Wednesday, June 18, 2008

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Singapore Exports Down Sharply in May: Singapore Economy Not Decoupled from US

Singapore's key exports down 10.5% in May on-year
Singapore's key exports fell 10.5 percent in May compared with a year earlier, with pharmaceutical shipments down nearly half amid lower exports to the United States and Europe, the government said on Tuesday. The fall in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) was the largest since December 2006 when they dropped 14 percent, Fortis Bank economist Joseph Tan told Dow Jones Newswires.
- CNA 17 Jun 2008

This is a clear sign that slower economic growth in US and Europe is taking a toll on the Singapore economy. In fact, economies in emerging markets like China and India are also expected to slow. So, whether directly or indirectly, Singapore economy is still very dependant on the US economy. The "Decouple Theory" does not seem to hold up after all.

While there is no need yet to push the panic button, this is certainly not good news for the property market. Looking back at past recessions in Singapore, it's almost always led by sharp drop in exports. As far as property goes, I'd advise caution: Wait it out. What seems like a prolonged but gentle slowdown, may suddenly turn into a collapse. The global economic situation is now very volatile. Anyway, Singapore property is definitely no bargain today, so if "you can afford to wait, wait".

May also want to read:
History of Singapore Property 1960 to 2008
Buy or Not Buy: How to decide amid mixed market signals
Smart Buyers, 10 reasons to wait
Property Price Index Graph Plotter & Online Property Valuation


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The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.

Smart Buyer :)