Saturday, July 12, 2008

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What does MM Lee's "Most Promising Decade" mean - Visualize: Modern Infrastructure & Architecture, Integrated Resort & Casinos, 6.5M Population ..

Bull said:
In his (MM Lee Kuan Yew) latest comment, "Spore is at his most promising decade".
In next 10 years, with 7-8% GDP per year, to achieve 40% of household are US$Millionaire is easy. If based on this projection, property will be easily 200% of today's price, buy now or continue to wait, you decide. For those who like to wait, continue to wait. You don't deserve such progress made by this country.

Bear said:
Actually, I've been wondering what exactly does MM Lee mean by "most promising decade"?

Did he mean the period of highest economic growth? Well, Singapore enjoyed double-digit growth in the 90s. MM Lee's projection for the next 5-10 years is 4-6%, at most 8%, not double digits. So I conclude "most promising" cannot mean the period of highest economic growth.

Did he mean the period of highest property price increase? Certainly not, I think. Sustainable property price increase must go in tandem with economic growth, so it should be 4-6%, at most 8%. Given property price has already risen more than 30%, we'd need some years for economic growth to catch up with current property price. OR for property price to fall to a more sustainable level before stabilising.

Did he mean the period where Singapore will have the most modern architecture and infrastructure? I think so.

Is this part of a politician sales pitch? I think so.

Another Bear said:
Singapore's economy is seeing a lot of headwind. F1 did not bring in the money it has promised. Hotels have to start lowering their room charges. We cannot afford to have the IRs fail. So we should expect the government to sell really hard at a time like that. We should be thankful for that but let's not forget our vulnerability too.
Extracted from the Singapore Property Forum

May also want to read:
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Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation
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HDB Resales: West Sees Highest Price Increase


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