Wednesday, July 9, 2008
About this Blog
Tina wrote:
"I think property price will drop but wont drop so much cause Singapore now is different from Singapore in 1998 or 2004. "
Karen wrote:
"I'd like to think that you're right but I'm really not so sure about that. "
Anonymous wrote:
"I am sure about that cause Singapore has something in the offering by 2010, which is the opening of the world's largest casino and IR. I can foresee growing number of Chinese, westerners and Arabs coming here on long visits. Based on my contacts with foreign buyers, they have already indicated huge interest in the IR concept. "
Tina wrote:
"now is different from Singapore in 1998 or 2004.
We have a bigger/richer consumer market, stronger S$, a much firmed government to contain recession, and a strong reserve. On top of that, Asian economies are also getting stronger."
Karen wrote:
"bigger consumer market, yes but seems to me, not so rich cos otherwise we won't be seeing all the downgrading to HDB "
Anonymous wrote:
"Well some people downgrading is natural as cost of living goes up. Same like what happen in HK. More and more people from overseas are coming here. As such, we can expect more downgrading to happen as private condo owners sell their units to well-off foreigners and they downgrade to save the profits. "
Tina wrote:
"My take is if anyone expects property price to drop to prices like in 2004/05, they will be disappointed cause it will never happen. There are thousands of people who have already bought their units at high prices last year and in 2006. And if this happen, it will be catastrophe to Singapore. Catastrophe to its population, many of which own a private or HDB. They certainly do not wish to see their main asset component to drop in value eroding their long term wealth. "
Karen wrote:
"...if spore economy slums into a recession worse than the last one, who can stop property price from falling like 2004/05 ? It's not about who'll be disappointed, it's about Singapore being a small, open economy with little control over its destiny. Wee Cho Yaw has said that this financial crisis is the worst he has seen in like 50 yrs, which means it's worse than the last Asian financial crisis. So who can predict if Singpore economy won't get worse than the last recession we saw ? I wish it doesn't happen but wish is one thing, reality is another. The threat is growing each day. "
Anonymous wrote:
"Well I understand your pessimism, but put it this way, the economic slowdown wont last forever. People still need to eat, need to buy new houses, need to shop. At one time the market will pick up again and 2010 seems to be the most likely year for it to pick up back again. Nowadays, we have a short property cycle. "
Tina wrote:
"If that happens, local and foreign investors will lose all their confidence in Singapore property segment. It will be a tough job for Singapore to attract them again. As such, the government will do the balancing act of maintaining price in a way that it wont accelerate up too much but it wont go down too much either. "
Karen wrote:
"Govt is already doing the balancing act by trying not to over-supply but that the balancing act is difficult because upgraders are applying for new flats thinking they're sure to make money (just like in the 90s). Developers are setting unaffordable prices, so more HDB need to be supplied. So by the time these new flats are ready, will there be over supply ? (That's exactly the problem in the 90s that has caused so many new HDB flats to stay vacant for years and price to fall.) I don't wish to see this but ppl are now pressing for govt to build more HDB, and govt has to go on meeting the demand. "
Anonymous wrote:
"Hmm i dont think govt is building as many HDBs as what happens in 1998, and early 2000s. In fact, there is a reduction in devt of HDBs now as most of the construction works are now focusing on the IR. Demand for HDB now is like hot cakes. Many resale units able to sell within less than 2 months on average. Just look at the number of cranes at Marina Bay and we should know how big and mega this IR project is. As such, dont be pessimistic of Singapore's future. The IR is not only a place just for gambling but also set to be Asia's leading conference and event location, bringing in millions of foreigners from overseas to come to Singapore. It will be an interesting convention centre for the rich and famous to mingle, park their money here and invest in the region. If you expect the IR to fail, I sincerely believe you will be disappointed. "
Tina wrote:
"What we can possibly see is a reduction in property price by up to 30%. Even then, this will only apply to certain locations especially prime condos which are targeted by speculators. Certain locations or condos would not experience the 30% drop. Some will only experience 10% or some remain constant because they are not speculators' choice condos. "
Karen wrote:
"Don't think so. One market segment will affect another, sooner or later. The question therefore is how long is this economic turmoil going to last and how badly will Singapore be affected. Mr Wee is of the opinion that it'll take 2 yrs to recover... in my opinion, that's long enough for the entire property market to feel the impact."
Anonymous wrote:
"If you see the trend happening last year, you should also apply the same trend for this year. Last year, prices of certain projects near IR like The Sail, Sentosa Cove and D9, D10 condos were chased up by 100% or even more. As such, these are SPECULATOR condos which will see the dramatic price drop of up to 30% or more. The answer for this correction is simple - rental demand cant support price expectations. Whereas, suburban condos and certain unknown developments which are still now selling for less than $1000psf should either experience a 10% drop or No drop (Stagnant) at all. There are also some condos of which prices have gone up by a mere 20-30% only for the past 2-3 years. These are the ones which hold opportunities to buy. I am not telling you that price wont drop at all. What I am saying there are still pockets of opportunities in the downturn market just before its pick up again in 2010."
Tina wrote:
"As such, my take is when IR is about to complete, there will be an upsurge in demand for condo leading to price going up 20% at least for certain condos near the IR. But this might just be short term reaction. I am not sure. But one thing for sure is price will definitely go up when IR about to complete. There are certain interests in the government and the private sector that wants to see renewed activity in the property segment just before the IR goes up. To give a FEEL GOOD factor to every Singaporeans and foreigners alike. "
Karen wrote:
"Yours is the happy scenario. Again, it depends on the economy. If the economy gets worse, we may see the very sad scenario: IR fails. It's not for the spore government to do anything to change the global economy, so the risk of IR failing is always there and getting worse each day. "
Anonymous wrote:
Dont be too negative. If IR fails, the whole world will view Singapore differently from 2010 onwards. Singapore and its government will not allow that to happen. We Singaporeans cant allow that to happen either. Singapore is our only future now. If Singapore fails, all of us Singaporeans will fail too. What you see now is a temporary cooling of property market which is healthy. Cause last year price was chased up by speculators, as such some minor adjustments need to be done for 2008,2009. Lets think constructively - Las Vegas Sands take a risk of investing up to billions of dollars in the IR so as Genting while the Singapore government spend billions of dollars on the infrastructures and paving way for mega offices in Marina Bay area. Are you telling me that all these plans will go down the drain with failures ??? My gut feel is that once IR comes into the picture, we will definitely see a new Singapore in the making. We Singaporeans need to adjust ourself to this new trademark and get used to Singapore being 'expensive' in many sense.This is also to justify the reasons why the government is supplying more and more BTO HDBs to support the local aspiring population knowing that one day, real private property will be out of reach of many normal Singaporeans. "
Tina wrote:
"If you are an investor and you want to capitalise on current cooling sentiments, you should make the plunge when the time is right or when the condo is right ! As the government/PM Lee said, its good that property market now is taking a breather. It offers some room for people to make their final purchase before the final league of the property boom comes to take place in 2010. "
Karen wrote:
"If you believe Spore is going to grow despite the woes in the global economy, I guess you're at least half-right. Property market will be lifted by IRs' success (if it's successful) but increased supply will still moderate any increase in prices. "
Anonymous wrote:
"I agree with you that there will be increased supply, but there will also be increased demand at that time too. In addition, those OCR projects near IR will get the greatest price growth in 2010 cause presently they are seriously undervalued. "
Tina wrote:
"This 2010 property boom will take place but as to how long it will last again is anybody's guess."
Karen wrote:
"I don't know if there's going to be a property boom in 2010. I hope so. But one thing I'm sure: The 2007 property boom is over for the private property market. "
Anonymous wrote:
"True the 2007 property boom is over but boom and bust is part and parcel of the property market. The bust which is happening now is so mild compared to what happen in 1998, 2004. Its mild due to the IR fever, F1 and many other positivities which keep all of us going, which keep lots of investors still coming here etc...in opposite to the bad news happening in the US, Europe. Truly this millennium will be for the Asians "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
With Completion of Marina Bay Integrated Resort, what's Singapore Property Outlook in the next 2-3 yrs
The following forum discussion on the outlook of Singapore property in the next 2-3 years in view of the completion of the Integrated Resosrt is extracted from the Singapore Property Forum. It has been orgainised to help readers focus on the topic.Tina wrote:
"I think property price will drop but wont drop so much cause Singapore now is different from Singapore in 1998 or 2004. "
Karen wrote:
"I'd like to think that you're right but I'm really not so sure about that. "
Anonymous wrote:
"I am sure about that cause Singapore has something in the offering by 2010, which is the opening of the world's largest casino and IR. I can foresee growing number of Chinese, westerners and Arabs coming here on long visits. Based on my contacts with foreign buyers, they have already indicated huge interest in the IR concept. "
Tina wrote:
"now is different from Singapore in 1998 or 2004.
We have a bigger/richer consumer market, stronger S$, a much firmed government to contain recession, and a strong reserve. On top of that, Asian economies are also getting stronger."
Karen wrote:
"bigger consumer market, yes but seems to me, not so rich cos otherwise we won't be seeing all the downgrading to HDB "
Anonymous wrote:
"Well some people downgrading is natural as cost of living goes up. Same like what happen in HK. More and more people from overseas are coming here. As such, we can expect more downgrading to happen as private condo owners sell their units to well-off foreigners and they downgrade to save the profits. "
Tina wrote:
"My take is if anyone expects property price to drop to prices like in 2004/05, they will be disappointed cause it will never happen. There are thousands of people who have already bought their units at high prices last year and in 2006. And if this happen, it will be catastrophe to Singapore. Catastrophe to its population, many of which own a private or HDB. They certainly do not wish to see their main asset component to drop in value eroding their long term wealth. "
Karen wrote:
"...if spore economy slums into a recession worse than the last one, who can stop property price from falling like 2004/05 ? It's not about who'll be disappointed, it's about Singapore being a small, open economy with little control over its destiny. Wee Cho Yaw has said that this financial crisis is the worst he has seen in like 50 yrs, which means it's worse than the last Asian financial crisis. So who can predict if Singpore economy won't get worse than the last recession we saw ? I wish it doesn't happen but wish is one thing, reality is another. The threat is growing each day. "
Anonymous wrote:
"Well I understand your pessimism, but put it this way, the economic slowdown wont last forever. People still need to eat, need to buy new houses, need to shop. At one time the market will pick up again and 2010 seems to be the most likely year for it to pick up back again. Nowadays, we have a short property cycle. "
Tina wrote:
"If that happens, local and foreign investors will lose all their confidence in Singapore property segment. It will be a tough job for Singapore to attract them again. As such, the government will do the balancing act of maintaining price in a way that it wont accelerate up too much but it wont go down too much either. "
Karen wrote:
"Govt is already doing the balancing act by trying not to over-supply but that the balancing act is difficult because upgraders are applying for new flats thinking they're sure to make money (just like in the 90s). Developers are setting unaffordable prices, so more HDB need to be supplied. So by the time these new flats are ready, will there be over supply ? (That's exactly the problem in the 90s that has caused so many new HDB flats to stay vacant for years and price to fall.) I don't wish to see this but ppl are now pressing for govt to build more HDB, and govt has to go on meeting the demand. "
Anonymous wrote:
"Hmm i dont think govt is building as many HDBs as what happens in 1998, and early 2000s. In fact, there is a reduction in devt of HDBs now as most of the construction works are now focusing on the IR. Demand for HDB now is like hot cakes. Many resale units able to sell within less than 2 months on average. Just look at the number of cranes at Marina Bay and we should know how big and mega this IR project is. As such, dont be pessimistic of Singapore's future. The IR is not only a place just for gambling but also set to be Asia's leading conference and event location, bringing in millions of foreigners from overseas to come to Singapore. It will be an interesting convention centre for the rich and famous to mingle, park their money here and invest in the region. If you expect the IR to fail, I sincerely believe you will be disappointed. "
Tina wrote:
"What we can possibly see is a reduction in property price by up to 30%. Even then, this will only apply to certain locations especially prime condos which are targeted by speculators. Certain locations or condos would not experience the 30% drop. Some will only experience 10% or some remain constant because they are not speculators' choice condos. "
Karen wrote:
"Don't think so. One market segment will affect another, sooner or later. The question therefore is how long is this economic turmoil going to last and how badly will Singapore be affected. Mr Wee is of the opinion that it'll take 2 yrs to recover... in my opinion, that's long enough for the entire property market to feel the impact."
Anonymous wrote:
"If you see the trend happening last year, you should also apply the same trend for this year. Last year, prices of certain projects near IR like The Sail, Sentosa Cove and D9, D10 condos were chased up by 100% or even more. As such, these are SPECULATOR condos which will see the dramatic price drop of up to 30% or more. The answer for this correction is simple - rental demand cant support price expectations. Whereas, suburban condos and certain unknown developments which are still now selling for less than $1000psf should either experience a 10% drop or No drop (Stagnant) at all. There are also some condos of which prices have gone up by a mere 20-30% only for the past 2-3 years. These are the ones which hold opportunities to buy. I am not telling you that price wont drop at all. What I am saying there are still pockets of opportunities in the downturn market just before its pick up again in 2010."
Tina wrote:
"As such, my take is when IR is about to complete, there will be an upsurge in demand for condo leading to price going up 20% at least for certain condos near the IR. But this might just be short term reaction. I am not sure. But one thing for sure is price will definitely go up when IR about to complete. There are certain interests in the government and the private sector that wants to see renewed activity in the property segment just before the IR goes up. To give a FEEL GOOD factor to every Singaporeans and foreigners alike. "
Karen wrote:
"Yours is the happy scenario. Again, it depends on the economy. If the economy gets worse, we may see the very sad scenario: IR fails. It's not for the spore government to do anything to change the global economy, so the risk of IR failing is always there and getting worse each day. "
Anonymous wrote:
Dont be too negative. If IR fails, the whole world will view Singapore differently from 2010 onwards. Singapore and its government will not allow that to happen. We Singaporeans cant allow that to happen either. Singapore is our only future now. If Singapore fails, all of us Singaporeans will fail too. What you see now is a temporary cooling of property market which is healthy. Cause last year price was chased up by speculators, as such some minor adjustments need to be done for 2008,2009. Lets think constructively - Las Vegas Sands take a risk of investing up to billions of dollars in the IR so as Genting while the Singapore government spend billions of dollars on the infrastructures and paving way for mega offices in Marina Bay area. Are you telling me that all these plans will go down the drain with failures ??? My gut feel is that once IR comes into the picture, we will definitely see a new Singapore in the making. We Singaporeans need to adjust ourself to this new trademark and get used to Singapore being 'expensive' in many sense.This is also to justify the reasons why the government is supplying more and more BTO HDBs to support the local aspiring population knowing that one day, real private property will be out of reach of many normal Singaporeans. "
Tina wrote:
"If you are an investor and you want to capitalise on current cooling sentiments, you should make the plunge when the time is right or when the condo is right ! As the government/PM Lee said, its good that property market now is taking a breather. It offers some room for people to make their final purchase before the final league of the property boom comes to take place in 2010. "
Karen wrote:
"If you believe Spore is going to grow despite the woes in the global economy, I guess you're at least half-right. Property market will be lifted by IRs' success (if it's successful) but increased supply will still moderate any increase in prices. "
Anonymous wrote:
"I agree with you that there will be increased supply, but there will also be increased demand at that time too. In addition, those OCR projects near IR will get the greatest price growth in 2010 cause presently they are seriously undervalued. "
Tina wrote:
"This 2010 property boom will take place but as to how long it will last again is anybody's guess."
Karen wrote:
"I don't know if there's going to be a property boom in 2010. I hope so. But one thing I'm sure: The 2007 property boom is over for the private property market. "
Anonymous wrote:
"True the 2007 property boom is over but boom and bust is part and parcel of the property market. The bust which is happening now is so mild compared to what happen in 1998, 2004. Its mild due to the IR fever, F1 and many other positivities which keep all of us going, which keep lots of investors still coming here etc...in opposite to the bad news happening in the US, Europe. Truly this millennium will be for the Asians "
May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
Your Property Investment Determines Your Financial Success in Your Life
HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase
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The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.
Smart Buyer :)