Tuesday, June 24, 2008

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Analysts Mixed Over Singapore Property Outlook

If you think you're confused over what to make out of the Singapore property market outlook, you're not alone. The experts, with all their statistical data and analysis, are divided, and as confused, over the Singapore property outlook.

房地产后市走势 证券行看法不一
尽管市区重建局日前发布的数字显示上个月卖出的新私宅单位猛飙了55%至441个单位,而政府表示在下半年也会减少售地,各家证券行仍然对本地房地产后市的看法不一,其中联昌国际研究 (CIMB Bank Research) 与华侨银行投资研究 (OCBC Investment Research) 继续对私宅走势持中立立场,但星展集团研究 (DBS Group Research)和金英证券研究 (Kim Eng Securities Research) 却大致上持乐观态度。
联昌国际研究说,楼花转售(sub-sale)市场的一些私宅交易价格比去年9月的水平低了20%到40%,然而新住宅价格却依然保持平稳。考虑到截至目前为止只推出2100个新单位,明年可能出现过剩的新供应恐会对新私宅价格造成压力,同时潜在的滞胀(stagflation)环境也将不利于中高档房地产的走势,因此联昌国际对本地房地产业抱着中立态度,并预测住宅市场短期而言会缺乏方向。 -Zaobao 23 June 2008

Banks Divided Over Property Market Outlook
Despite that URA's data has shown a sharp increase of 55% in property sales with 441 units sold, and the government has expressed that land sales will be reduced in the second half of the year; banks remain divided over the Singapore property market outlook. While CIMB Bank Research and OCBC Investment Research remain neutral over the private property market outlook, DBS Group Research and Kim Eng Securities Research are bullish.
According to CIMB Research, subsales of some private properties are 20% to 40% lower than the prices in september last year. However, prices of new properties remain firm. Considering that only 2100 units have been launched so far, we may see an over-supply next year that may put (downward) pressure on the prices of new properties. Furthemore, the enviromental factor of stagflation is not favourable to the high end property market outlook too. As such, CIMB remains neutral over the property market outlook, and believes that the property market would lack direction in the short term. -Zaobao 23 June 2008

Analysts’ views mixed over H2 GLS list
While some read the moderate supply as a plus for property prices, others feel it reaffirms the weak market sentiment...

Deutsche Bank analysts have pegged a ‘buy’ call to City Developments and Keppel Land, but add that they continue to prefer Reits over the developers.

Credit Suisse analyst Tricia Song says that she continues to see negative headwinds for the Singapore property sector in the near term, given potentially rising interest rates, construction costs, supply completions and falling rents. She is keeping her ‘underweight’ call on the property sector, with ‘underweight’ ratings for City Developments and Wing Tai, but ‘neutral’ calls for CapitaLand, Allgreen and Keppel Land.

For Nomura, the sound supply outlook for residential units - which the Urban Redevelopment Authority estimates to be 59,545 completed units between end-2007 and end-2011 - is ‘unnerving’. It hence retained its bearish stance on the residential sector where it foresees further downside pressures in asset prices from marginal speculative sellers. It has a ‘neutral’ rating on City Developments and Keppel Land and a ‘reduce’ rating on CapitaLand. - Business Times - 23 Jun 2008

May also want to read:
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
When to Buy, When Not to by
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Smart Buyers, 10 reasons to wait
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation


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