosed property . I am not saying that this kind of drop is going to occur here in Singapore. But to reason that the drastic drop in volume is nothing to care about is just to put your head in the sand.
Posted by guest at the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Friday, August 8, 2008
About this Blog
If it succeeds, I doubt there is much further upside (for property price), as that story has already been priced in. How else to explain a 50% jump in prices in only 1-2yrs?
On the other hand, I think its success is not a given, and anything less will lead to a collapse in prices.
Lots of competition from Macau for Chinese, Crown for Australians, Genting for Malaysians.
KLCC, Bali, etc all have some spawling exhibition and convention areas. Much cheaper, and nicer surroundings.
Tourism is fickle. Its also a extravagance in hard times. It can totally collapse if there is an outbreak of some infectious disease (SARS, bird flu, mad cow have all shown this to be true), or a terrorist attack.
That prices haven't fallen even more dramatically I think is because once invested, human psychology is that we will rather live in denial than face the facts. So we cling on to any hope. IR, short US recession, remaking Singapore etc. When time finally erodes that hope, prices will collapse. This phenomenon has been observed in US and UK. Prices plateued for a long time before an accelerated fall. I think we're still in the phase of denial and hope.
Posted by Ann at the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
Integrated Resorts' Success Already Priced Into Singapore Property but Integrated Resorts' Success is Not Given
True, IR creates an industry where there previously was none and has potential.If it succeeds, I doubt there is much further upside (for property price), as that story has already been priced in. How else to explain a 50% jump in prices in only 1-2yrs?
On the other hand, I think its success is not a given, and anything less will lead to a collapse in prices.
Gambling
Lots of competition from Macau for Chinese, Crown for Australians, Genting for Malaysians.
Theme parks
Every theme park in Singapore has been a failure. To break with tradition will be an uphill battle. Disney can count on a ready stream of disney-philes. Even Hong Kong Disney is doing poorly. What do we have that's even more compelling? Also local weather (hot, rainy, humid) isn't very conducive for theme parks.Hotels
Singapore is just too darn expensive. Hotel rates are a killer.Facilities-wise
KLCC, Bali, etc all have some spawling exhibition and convention areas. Much cheaper, and nicer surroundings.
Uncertainties
Tourism is fickle. Its also a extravagance in hard times. It can totally collapse if there is an outbreak of some infectious disease (SARS, bird flu, mad cow have all shown this to be true), or a terrorist attack.
That prices haven't fallen even more dramatically I think is because once invested, human psychology is that we will rather live in denial than face the facts. So we cling on to any hope. IR, short US recession, remaking Singapore etc. When time finally erodes that hope, prices will collapse. This phenomenon has been observed in US and UK. Prices plateued for a long time before an accelerated fall. I think we're still in the phase of denial and hope.
Posted by Ann at the Singapore Property Forum.
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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