Saturday, May 17, 2008

About this Blog


Posted by: LEN
Posted: 24-04-2008

Over the last 30 years the property market has gone up and down. But the macro picture is more up than down. Just a few years back the market was talking about the final days of the rise in property values. All was gloom and doom. Singapore has no future with China in the limelight. It was THE END for Singapore properties. Prices will never, never go back to the 1990's again, we were told by so-called EXPERTS.

Then came the surge again. In a short span of one year property values surpass the previous highs, especially HDB flats and prime properties. Now that it has gone too high, the market is talking down again. Cloudy skies ahead. The market will crash again. This time, the market says, it will be for real. I twill be deep and long. US recession. Sub prime issues. World economic slump ahead. So the whole episode will repeat itself again as I understand it.

A little bit like the stock market it seems.

So how does the small man who needs a roof over this head, stands? Or the big man who cash out stands? Both, it seems, will wait for the next downtime. Buy low and sell high in future. Simple? I am not sure.

Just a few thoughts which I wish to pen here. I don't know whether I am right or not:

1) If one has one house, then the theory does not work very well. At a given time, if one sells low he will be able to buy low. Similarly if he sells high he has to buy high.

2) If one has more than one house, the theory might work for him. So he is a speculator. But if caught during a prolonged downturn, the holding costs are high and he may not profit. So he must be in a perfect timing.

3) If one has no home, like the first timer, he should buy only during the downturn, if he can wait. If not, then his luck counts a lot. If his needs happen during a downturn, he is lucky if he has the money and a job to keep his confidence high. If his needs happen during the peak then he is in for financial burden if he is complacent not to pay up his house asap when he still has a good job.

4) For home owners without the nerve and who has anxiety problems, they should stay out of the market if he don't need to buy a house. Especially if they already has a fully paid-up home and a decent job.

5) The truth is that nobody really knows the future. If we know we will all be rich. We based our decisions on past perfermance and many a times on market sentiments at a given point in time which are substantiated by one economic factor or another by the so-called EXPERTS.

6) The bottom line, I guess, is the question of NEED. If there is not need to sell don't sell. If there is no need to buy don't buy. For the ordinary folks there will be less tears and more smiles, and their heartbeats will not be erratic. IT IS THE QUESTION OF NEED VERSUS GREED.


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The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.

Smart Buyer :)